Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
353 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off this evening along a
weak cold front. High pressure builds into the region Thursday
with continued hot and humid conditions. An area of low
pressure will track up the east coast and another cold front
arrives from the west Friday. Additional thunderstorm chances
by this weekend from those features.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
353 pm update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the
afternoon/evening scattered showers and thunderstorms into this
evening potentially again Thursday afternoon...along with the
persistent hot and humid conditions.

The Heat Advisory for the Finger Lakes and central southern tier
of NY continues...with an addition of Cortland, Chenango, and
Broome Counties for Thursday. Heat indices up to 95 in some
locations today, although not as widespread as previously
thought due to the amt of cloud cover this morning and the rapid
convective development this afternoon. Tomorrow should be a bit
different as the upper ridge axis builds directly overhead,
which should suppress cloud cover until later in the day and
allow for a longer period of solar heating. Heat index values
Thursday afternoon will climb into the 95 to 100 range.

As for the rest of today, a weak boundary will continue to drop
south/se across the region this evening and interact with a
slightly unstable air mass. A lack of upper level forcing and
weak wind flow throughout the column will allow for very
disorganized convection and numerous pulse-type cells. A line of
initially intense convection developed earlier along the nrn
Finger Lakes, but has since moved into an air mass that was
worked over this morning, and exhibited signs of significant
deterioration. Embedded cells still may be able to pulse up and
produce locally strong wind gusts, but the threat for severe
weather is very low. Heavy rain and localized flooding is the
main threat through this evening, especially if an area already
hit earlier today sees more rain.

The air mass behind the front tonight will be more stable with
the upper level ridge beginning to push in from the west and
applying large scale suppression to much of the region. Mild
overnight temperatures tonight will only drop into the mid 60s
to near 70.

The upper ridge will dominate much of the region into Thursday
and allow for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies into the
afternoon before the afternoon cumulus field develops, along
with a few isolated popup showers and storms. The environment
will be similar to today, but the presence of the ridge will
likely keep any updrafts in the convection to a minimum.
Conditions stabilize again Thur night with overnight lows
dropping back into the 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
353 pm update...
A coastal low will ride north along the east coast Friday and
usher in additional cloud cover along with additional chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Dew points will be in the 60s
again on Friday with temperatures back into the 90s, especially
the lake plain and into the central srn tier of NY. There may be
a need for another Heat Advisory Friday as heat indices will
climb back into the mid 90s.

The coastal low moves off the coast of New England Friday night
and early Saturday, which may allow the rain to persist into
Saturday morning. Much of the area will start to see a little
bit of a reprieve from the heat Saturday with temperatures only
into the 80s. Dew points will still climb into the 60s to near
70 though. A trailing low pressure system over the Great Lakes
will kick the coastal low to the e/ne, but also bring in
additional chances for showers and storms Saturday
afternoon/evening. Could possibly be widespread soaking rain for
much of the region...which would be a relief for some and more
than enough for others.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The weekend continues to look unsettled due to an upper level
trough meandering over the northeast. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again Sunday, especially during the afternoon when
the atmosphere is expected to destabilize. Increasing clouds
could hold temperatures in the middle 80s Sunday.

The main low will rotate into Nova Scotia by the start of the
new work week. Scattered thunderstorms will continue Monday
before the trough axis finally moves eastward Monday night.

Drier conditions and seasonable temperatures are forecast for
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Currently VFR conditions across the board. Area of showers and
storms that moved across the srn tier of NY and ne PA this
morning is finally tracking further east out of the region.
However, another round of convection is developing over wrn
NY/Finger Lakes and will increase in intensity and coverage
through the afternoon. Area terminals will be affected in
central NY between 19-22Z and about 21-24Z for KAVP. Gusty winds
and heavy rain will be the main threat. Winds under 10 knots
throughout the TAF period outside any thunderstorms. Storms will
weaken and move out of the area after 00Z. Patchy fog will
likely develop in areas that saw rain today...highest
probability will be KITH, KELM, KBGM and KAVP. Vsbys may drop to
IFR or worse at times between 10-13Z Thur morning. Conditions
recover to VFR after 14-15Z and remain VFR through the day.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Saturday...mainly VFR with a chance
of brief restrictions due to afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Chance of IFR valley fog at KELM each morning.

Sunday and Monday...VFR conditions expected with cooler and
drier air moving in. Still may see some afternoon showers and
storms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-055.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ044-045-
     056.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT/DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...BJT/MWG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

NYZ015>018-022-091930-
Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ009-023>025-036-037-055-091930-
Northern Oneida-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-
Tioga-
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening. A few
storms have the potential to produce locally damaging winds, small
hail and heavy rainfall.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC
guidelines.

NYZ044-045-056-091930-
Cortland-Chenango-Broome-
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening. A few
storms have the potential to produce locally damaging winds, small
hail and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC
guidelines.

NYZ046-057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-091930-
Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-
Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
316 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening. A few
storms have the potential to produce locally damaging winds, small
hail and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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