Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1223 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Will increase southerly winds across the James River valley area
to 30 to 45 mph fro a few hours tonight. Strong 60kt low level jet
moving through will Keep winds strong tonight.

Otherwise, strong thunderstorms will be confined to the north
central for the next few hours.

UPDATE Issued at 917 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

Forgot to remove the Wind advisory...this corrects that.

UPDATE Issued at 910 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

Thunderstorms continue to try and break through the CAP this
evening, but so far none have been successful. As the cold front
in western North Dakota moves a little more east this evening we
should see more convection, as a single storm or several clusters
of storms,from just west of Bismarck north into central North
Dakota.

In the meantime, we will cancel teh wind advisory as winds have
diminished below advisory criteria.

UPDATE Issued at 756 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

We will cancel the wind advisory for south central North Dakota,
and keep the advisory for the James River Valley going until 10
pm.

UPDATE Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

Current radars show convective initiation over northeast Bowman
county, at least one cell at this time. This is very close to the
HRR timing and location, so we have some confidence the HRR CAM
model is probably on track. Current forecast looks good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

Severe thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through tonight
west and central, and late Wednesday afternoon and evening across
the James River valley, is the focus of the short term forecast.

As of 20 UTC, surface pressure falls on the order of 2-3 mb/3 hrs
are centered on northwest and north central ND with related mass-
field responses of thermal and moisture advection ongoing. RAP-
based objective analyses show strong MLCIN at this hour, which is
consistent with the warm elevated mixed layer sampled by the 12
UTC RAOBs. Forecast soundings from multiple model cores including
the 12 UTC CAMs suggest weakening MLCIN by late afternoon as low-
level theta-e advection continues, though residual capping still
remains in most profiles, casting uncertainty on the probability
of surface-based convective initiation through early evening. It
does, however, appear that the window of opportunity for surface-
based convection will be focused in west central ND roughly along
and ~75 miles east of the Highway 22 corridor, northward to about
Stanley and across the western end of Lake Sakakawea. It's along
that corridor where a low-level wind shift is forecast to reach
by 00 UTC. The length of the wind shift will have a non-zero risk
of convective initiation. However, two mesoscale areas of focus
could be around the western end of Lake Sakakawea, where the low-
level thermal ridge axis may overlap the moist axis closer to a
surface low in northwest and north central ND, and around the
Dickinson area where low-level warm air advection may be most
focused the next few hours.

The CAPE-shear setting through early evening for any surface-based
parcels will be characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg,
effective shear magnitudes of 40-50 kt, and very steep low- and
midlevel lapse rates. Given at least a modest orthogonal component
of deep-layer wind fields to the surface wind shift, and the large
amount of capping present, discrete modes -- and supercells -- are
favored. This setting favors the possibility of very large hail up
to baseball size along with damaging gusts, though again this is a
very conditional risk. CAMs through the 19 UTC HRRR are relatively
consistent in this scenario though, with modest probabilities and
clustering of UH >150 m2/s2 from the 12 UTC HREF centered on west
central ND. Low-level hodographs enlarge with time toward sunset,
but the relatively modest boundary layer moisture with dewpoints
generally in the 60 F range will contribute to MLLCL heights close
to 2000 m AGL, which will constrain the tornado risk.

Otherwise, from late evening through about 09 UTC, convection will
likely increase in coverage toward a scattered nature as heights
aloft fall more steadily as an upper-level trough shifts eastward.
Forecast soundings support related cooling of the warm elevated
mixed layer, while a strong low-level wind maximum on the order of
50-60 kt as low as 2000 ft AGL continues moisture transport along
and ahead of an eastward-shifting cool frontal boundary. This may
allow for clusters of elevated strong to severe convection, when
and where moisture profiles are deep enough for elevated parcels
to have reduced MUCIN while MUCAPE remains in the 2000-3000 J/kg
range. Given the elevated nature of the effective inflow layers
after dark in this setting, as supported by forecast soundings,
hodographs will become shorter and thus effective shear overnight
will decrease closer to 40 kt. As a result, we are messaging hail
up to golf ball size with overnight storms along with a continued
risk of damaging gusts.

On Wednesday, the surface front will shift eastward and may again
result in surface-based convective initiation in the James River
valley by late day. However, there is spread among 12 UTC models
with how far east the front will be by the time initiation occurs,
and deep-layer shear vectors will be oriented parallel to the
front. Thus, messy convective modes are expected, which may limit
the ceiling of the severe risk, but large CAPE will be present to
compensate to some extent.

Finally, the Wind Advisory through this evening is on target,
with forecast soundings in the Ashley, Oakes, and Jamestown areas
all supporting peak winds at the top of the mixed layer in the 45
to 50 kt range from 21 to 00 UTC, suggesting near high wind
criteria south winds. We've increased messaging in the advisory
for gusts to 55 mph, though confidence in more than isolated gusts
nearing warning criteria within the low-level warm air advection
regime was too low to upgrade any counties to a warning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

Cooler, but seasonable temperatures and periodic shower and storm
chances will highlight the long term, including the weekend.

The consensus of the 00 through 12 UTC global deterministic and
ensemble suites calls for a middle- and upper-level low to evolve
over south central Canada by Thursday as the initial trough aloft
lifts northeastward. The middle- and upper-level low is forecast
to only slowly shift eastward through in the succeeding days, with
cyclonic flow and lower heights on its southern flank in place in
the northern Plains. Some spread exists in the 850 mb temperatures
forecast by individual GEFS members, but the coldest air is likely
to arrive late this week with NBM-driven forecast highs only in
the 60s in the west and north Thursday, and forecast lows Thursday
night in the 40s in most areas. Confidence in temperature trends
is above average through the weekend -- with forecast highs mainly
in the 70s F, but with a slow warming trend -- given a relatively
small one standard deviation in NBM membership forecasts. We have
a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast many times
and places, but it won't be a washout; predictability of impulses
embedded in the flow is low, and activity will likely be diurnally
driven. By early next week, it appears midlevel heights will begin
to rise, leading to a drying and warming trend, though the exact
timing of that transition is somewhat uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Hazards to aviation include strong wind shear of 18060kt from
1500 ft agl to the surface for KJMS til 09z.

Otherwise scattered thunderstorms from KMOT-KBIS through 09z.

Another line of thunderstorms expected to develop KJMS after 21z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...WAA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1231 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-180545-
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-
Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
1231 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 /1131 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms through tonight. Severe
weather is not anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to send severe weather reports to law
enforcement, NWS Bismarck social media, or directly to NWS
Bismarck by calling 701-250-4224.

NDZ002>005-010>013-019>021-180545-
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-
1231 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 /1131 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, and south central North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms in north central North Dakota
tonight. These storms will have a risk of large hail up to half
dollar and damaging winds up to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to send severe weather reports to law
enforcement, NWS Bismarck social media, or directly to NWS
Bismarck by calling 701-250-4224.

NDZ022-023-034>036-042-045-046-180545-
Sheridan-Wells-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-
1231 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020 /1131 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast tonight in central North
Dakota. Some storms could be severe with wind gusts up to 70 mph.
The potential for severe thunderstorms in central North Dakota is
greatest though 4 am CDT, or 3 am MDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to send severe weather reports to law
enforcement, NWS Bismarck social media, or directly to NWS
Bismarck by calling 701-250-4224.

NDZ025-037-047-048-050-051-180545-
Foster-Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1231 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms through tonight. Severe
weather is not anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday evening in
parts of south central and southeast North Dakota, including the
James River valley. The main threats will be large hail to golf
ball size and damaging winds up to 70 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

waa

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1141 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 PM     HAIL             MOHALL                  48.76N 101.51W
06/16/2020  M1.00 INCH       RENVILLE           ND   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

JNS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1141 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

NDZ003-004-011-170500-
Bottineau ND-Ward ND-Renville ND-
1141 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WARD...SOUTHWESTERN
BOTTINEAU AND SOUTH CENTRAL RENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1140 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles northeast
of Carpio, or 18 miles south of Mohall, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carpio, Foxholm and Grano.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4836 10155 4846 10177 4865 10160 4866 10142
      4856 10134
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 214DEG 44KT 4849 10159

EDWARDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1148 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

NDZ010-011-018>021-170530-
Mountrail ND-Oliver ND-Mercer ND-Ward ND-McLean ND-Dunn ND-
1148 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WARD...NORTHEASTERN
DUNN...MCLEAN...SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTRAIL...OLIVER AND NORTHEASTERN
MERCER COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT/1130 PM MDT/...

At 1147 PM CDT/1047 PM MDT/, strong thunderstorms were located along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Van Hook Park to 7 miles
south of Douglas to 5 miles south of Center. Movement was north at 25
mph.

Wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Garrison, Washburn, Hazen, New Town, Parshall, Underwood, Center,
Stanton, Max, Riverdale, Plaza, Makoti, Pick City, Ryder, Coleharbor,
Benedict, Rice Lake, Douglas, Roseglen and Indian Hills Recreation
Area.

LAT...LON 4787 10097 4698 10096 4698 10137 4756 10193
      4758 10248 4797 10257 4800 10255 4800 10257
      4817 10261 4818 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 184DEG 21KT 4783 10245 4776 10155 4703 10130

HOLLAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1226 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

NDZ003-170600-
Renville ND-
1226 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RENVILLE COUNTY
UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

At 1226 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles south of
Greene, or 16 miles southwest of Mohall, moving north at 50 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greene and Tolley.

LAT...LON 4884 10157 4846 10163 4846 10184 4872 10184
      4872 10186 4885 10186 4887 10169
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 187DEG 42KT 4857 10173

EDWARDS

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