Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
210 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Severe thunderstorm potential through this evening along with heavy
rainfall is the focus for the short term.

A negatively-tilted mid and upper-level trough will eject from
the Rockies into the northern Plains by this evening, setting the
stage for an active thunderstorm event as a frontal zone also
sharpens and shifts eastward. The frontal zone draped across west
central ND continues to yield regenerative clusters of
thunderstorms. This activity will pose a marginal severe-storm
risk through the early afternoon.

This convection will likely limit diurnal heating across western
and portions of central ND which could limit the higher end of the
severe threat this afternoon/evening, however, more robust ascent
is expected as the negatively-tilted trough swings through and
this should be enough to spark more organized convection late this
afternoon or evening. 12 UTC guidance suite and latest CAMs
favor strong to extreme instability along and east of the front
with MLCAPE of 3000 to 5000 J/kg, along with steep midlevel lapse
rates and effective shear magnitudes of 25 to 35 kt, but more
impressively strong mid/low-level helicity and 0-1km shear.
Deep-layer wind fields will largely be oriented parallel to the
north-south frontal zone, favoring a linear and messy mode to
convection with primarily multicells and transient supercells with
a risk of damaging winds and large hail. With 0-1-km SRH around 150 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear around
30 knots there is a tornado risk, although perhaps not as high as
one would expect given the above parameters unless surface-based
storms can form. The CAMs have been consistent in firing storms
along highway 83 late this afternoon then moving east into the
James River Valley this evening.

Finally, given the rich low level moisture, large CAPE profiles,
and relatively modest deep-layer wind fields, the setting favors
very heavy rainfall. Despite dry soils, rainfall rates could be
enough for localized flash flooding, so the Flash Flood Watch
continues for portions of central North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

A classic summertime pattern will be in place during the long term
with warm, humid conditions and chances for thunderstorms nearly
every day. The large-scale pattern will feature broad west-
southwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains with mid/upper-
level waves moving through the flow. Rich low-level moisture will
remain in place. Moreover, the magnitude of flow aloft and steep
low and mid-level lapse rates suggests a climatological severe
storm risk will exist. While confidence in the day to day details
through the period is moderate at best, it appears that overall,
Wednesday has the highest odds of being a dry period, with
increasing chances of thunderstorms on at least a scattered basis
Thursday, Friday, and Independence Day. Thermal fields and NBM
guidance support highs mainly 85 to 95 F through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Hazards to aviation today include widespread thunderstorms, some
severe with strong winds and hail.

Areas of MVFR will continue across central North Dakota as
thunderstorms continue to overspread central and portions of
western ND. Conditions will improve around 00z west, from KDIK-
KXWA, and ending east around 07z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ002>004-010>012-018>022-033>035-041-042-044>046.

&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
133 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ002>004-010>012-018>022-033>035-041-042-044>046-011845-
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Dunn-Mercer-
Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Hettinger-Grant-
Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
133 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 /1233 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening,
with the greatest risk across central North Dakota. The main
risks will be large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging
winds up to 70 mph. An isolated tornado is also possible.

A Flash Flood Watch is also in effect through this evening for
parts of portions of central North Dakota. See weather.gov/bis
for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening. Some storms could be
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will be needed today and this evening.

NDZ001-005-009-013-017-023-025-031-032-036-037-040-043-047-048-
050-051-011845-
Divide-Rolette-Williams-Pierce-McKenzie-Wells-Foster-
Golden Valley-Billings-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-Bowman-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
133 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 /1233 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening,
with the greatest risk across central North Dakota. The main
risks will be large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging
winds up to 70 mph. An isolated tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening. Some storms could be
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will be needed today and this evening.

AJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
137 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ023-301915-
Wells ND-
137 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WELLS COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM CDT...

At 137 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Fessenden, or
20 miles east of Harvey, moving north at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fessenden, Heimdal, Bremen, Hamberg and Emrick.

LAT...LON 4756 9943 4759 9969 4785 9964 4785 9930
      4784 9929
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 195DEG 34KT 4766 9954

HOLLAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
138 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW HAZELTON           46.52N 100.35W
06/30/2020  M1.60 INCH       EMMONS             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAIN SINCE 7 AM.

&&

CK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
141 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ019>021-301930-
Oliver ND-Mercer ND-McLean ND-
141 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MCLEAN...NORTH CENTRAL
OLIVER AND NORTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 140 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered along a line
extending from near Fort Stevenson State Park to 6 miles northeast of
Hazen to 5 miles north of Center. Movement was north at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Beulah, Garrison, Hazen, Underwood, Center, Stanton, Max, Riverdale,
Pick City, Coleharbor, Roseglen, Beulah Bay Recreation Area, Fort
Stevenson State Park, Hazen Bay Recreation Area, Lake Sakakawea State
Park, Emmet, Fort Clark, Dakota Waters Recreation Area and White
Shield.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4724 10176 4785 10187 4785 10109 4744 10111
      4707 10128
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 164DEG 37KT 4760 10148 4737 10154 4720 10130

HOLLAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
211 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ022-023-302000-
Wells ND-Sheridan ND-
211 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WELLS AND EASTERN
SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 210 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Goodrich, or 19
miles south of Harvey, moving north at 35 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Harvey, Goodrich, Hurdsfield, Martin, Sheyenne Lake and Wellsburg.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4737 9990 4740 10017 4785 10031 4785 9969
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 185DEG 31KT 4750 10003

HOLLAN

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