Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Bismarck, ND

042 
WWUS53 KBIS 172317
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
617 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

NDC093-172326-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-200617T2330Z/
Stutsman ND-
617 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN STUTSMAN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved east of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4650 9833 4657 9854 4663 9850 4663 9820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 207DEG 28KT 4663 9838 

$$

NDC045-172330-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-200617T2330Z/
LaMoure ND-
617 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAMOURE COUNTY...

At 616 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Marion, or 24
miles northeast of Edgeley, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of north
central LaMoure County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4650 9833 4657 9854 4663 9850 4663 9820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 207DEG 28KT 4663 9838 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ABELING

070 
WWUS53 KBIS 172324
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
624 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

NDC045-172334-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-200617T2330Z/
LaMoure ND-
624 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAMOURE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4650 9833 4657 9854 4663 9850 4663 9820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 207DEG 28KT 4667 9835 

$$

ABELING

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
522 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 521 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

This update for Severe Thunderstorm watch 282 until 11 pm CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Severe thunderstorm potential in parts of south central ND into
the James River valley is our focus through this evening.

As of 19 UTC, a nearly stationary frontal zone extends from near
Linton to Carrington. Elevated convection continues near and to
the cool side of the boundary, with low-level theta-e advection
ongoing in the moist sector where surface dewpoints have risen
into the middle and upper 60s F. Steep midlevel lapse rates are
contributing to moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE from
2000-3000 J/kg, and model simulations and RAP objective analysis
data suggests MLCIN is quickly becoming minimized with boundary
layer heating and moistening. Forecast soundings are strongly in
agreement that a warm nose near 700 mb will persist until close
to 00 UTC, which along with initially weak confluence along the
stationary boundary casts some doubt on the timing of surface-
based convective initiation. In contrast, low-level water vapor
imagery has been showing a subtle midlevel impulse embedded in
southwest flow aloft that is approaching central SD, and recent
visible satellite imagery reveals subtle cirrus associated with
this impulse near Phillip, SD, as of 1930 UTC. Extrapolation of
this feature and in particular its associated cirrus -- which
likely reflects ascent and cooling aloft required for convective
initiation -- has it reaching the frontal zone in south central
ND between 2130 and 2230 UTC. Shallow cumulus near the deeper
moist layer near the frontal zone and the elevated convection in
its vicinity are contributing to notable differential heating and
the augmentation of the low-level ascent and the approach of the
aforementioned impulse aloft is increasing our confidence in the
initiation of surface-based thunderstorms initially near an axis
from Linton and Napoleon toward Carrington around 22 UTC.

Some uncertainty remains in the timing of convective initiation
given the lingering warm nose aloft in forecast soundings and a
disparate set of solutions from CAMs, including the HRRR, which
has held off initiation until closer to 00 UTC and mainly east
of our forecast area. However, that's a known bias of the HRRR,
and our confidence in the timing and evolution is increasing as
the previously-mentioned observational trends come in focus.

Once storms develop, they will be propagating in an environment
characterized by effective shear on the order of 30-40 kt, which
supports both organized multicells and potential supercells with
the magnitude of instability present. Given a modest orthogonal
component of deep-layer shear vectors to the frontal zone, some
initially-discrete supercell modes are possible, though weaker
high-level flow and right-moving supercell motion vectors from
~230 degrees -- closer to the orientation of the boundary -- do
suggest messy modes could evolve in time. Still, the CAPE-shear
setting and steep lapse rates continue to support advertising
hail up to golf ball size, further advocated by analysis of SPC
SARS output. Some explicit sounding analog matches do show
potential for larger hailstone sizes given the large instability
and high inflow-layer theta-e, but the potential for messy modes
means we are not advertising that at this juncture. We will also
continue to message damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. There is a
non-zero tornado risk given 0-1-km SRH increasing to between 100
and 150 m2/s2 in the James River valley by early evening, but we
have refrained from explicitly mentioning that at this time with-
out stronger deep-layer shear and marginally-favorable MLLCL
heights, along with potential for messy storm modes.

Based on HREF-SREF blended severe-storm timing guidance, we feel
that the risk of severe thunderstorms will subside by 06 UTC.

Otherwise, the larger middle- and upper-level trough is forecast
to lift northeast into southern Canada by Thursday as it evolves
into a slow-moving low aloft. A jet core and embedded shortwave
trough rotating around that feature could bring another round of
showers and a few thunderstorms to south central areas overnight
and early Thursday morning. Ultimately, this evolution will also
drive another cold frontal zone eastward by Thursday and that is
forecast to lead to a breezy day. We weighted the forecast toward
the higher, MOS-based wind guidance on Thursday. A cyclonic flow
regime could yield low-topped convection, but we relegated PoPs
mainly to southwestern ND where forecast soundings suggest less
influence from a midlevel subsidence inversion than elsewhere
during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

We will be in a seasonable, albeit slightly cooler pattern on the
whole through the long term, with a few chances of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly this weekend.

On Thursday night, the 12 UTC model suite is consistent showing a
strong surface high moving through the Northern High Plains, with
light winds and a subsidence regime supportive of lows likely in
the 35 to 40 F range in parts of southwestern ND. We will need to
consider the potential for frost in this setup.

Thereafter, the upper-level low in southern Canada will slowly be
shifting eastward amid synoptic-scale blocking. The cyclonic flow
on the southern flank of the low and potential impulses embedded
in it will bring some chance of showers and storms this weekend,
with a slow drying trend early next week. The 12 UTC ECMWF and GFS
suggest a non-zero risk of stronger storms Saturday, though the 00
UTC GEFS-based CIPS analog severe probabilities suggest relatively
low confidence in that. The overall flow may become less cyclonic
by early next week, leading to lower precipitation probabilities
in ensemble guidance. Highs through the period will generally be
in the 70s to lower 80s F.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

A nearly stationary front in central ND will serve as the focus
for showers and thunderstorms through tonight, with potential
impacts at KBIS and KJMS. Severe storms could impact KJMS in the
late afternoon and evening. Otherwise, a few showers and weaker
storms could move into western ND late this afternoon through
tonight with another cold front. MVFR ceilings appear likely in
the wake of that second cold front over western ND late tonight
and Thursday morning, with the main uncertainty being how far
east the lower ceilings in stratus reaches.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...CJS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
535 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>036-040>046-182245-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Slope-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
535 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 /435 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms Tonight. Severe weather is not
anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

NDZ025-037-047-048-050-051-182245-
Foster-Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
535 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast tonight. Some storms could
be severe in the James River Valley of south central North Dakota,
with wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to golf ball size
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to send severe weather reports to law
enforcement, NWS Bismarck social media, or directly to NWS
Bismarck by calling 701-250-4224.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1208 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TUTTLE                  47.14N 99.99W
06/17/2020                   KIDDER             ND   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE BRANCHES WERE BLOW DOWN IN
            TUTTLE. THEY ALSO RECEIVED 1.5 INCHES OF
            RAIN.

&&

CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1216 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W HANNOVER            47.12N 101.56W
06/16/2020                   OLIVER             ND   PUBLIC

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS DAMAGED THE SCREEN DOOR
            TO A HOUSE. THE WINDS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY
            PEA SIZE HAIL. REPORT RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
237 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 N DRISCOLL            46.89N 100.14W
06/17/2020  E80 MPH          BURLEIGH           ND   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 80 MPH WINDS CAUSED THE LOSS OF
            TWO BARNS AND A POLE BUILDING. REPORT
            RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

CK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
552 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

NDZ037-048-172315-
La Moure ND-Stutsman ND-
552 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LAMOURE AND
SOUTHEASTERN STUTSMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 552 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Dickey, or 12
miles northeast of Edgeley, moving north at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Adrian and Dickey.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4641 9843 4644 9864 4669 9856 4667 9844
      4663 9844 4663 9824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 198DEG 34KT 4647 9851

ABELING