Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
353 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off this evening along a
weak cold front. High pressure builds into the region Thursday
with continued hot and humid conditions. An area of low
pressure will track up the east coast and another cold front
arrives from the west Friday. Additional thunderstorm chances
by this weekend from those features.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
353 pm update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the
afternoon/evening scattered showers and thunderstorms into this
evening potentially again Thursday afternoon...along with the
persistent hot and humid conditions.

The Heat Advisory for the Finger Lakes and central southern tier
of NY continues...with an addition of Cortland, Chenango, and
Broome Counties for Thursday. Heat indices up to 95 in some
locations today, although not as widespread as previously
thought due to the amt of cloud cover this morning and the rapid
convective development this afternoon. Tomorrow should be a bit
different as the upper ridge axis builds directly overhead,
which should suppress cloud cover until later in the day and
allow for a longer period of solar heating. Heat index values
Thursday afternoon will climb into the 95 to 100 range.

As for the rest of today, a weak boundary will continue to drop
south/se across the region this evening and interact with a
slightly unstable air mass. A lack of upper level forcing and
weak wind flow throughout the column will allow for very
disorganized convection and numerous pulse-type cells. A line of
initially intense convection developed earlier along the nrn
Finger Lakes, but has since moved into an air mass that was
worked over this morning, and exhibited signs of significant
deterioration. Embedded cells still may be able to pulse up and
produce locally strong wind gusts, but the threat for severe
weather is very low. Heavy rain and localized flooding is the
main threat through this evening, especially if an area already
hit earlier today sees more rain.

The air mass behind the front tonight will be more stable with
the upper level ridge beginning to push in from the west and
applying large scale suppression to much of the region. Mild
overnight temperatures tonight will only drop into the mid 60s
to near 70.

The upper ridge will dominate much of the region into Thursday
and allow for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies into the
afternoon before the afternoon cumulus field develops, along
with a few isolated popup showers and storms. The environment
will be similar to today, but the presence of the ridge will
likely keep any updrafts in the convection to a minimum.
Conditions stabilize again Thur night with overnight lows
dropping back into the 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
353 pm update...
A coastal low will ride north along the east coast Friday and
usher in additional cloud cover along with additional chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Dew points will be in the 60s
again on Friday with temperatures back into the 90s, especially
the lake plain and into the central srn tier of NY. There may be
a need for another Heat Advisory Friday as heat indices will
climb back into the mid 90s.

The coastal low moves off the coast of New England Friday night
and early Saturday, which may allow the rain to persist into
Saturday morning. Much of the area will start to see a little
bit of a reprieve from the heat Saturday with temperatures only
into the 80s. Dew points will still climb into the 60s to near
70 though. A trailing low pressure system over the Great Lakes
will kick the coastal low to the e/ne, but also bring in
additional chances for showers and storms Saturday
afternoon/evening. Could possibly be widespread soaking rain for
much of the region...which would be a relief for some and more
than enough for others.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The weekend continues to look unsettled due to an upper level
trough meandering over the northeast. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected again Sunday, especially during the afternoon when
the atmosphere is expected to destabilize. Increasing clouds
could hold temperatures in the middle 80s Sunday.

The main low will rotate into Nova Scotia by the start of the
new work week. Scattered thunderstorms will continue Monday
before the trough axis finally moves eastward Monday night.

Drier conditions and seasonable temperatures are forecast for
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Currently VFR conditions across the board. Area of showers and
storms that moved across the srn tier of NY and ne PA this
morning is finally tracking further east out of the region.
However, another round of convection is developing over wrn
NY/Finger Lakes and will increase in intensity and coverage
through the afternoon. Area terminals will be affected in
central NY between 19-22Z and about 21-24Z for KAVP. Gusty winds
and heavy rain will be the main threat. Winds under 10 knots
throughout the TAF period outside any thunderstorms. Storms will
weaken and move out of the area after 00Z. Patchy fog will
likely develop in areas that saw rain today...highest
probability will be KITH, KELM, KBGM and KAVP. Vsbys may drop to
IFR or worse at times between 10-13Z Thur morning. Conditions
recover to VFR after 14-15Z and remain VFR through the day.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Saturday...mainly VFR with a chance
of brief restrictions due to afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. Chance of IFR valley fog at KELM each morning.

Sunday and Monday...VFR conditions expected with cooler and
drier air moving in. Still may see some afternoon showers and
storms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-055.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ044-045-
     056.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT/DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...BJT/MWG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
353 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

NYZ046-057-082030-
Otsego NY-Delaware NY-
353 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...SOUTHERN OTSEGO AND
NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 353 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Summit to near Maryland to West End.
Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

Small hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Oneonta, Davenport, Worcester, Maryland, Kortright, Meredith,
Stamford, Otego, Hobart and Gilbertsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4232 7464 4230 7520 4246 7536 4255 7491
      4267 7464 4263 7463 4255 7468 4252 7471
      4242 7461 4239 7452
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 318DEG 14KT 4261 7464 4251 7485 4246 7512

HLC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
408 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

NYZ022-024-PAZ038-082045-
Steuben NY-Chemung NY-Bradford PA-
408 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...CHEMUNG...
SOUTHEASTERN STEUBEN AND NORTHWESTERN BRADFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Millport to near Elkland. Movement was
southeast at 15 mph.

Strong wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with these storms. This
may be enough to cause minor damage to trees and power lines. A tree
was already reported down in Horseheads.

Locations impacted include...
Chemung, Elmira, Corning, Southport, Big Flats, Horseheads, Elmira
Heights, Caton, Ridgebury and Lindley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4230 7681 4228 7673 4225 7673 4223 7664
      4224 7663 4221 7653 4216 7653 4215 7656
      4204 7655 4180 7689 4200 7693 4200 7737
      4203 7739
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 316DEG 12KT 4228 7679 4193 7727

MDP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
429 PM EDT WED JUL 08 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE FRANKLIN           42.39N  75.10W
07/08/2020                   DELAWARE           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            AS PER DISPATCH FEED, MULTIPLE TREES DOWN INCLUDING
            BLOCKAGE OF HIGHWAY 28. POWER ALSO OUT IN THE VILLAGE.

&&

MDP