Small Craft Advisory 66, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
334 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

High impact weather potential: Early morning convection, cloud
trends, thunderstorm re-development potential

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Similar to yesterday,
convective evolution will be the main challenge today.  And
depending on how this morning's activity evolves will play a large
role in what happens with convective re-development this
afternoon.

Cellular convective development continues over northern Wisconsin
and the central U.P. this morning in advance of a cold front.
This activity will continue to push east into northern Michigan
this morning, being fed by a 45kt 850mb jet and plenty of
instability (3000 j/kg of MLCape). It still appears that wind will
be the primary severe weather threat given the increasing mid
level flow. An isolated tornado is also possible with the energy
helicity index (EHI) upwards of 2 as more favorable shear
parameters push into the area in advance of the approaching upper
trough. Focus will shift to the eastern parts of the area (east of
I-75) by later this morning/early afternoon as the atmosphere
destabilizes with daytime heating before fropa. A relatively
small window for storms to re-develop, as drier air will sweep
into the area by mid to late afternoon and push any remaining
thunder activity to the south and east.

With a front bisecting the area today, temperatures will range from
the lower 80s over western-northern areas to near 90 over
southeastern areas. There will be some immediate humidity relief
with fropa, with continued drying in the hours after fropa.
Sunday night will feature much more comfortable temperatures, with
lows in the 50s to around 60 but dewpoints falling through the
50s.

Winds will be gusty again today, with forecast soundings showing
nearly 30kts at the top of the mixed layer.  Although marginal, I
will put up beach hazard statements along northern Lake Michigan
with increasing onshore flow as winds veer more westerly throughout
the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...Return to more normal weather...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

Forecast/Details: Early next week the flow becomes more zonal and a
generally more quiet pattern. High pressure will exit the region
allowing a cold front to cross the region Wednesday. Ahead of the
cold front showers and possibly a few thunderstorms move in Tuesday
and exit with the front Wednesday. Cooler temperatures continue
through mid week with high temperatures very near July normals
around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

A storm system will cross the region Friday or Saturday with
another chance of precipitation. In the wake this storm, it looks
like ridging/warming may move back into the region late next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

Pretty quiet late this evening, but additional SHRA/TSRA activity
is taking shape in nw WI and western upper MI. This will develop
eastward, and additional cells will eventually get going ahead of
the main activity. All TAF sites have a few hours of TSRA tempoed
in overnight. Strong/svr storms with gusty winds are possible. MVFR
cigs will occur at times, and would not preclude worse conditions
during SHRA/TSRA. Conditions will gradually improve on Sunday,
with VFR conditions from mid- afternoon on.

S to sw breezes tonight and early Sunday. Winds will veer westerly
and become gusty in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Small craft headlines today on some of the nearshore waters
(particularly Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay). A round of showers
and thunderstorms early today on Lake Michigan, with storms
possible on Lake Huron into the afternoon hours. Quieter weather
to start the week with weaker winds and dry conditions.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for MIZ016-020-025-031-099.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for LSZ321.
&&

NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JK

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