Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Bismarck, ND

334 
WGUS73 KBIS 010125
FFSBIS

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
825 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDC103-010415-
/O.CON.KBIS.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200701T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wells ND-
825 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN WELLS COUNTY...

At 825 PM CDT, flooded fields, full ditches and creeks and water 
running over some roads continues in the warned area. Between 3 and 
6 inches of rain had fallen as of 7 PM this evening. Another round 
of thunderstorms produced an inch of rain between 7 and 815 PM. Up 
to an inch of additional rain is possible before the thunderstorms 
end later this evening.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Trained spotters.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
         drainage and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Harvey, Heimdal, Manfred and Wellsburg.

Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4785 9960 4779 9960 4770 9966 4761 9970
      4748 9989 4748 10002 4772 10003 4779 10000
      4785 9993

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

Hamilton

249 
WGUS73 KBIS 010346
FFSBIS

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1046 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDC103-010356-
/O.CAN.KBIS.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200701T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wells ND-
1046 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WELLS COUNTY HAS BEEN 
REPLACED WITH AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. Please continue to heed any road closures. Crews have 
yet to check all county and township roads. If you encounter a 
flooded roadway, turn around don't drown.

LAT...LON 4785 9960 4779 9960 4770 9966 4761 9970
      4748 9989 4748 10002 4772 10003 4779 10000
      4785 9993

$$

Hamilton

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
210 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Severe thunderstorm potential through this evening along with heavy
rainfall is the focus for the short term.

A negatively-tilted mid and upper-level trough will eject from
the Rockies into the northern Plains by this evening, setting the
stage for an active thunderstorm event as a frontal zone also
sharpens and shifts eastward. The frontal zone draped across west
central ND continues to yield regenerative clusters of
thunderstorms. This activity will pose a marginal severe-storm
risk through the early afternoon.

This convection will likely limit diurnal heating across western
and portions of central ND which could limit the higher end of the
severe threat this afternoon/evening, however, more robust ascent
is expected as the negatively-tilted trough swings through and
this should be enough to spark more organized convection late this
afternoon or evening. 12 UTC guidance suite and latest CAMs
favor strong to extreme instability along and east of the front
with MLCAPE of 3000 to 5000 J/kg, along with steep midlevel lapse
rates and effective shear magnitudes of 25 to 35 kt, but more
impressively strong mid/low-level helicity and 0-1km shear.
Deep-layer wind fields will largely be oriented parallel to the
north-south frontal zone, favoring a linear and messy mode to
convection with primarily multicells and transient supercells with
a risk of damaging winds and large hail. With 0-1-km SRH around 150 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear around
30 knots there is a tornado risk, although perhaps not as high as
one would expect given the above parameters unless surface-based
storms can form. The CAMs have been consistent in firing storms
along highway 83 late this afternoon then moving east into the
James River Valley this evening.

Finally, given the rich low level moisture, large CAPE profiles,
and relatively modest deep-layer wind fields, the setting favors
very heavy rainfall. Despite dry soils, rainfall rates could be
enough for localized flash flooding, so the Flash Flood Watch
continues for portions of central North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

A classic summertime pattern will be in place during the long term
with warm, humid conditions and chances for thunderstorms nearly
every day. The large-scale pattern will feature broad west-
southwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains with mid/upper-
level waves moving through the flow. Rich low-level moisture will
remain in place. Moreover, the magnitude of flow aloft and steep
low and mid-level lapse rates suggests a climatological severe
storm risk will exist. While confidence in the day to day details
through the period is moderate at best, it appears that overall,
Wednesday has the highest odds of being a dry period, with
increasing chances of thunderstorms on at least a scattered basis
Thursday, Friday, and Independence Day. Thermal fields and NBM
guidance support highs mainly 85 to 95 F through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Hazards to aviation today include widespread thunderstorms, some
severe with strong winds and hail.

Areas of MVFR will continue across central North Dakota as
thunderstorms continue to overspread central and portions of
western ND. Conditions will improve around 00z west, from KDIK-
KXWA, and ending east around 07z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ002>004-010>012-018>022-033>035-041-042-044>046.

&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
518 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ002>004-010>012-018>022-033>035-041-042-044>046-012230-
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Dunn-Mercer-
Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Hettinger-Grant-
Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
518 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 /418 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible through the evening. The main
risks will be large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging
winds up to 70 mph. An isolated tornado is also possible.

A Flash Flood Watch is also in effect through this evening for
parts of central North Dakota. See weather.gov/bis for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening. Some storms could be
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will be needed into this evening.

NDZ005-013-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-012230-
Rolette-Pierce-Wells-Foster-Kidder-Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
518 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening. The main
risks will be large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging
winds up to 70 mph. An isolated tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening. Some storms could be
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will be needed into this evening.

NDZ001-009-017-031-032-040-043-012230-
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Golden Valley-Billings-Slope-Bowman-
518 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020 /418 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible into the evening. An isolated strong
storm is possible with small hail and gusty winds the main
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening. Some storms could be
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
459 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HARVEY                  47.77N 99.93W
06/30/2020  M4.85 INCH       WELLS              ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TOTAL SO FAR FOR TODAY. 4.05 INCHES FELL
            BETWEEN 2:30 PM AND 4:55 PM.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
506 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             2 ENE SELZ              47.87N 99.85W
06/30/2020  E0.88 INCH       PIERCE             ND   PUBLIC

            HAIL FOR ABOUT A HALF HOUR. COMBINED WITH
            HEAVY RAIN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
528 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW HEIMDAL           47.78N 99.72W
06/30/2020  M2.52 INCH       WELLS              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NDARB OBSERVER REPORT. TOTAL FOR THE DAY SO
            FAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
543 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

NDZ022-035-036-302330-
Kidder ND-Sheridan ND-Burleigh ND-
543 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWESTERN KIDDER AND BURLEIGH COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 543 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Wilton to near Sterling. Movement was east at 25
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Steele, Wilton, Menoken, Wing, Sterling, Regan, Mcdowell Dam
Recreation Area, Driscoll, Mckenzie, Baldwin, Moffit and Arena.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4715 10089 4716 10087 4716 10075 4722 10075
      4744 10034 4689 9973 4663 10034 4664 10050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 248DEG 20KT 4715 10070 4679 10036

MJONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
611 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW HEIMDAL           47.78N 99.70W
06/30/2020  M2.80 INCH       WELLS              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN TOTAL SO FAR TODAY. WATER IS FLOWING
            OVER VARIOUS RURAL ROADS IN THE AREA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
613 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE HARVEY             47.76N 99.92W
06/30/2020  M5.00 INCH       WELLS              ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KHND RADIO TOWER SITE.

&&