Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Bismarck, ND

486 
WWUS53 KBIS 080540
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

NDC021-045-080550-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0034.000000T0000Z-200608T0545Z/
LaMoure ND-Dickey ND-
1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LAMOURE AND
NORTHEASTERN DICKEY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1245 AM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4612 9821 4622 9862 4663 9815 4663 9804
      4662 9803 4629 9804 4628 9801 4622 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0540Z 222DEG 34KT 4638 9816 

$$

MJONES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
949 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Update to replace the Tornado Watch with a Severe Thunderstorm
watch, as well as adding Burleigh and Sheridan counties to the
Severe Watch. While the tornado threat has decreased this evening,
strong shear and instability exists to continue the large hail and
damaging wind gust potential.

UPDATE Issued at 924 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Tornado threat is diminishing and the tornado watch will be
replaced with a severe thunderstorm watch through early morning.

Numerous thunderstorms will continue central and east through
early morning.

UPDATE Issued at 806 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

At 01Z, convection was ongoing in two separate environmental
regimes. In the James River Valley, increasing 850mb southerly
flow was aiding in increasing convective initiation along the
stalled pressure trough. Recent radar trends show initially
clustered convection south of Dickey county becoming more of a
QLCS type linear system with the beginnings of a northeast push on
the northern end. With deep layer shear vectors oriented from the
southwest to northeast at around 40 kts and effective SRH values
of 150-200 m2/s2, the potential exists for meso-vortex generation
within this line. The area under this threat in the near-term
should be eastern Dickey county.

Further west, an elevated based supercell was located over
Hettinger/Grant county, just west of Heart Butte Dam. With surface
dew points around 50 F and LCLs near 2000 m, the tornado potential
will remain low. Strong deep layer shear and mid-level lapse rates
around 7.5 C should keep the large hail threat going in the near-
term given this cell persists.

Looking to the south, new convection was forming near and south of
the South Dakota border along the Missouri River. With the
atmosphere further north towards Bismarck yet to be convectively
overturned and surface dew points still in the low 60s, ample
instability and shear exists for the severe threat to persist for
at least several more hours.

UPDATE Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

In collaboration with SPC we extended the Tornado Watch further
west into Emmons/Kidder/Foster counties.

Severe convection continues along a line from eastern Emmons
through Kidder and into Foster county and east. With the Linton
observation in Emmons county showing dew points in the upper 60s,
this may indicate the area for surface based convection extends
further west than the current watch, especially with effective SRH
in the 150-200 m2/s2 range extending into south- central North
Dakota.

UPDATE Issued at 528 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Issued a Flash Flood Watch for Dickey, LaMoure, and McIntosh
counties until 09Z Monday morning.

With the potential for convection to re-develop almost
continuously over the southern James River Valley counties
tonight, excessive rainfall may become a concern. An 850mb jet is
expected to develop this evening over eastern South Dakota and
nose into southeast North Dakota. Guidance indicates this jet
persisting until around 9Z when it begins to shift off to the
east. This will provide continuous convective initiation along the
mostly stationary surface trough and convergence zone. With
convective mean wind parallel to this initiating boundary and PWat
values in the 1.5" to 1.75" range, flash flooding may become an
issue as efficient rain producing convection moves over the same
areas through the night.

UPDATE Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Update for Tornado Watch issued in Foster, Stutsman, Logan,
McIntosh, LaMoure, and Dickey counties until 03Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Severe thunderstorms with the potential for all hazards in the
southern James River Valley and the potential for large hail and
damaging wind gusts further west highlight the short-term forecast
period.

This afternoon, a deep trough was over the Pacific Northwest
states with active southwest flow and embedded shortwaves over the
central Rockies through the Northern Plains. The earlier occluded
shortwave was continuing northward through central Saskatchewan.
Upstream, mid-level vort maxes were evident ejecting through the
broad parent trough with lee cyclogenesis and pressure falls
detected in western South Dakota and northeast Wyoming. Further
east, a somewhat diffuse pressure trough axis was extended from
western Nebraska into east-central North Dakota. A pseudo- cold
front was placed further west, extending from southeast
Saskatchewan through southwest North Dakota.

As mid-level ascent continues through this afternoon (evident by
thin cirrus streaming over the Northern Plains on visible
satellite imagery), increased convergence along both the pre-
frontal trough and the frontal boundary further west should be the
impetus for convective initiation late this afternoon.

In southeast North Dakota, convection should develop along the
prefrontal trough in an environment of surface dew points in the
65-70 F range under steep mid-level lapse rates of at least 7
C/km. With strong mid-level flow, EBWD of 40-50 kts will
contribute to create an environment conducive to supercells
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado
potential is somewhat more uncertain given the mostly
unidirectional flow in the lower levels and the likely mixing of
what was a shallow low level moisture profile on the 12Z ABR raob.
The tornadic (and overall severe) potential will depend on the
persistence of initially discrete cells with the likely rapid
initiation along the boundary. For the forecast area, the overlap
of greater effective SRH and LCL's for tornado potential will be
centered on LaMoure/Dickey counties with less certainty
immediately west and north. The additional threat will be heavy
rainfall with precipitable water in our southeast around or
greater than 1.50". The non-zero potential for training, and thus
a flash flood threat, exists if the intimating boundary lingers
over the JMV through the evening. Though confidence in this isn't
exactly high, this will need to be watched closely as the event
goes on.

Further west, more isolated convection should develop along the
currently stalled frontal boundary later this afternoon and move
through southwest North Dakota. Though weaker mid-level lapse
rates and more dry boundary layer moisture profiles will be
present, strong deep layer shear will provide a severe environment
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Convection continues into early Monday morning, though severe
potential will decrease around or after midnight as the atmosphere
stabilizes and convection mostly shifts off to the north/east.
Scattered showers may persist through Monday in the west as
cyclonic flow circulates overhead. Weak lapse rates should keep
the lightning potential lower. With a cold front trekking across
the state, temperatures will be cooler, especially in the west.
Highs in the mid 60s west to mid 80s in the southern James River
Valley are expected. The frontal boundary which will be present in
the far eastern Dakotas should kick off convection again Monday
afternoon, but well east of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Closed upper level low lingers over south central Canada Tuesday and
Wednesday, along with a mid level trough slow to push east across
the Great Plains. These features will maintain a chance for showers
or thunderstorms for the middle of the week, along with cooler
temperatures.

Upper level ridge and surface high pressure then build into the
region later in the week, bringing dry weather and a warming trend.
This continues into the following weekend as the ridge continues
east into the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

A cold front across central North Dakota will move very slowly east
tonight. The front will be the focus for widespread thunderstorms
east of a KMOT-KBIS line. Widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected west of KBIS-KMOT.

Otherwise mainly vfr conditions are expected, except MVFR at KXWA
after 12z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Monday for NDZ048-050-051.

&&

UPDATE...AE
SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
941 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

NDZ001-002-009-090245-
Divide-Burke-Williams-
941 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ003>005-010>013-017>021-031>034-040>045-090245-
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-
Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-
Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
941 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020 /841 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of west and central North Dakota tonight. The main
hazards will be large hail up to two inches in diameter and
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will be needed.

NDZ022-023-025-035>037-046-047-090245-
Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-
941 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central North Dakota tonight. The main hazards will be large hail
up to two inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 70
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will be needed.

NDZ048-050-051-090245-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
941 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A flash flood watch has been issued for Lamoure, Dickey and
McIntosh counties through tonight. See www.weather.gov/bis for
details.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern
James River Valley tonight. The main hazards will be destructive
hail up to baseball size, and severe wind gusts up to 70 mph.
Very heavy rainfall is also likely with the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will be needed.

waa

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1043 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     14 E ASHLEY             46.02N 99.08W
06/07/2020                   MCINTOSH           ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CORRECTS THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS TSTM WND
            DMG REPORT FROM 14 E ASHLEY. 6 BUILDINGS
            DESTROYED ON A FARMSTEAD. DEBRIS SPREAD A
            QUARTER MILE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FARM.
            TIME NOW ESTIMATED 720 PM CDT.

&&

WAA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1046 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

NDZ035-080430-
Burleigh ND-
1046 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BURLEIGH COUNTY
UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1046 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles north of Wilton to Regan to 10 miles north of
Menoken. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wing, Regan, New Johns Lake and Arena.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
south central North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4692 10063 4709 10069 4716 10075 4733 10075
      4732 10011 4705 10012
TIME...MOT...LOC 0346Z 247DEG 35KT 4724 10077 4714 10056 4698 10051

HOLLAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1047 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

NDZ048-051-080430-
La Moure ND-Dickey ND-
1047 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAMOURE AND EASTERN DICKEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1047 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles northeast of Jud to 6 miles southwest of
Fullerton. Movement was east at 60 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Oakes, Edgeley, Lamoure, Marion, Adrian, Verona, Fullerton, Dickey,
Ludden, Grand Rapids, Monango, Berlin, Guelph, Nortonville and
Glover.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4604 9863 4662 9885 4663 9804 4597 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 274DEG 52KT 4656 9879 4609 9848

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1107 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             9 S LAKE ISABEL         46.70N 99.75W
06/07/2020  E1.75 INCH       KIDDER             ND   PUBLIC

            RELAYED THROUGH BROADCAST MEDIA PHOTO
            SHARING WEBSITE. HANDFUL OF GOLF BALL SIZED
            HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1113 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

NDZ036-080500-
Kidder ND-
1113 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN KIDDER COUNTY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1113 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles northeast
of Wing, or 23 miles southeast of Mcclusky, moving northeast at 40
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Kidder
County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
south central and southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4712 10012 4732 10011 4733 10010 4733 9948
      4728 9949
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 245DEG 36KT 4722 10015

HOLLAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1207 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

NDZ037-047-048-050-051-080545-
La Moure ND-Dickey ND-Logan ND-McIntosh ND-Stutsman ND-
1207 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAMOURE...DICKEY...EASTERN
LOGAN...EASTERN MCINTOSH AND SOUTHEASTERN STUTSMAN COUNTIES UNTIL
1245 AM CDT...

At 1207 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles south of Kulm to 8 miles east of Fullerton.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Oakes, Ellendale, Edgeley, Lamoure, Kulm, Marion, Adrian, Montpelier,
Verona, Jud, Fullerton, Forbes, Dickey, Ludden, Grand Rapids, Sydney,
Fredonia, Monango, Berlin and Merricourt.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4594 9927 4675 9902 4672 9844 4663 9844
      4663 9804 4629 9804 4627 9801 4593 9801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0507Z 208DEG 40KT 4624 9893 4619 9825

MJONES