Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
706 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

In collaboration with SPC we extended the Tornado Watch further
west into Emmons/Kidder/Foster counties.

Severe convection continues along a line from eastern Emmons
through Kidder and into Foster county and east. With the Linton
observation in Emmons county showing dew points in the upper 60s,
this may indicate the area for surface based convection extends
further west than the current watch, especially with effective SRH
in the 150-200 m2/s2 range extending into south- central North
Dakota.

UPDATE Issued at 528 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Issued a Flash Flood Watch for Dickey, LaMoure, and McIntosh
counties until 09Z Monday morning.

With the potential for convection to re-develop almost
continuously over the southern James River Valley counties
tonight, excessive rainfall may become a concern. An 850mb jet is
expected to develop this evening over eastern South Dakota and
nose into southeast North Dakota. Guidance indicates this jet
persisting until around 9Z when it begins to shift off to the
east. This will provide continuous convective initiation along the
mostly stationary surface trough and convergence zone. With
convective mean wind parallel to this initiating boundary and PWat
values in the 1.5" to 1.75" range, flash flooding may become an
issue as efficient rain producing convection moves over the same
areas through the night.

UPDATE Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Update for Tornado Watch issued in Foster, Stutsman, Logan,
McIntosh, LaMoure, and Dickey counties until 03Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Severe thunderstorms with the potential for all hazards in the
southern James River Valley and the potential for large hail and
damaging wind gusts further west highlight the short-term forecast
period.

This afternoon, a deep trough was over the Pacific Northwest
states with active southwest flow and embedded shortwaves over the
central Rockies through the Northern Plains. The earlier occluded
shortwave was continuing northward through central Saskatchewan.
Upstream, mid-level vort maxes were evident ejecting through the
broad parent trough with lee cyclogenesis and pressure falls
detected in western South Dakota and northeast Wyoming. Further
east, a somewhat diffuse pressure trough axis was extended from
western Nebraska into east-central North Dakota. A pseudo- cold
front was placed further west, extending from southeast
Saskatchewan through southwest North Dakota.

As mid-level ascent continues through this afternoon (evident by
thin cirrus streaming over the Northern Plains on visible
satellite imagery), increased convergence along both the pre-
frontal trough and the frontal boundary further west should be the
impetus for convective initiation late this afternoon.

In southeast North Dakota, convection should develop along the
prefrontal trough in an environment of surface dew points in the
65-70 F range under steep mid-level lapse rates of at least 7
C/km. With strong mid-level flow, EBWD of 40-50 kts will
contribute to create an environment conducive to supercells
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado
potential is somewhat more uncertain given the mostly
unidirectional flow in the lower levels and the likely mixing of
what was a shallow low level moisture profile on the 12Z ABR raob.
The tornadic (and overall severe) potential will depend on the
persistence of initially discrete cells with the likely rapid
initiation along the boundary. For the forecast area, the overlap
of greater effective SRH and LCL's for tornado potential will be
centered on LaMoure/Dickey counties with less certainty
immediately west and north. The additional threat will be heavy
rainfall with precipitable water in our southeast around or
greater than 1.50". The non-zero potential for training, and thus
a flash flood threat, exists if the intimating boundary lingers
over the JMV through the evening. Though confidence in this isn't
exactly high, this will need to be watched closely as the event
goes on.

Further west, more isolated convection should develop along the
currently stalled frontal boundary later this afternoon and move
through southwest North Dakota. Though weaker mid-level lapse
rates and more dry boundary layer moisture profiles will be
present, strong deep layer shear will provide a severe environment
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Convection continues into early Monday morning, though severe
potential will decrease around or after midnight as the atmosphere
stabilizes and convection mostly shifts off to the north/east.
Scattered showers may persist through Monday in the west as
cyclonic flow circulates overhead. Weak lapse rates should keep
the lightning potential lower. With a cold front trekking across
the state, temperatures will be cooler, especially in the west.
Highs in the mid 60s west to mid 80s in the southern James River
Valley are expected. The frontal boundary which will be present in
the far eastern Dakotas should kick off convection again Monday
afternoon, but well east of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Closed upper level low lingers over south central Canada Tuesday and
Wednesday, along with a mid level trough slow to push east across
the Great Plains. These features will maintain a chance for showers
or thunderstorms for the middle of the week, along with cooler
temperatures.

Upper level ridge and surface high pressure then build into the
region later in the week, bringing dry weather and a warming trend.
This continues into the following weekend as the ridge continues
east into the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

A cold front across central North Dakota will move very slowly east
tonight. The front will be the focus for widespread thunderstorms
east of a KMOT-KBIS line. Widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected west of KBIS-KMOT.

Otherwise mainly vfr conditions are expected, except MVFR at KXWA
after 12z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Monday for NDZ048-050-051.

&&

UPDATE...AE
SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
653 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

NDZ001-002-009-090000-
Divide-Burke-Williams-
653 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ003>005-010>013-017>022-031>035-040>045-090000-
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-
Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-
Morton-Burleigh-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
653 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020 /553 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of west and central North Dakota this evening. The main
hazards will be large hail up to two inches in diameter and
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will be needed.

NDZ023-025-036-037-046-047-090000-
Wells-Foster-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-
653 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of west and central North Dakota this evening. The main
hazards will be large hail up to two inches in diameter and
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will be needed.

NDZ048-050-051-090000-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
653 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A flash flood watch has been issued for Lamoure, Dickey and
McIntosh counties through tonight. See www.weather.gov/bis for
details.

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern
James River Valley this evening. The main hazards will be a few
tornadoes, destructive hail up to baseball size, and destructive
wind gusts up to 80 mph. Very heavy rainfall is also likely with
the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
745 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TORNADO          3 SSW KULM              46.26N 98.98W
06/07/2020                   DICKEY             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER SENT A PHOTO OF THE TORNADO NEAR
            KULM. LOCATION APPROXIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
807 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE JAMESTOWN          46.93N 98.67W
06/07/2020  M70 MPH          STUTSMAN           ND   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KJMS JAMESTOWN ND AIRPORT ASOS
            (BIS).

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
809 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             1 W BARLOW              47.57N 99.15W
06/07/2020  E1.25 INCH       FOSTER             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STILL HAILING.

&&

RK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
818 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     HAIL             5 SSE REGENT            46.35N 102.52W
06/07/2020  E1.00 INCH       HETTINGER          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
820 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     HAIL             MOTT                    46.37N 102.32W
06/07/2020  E1.00 INCH       HETTINGER          ND   PUBLIC

            RELAYED THROUGH BROADCAST MEDIA. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
826 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SW EDGELEY            46.32N 98.77W
06/07/2020  M77 MPH          LAMOURE            ND   MESONET

            NDAWN STATION 4SW EDGELEY.

&&

MJ