Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1245 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020

Some vigorous convection remains over the northwest. Currently a
strong to severe storm near Stanley. This is in an area of decent
mid level lapse rates with 40 to 50 knots of shear. Main update
was for pops through the overnight hours.

UPDATE Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

The entire Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. The severe
threat has largely diminished across the area. Isolated
thunderstorms are likely tonight across western and northern North
Dakota, but parameters favor little more than some gusty winds
and small hail from any storms that develop tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

Continued to cancel counties from the Severe Thunderstorm Watch as
the severe threat shifts northward. The severe threat will
continue to diminish and exit the area over the next couple hours.

UPDATE Issued at 846 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

Cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for southwest ND with this
update. The cold front has moved through and significantly
diminished any instability.

UPDATE Issued at 827 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

Wind Advisory has been cancelled. Severe storms continue across
western ND this evening and have maintained their discrete nature.
However, they may/should begin to grow upscale soon and transition
from a hail threat to a wind threat.

UPDATE Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

Increased precipitation chances south and decreased north. A
cluster of storms continues to develop across southwest North
Dakota. These storms will continue to push eastward northeast as a
cold front swings through. Latest indications are the strongest
storms should stay across the southern half of North Dakota
tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

This update is for the severe thunderstorm watch 281 for west and
much of central North Dakota through 11 pm CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

This afternoon, a surface trough/cold front was located on the
Montana/North Dakota border. Scattered showers have moved through
the west half of the state so far today, and these appear
associated with warm advection ahead of the low. The area in
central North Dakota still remains well capped. Also clouds have
kept temperatures cool across much of the west so far.

Several strong cells have formed in west central North Dakota in
an area of weak cap strength and clearing skies. CAM models
agree in developing a line of storms along the cold front that
will move east into central North Dakota by mid evening.

Scattered severe storms are forecast along the front, probably
around and after 4 pm CDT. Initial storm mode will be discrete
with large hail as the shear will be more perpendicular to the
frontal boundary, but more linear modes will lead to a mixed hail
and wind threat evolving as the mid evening hours approach.

After this evening, the overnight will see the front move through
with cooler and drier air expected. Overnight lows tonight in the
lower 50s west to around 70 east.

Monday will be partly to mostly sunny with surface high pressure
moving through the region. Highs should be in the mid 70s to mid
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

Global models in general agreement with h5 upper low across the
northwest CONUS moving east with multiple shortwaves impacting
the northern plains this week. This will lead to an active week
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the
period.

Tuesday will be warm, with highs in the low to mid 90s, cooling to
the 70s and mid 80s the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020

Mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period. Convection
between Williston and Minot through around 09 UTC. LLWS will
continue at KJMS through 12 UTC. Otherwise VFR conditions expected
through the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1248 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020

NDZ019-020-033>037-040>048-050-051-160600-
Mercer-Oliver-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-
Dickey-
1248 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 /1148 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017-018-021>023-025-031-032-160600-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Golden Valley-Billings-
1248 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020 /1148 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are likely tonight. Some storms could be
strong with gusty winds and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1143 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             1 S FAIRFIELD           47.18N 103.22W
06/14/2020  E2.00 INCH       BILLINGS           ND   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 1 S
            FAIRFIELD. DELAYED REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1144 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     HAIL             3 ENE SOUTH FAIRFIELD   47.14N 103.15W
06/14/2020  M1.75 INCH       BILLINGS           ND   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 3 ENE
            SOUTH FAIRFIELD. DELAYED REPORT FROM SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1152 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

NDZ001-150545-
Divide ND-
1152 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DIVIDE COUNTY UNTIL 1245
AM CDT...

At 1152 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles north of
Alamo, or 18 miles southwest of Crosby, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crosby and Noonan.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4900 10294 4884 10294 4863 10329 4863 10366
      4900 10333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0452Z 217DEG 46KT 4868 10347

CJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1213 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020

NDZ010-017-150545-
McKenzie ND-Mountrail ND-
1213 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCKENZIE AND
NORTHERN MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1212 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles north of 4
Bears Lodge, or 19 miles southwest of Stanley, moving northeast at 40
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ross around 1235 AM CDT.
  Stanley around 1240 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include White Earth and White
Earth Bay Recreation Area.

LAT...LON 4840 10202 4795 10256 4807 10284 4813 10283
      4817 10283 4839 10281
TIME...MOT...LOC 0512Z 208DEG 35KT 4810 10264

EDWARDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 AM     HAIL             1 SSW STANLEY           48.30N 102.40W
06/15/2020  M1.00 INCH       MOUNTRAIL          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&