Alert archive / New York / River Flood Warnings in 2020
River Flood Warning 21, NWS Albany, NY
NWS Albany, NY issued this river flood warning at Dec 24, 2020, 1:07 PM EST for Ulster County, New York. It took effect at Dec 25, 2020, 5:41 AM EST. It was in force for 12 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 24, 2020, 1:07 PM EST (18:07 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 25, 2020, 5:41 AM EST
- Expired
- Dec 25, 2020, 6:02 PM EST
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Albany, NY
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Ulster County, NY
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Esopus Creek at Mount Marion (MRNN6). The gauge peaked at 19.91 ft at Dec 25, 2020, 6:00 AM EST.
- Action stage
- 18 ft
- Minor stage
- 20 ft
- Moderate stage
- 22 ft
- Major stage
- 24 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 01364500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
433 WGUS41 KALY 241807 FLWALY BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flood Warning National Weather Service Albany NY 107 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 NYC111-250615- /O.NEW.KALY.FL.W.0019.201225T0337Z-201226T0222Z/ /MTRN6.1.RS.201225T0337Z.201225T1200Z.201225T2021Z.NO/ 107 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a * Flood Warning for the Esopus Creek At Cold Brook. * From this evening to Friday evening. * At 12:00 PM EST Thursday the stage was 3.9 feet. * Flood stage is 11.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late this evening to a crest of 14.9 feet Friday morning. It will then fall below flood stage Friday afternoon. * Impact...At 16.0 feet, Water reaches roads. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 15.4 feet on 01/27/1996. && Esopus Creek Cold Brook Flood Stage: 11.0 Observed Stage at Thu 12 pm: 3.9 Forecast: Thu 7 pm 6.9 Fri 1 am 13.7 Fri 7 am 14.9 Fri 1 pm 12.1 Fri 7 pm 9.3 Sat 1 am 7.9 Sat 7 am 7.2 Sat 1 pm 6.8 Sat 7 pm 6.4 Sun 1 am 6.2 Sun 7 am 6.0 && LAT...LON 4208 7437 4211 7428 4200 7420 4197 7429 $$ NYC111-250615- /O.NEW.KALY.FL.W.0020.201225T0945Z-201226T1400Z/ /ROSN6.1.RS.201225T0945Z.201225T1800Z.201226T0800Z.NO/ 107 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a * Flood Warning for the Rondout Creek At Rosendale. * From late tonight to Saturday morning. * At 12:30 PM EST Thursday the stage was 9.5 feet. * Flood stage is 18.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late tonight to a crest of 20.8 feet early Friday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Saturday morning. * Impact...At 21.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 20.3 feet on 09/08/2011. && Rondout Creek Rosendale Flood Stage: 18.0 Observed Stage at Thu 12 pm: 9.5 Forecast: Thu 7 pm 11.8 Fri 1 am 15.5 Fri 7 am 19.5 Fri 1 pm 20.8 Fri 7 pm 19.8 Sat 1 am 18.4 Sat 7 am 17.2 Sat 1 pm 16.1 Sat 7 pm 15.0 Sun 1 am 14.0 Sun 7 am 13.1 && LAT...LON 4197 7409 4185 7398 4161 7436 4173 7448 $$ NYC111-250615- /O.NEW.KALY.FL.W.0021.201225T1041Z-201226T0900Z/ /MRNN6.1.RS.201225T1041Z.201225T1800Z.201226T0300Z.NO/ 107 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a * Flood Warning for the Esopus Creek At Mount Marion. * From late tonight to late Friday night. * At 12:30 PM EST Thursday the stage was 13.2 feet. * Flood stage is 20.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late tonight to a crest of 21.1 feet early Friday afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late Friday evening. * Impact...At 22.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. Flooding affects about 25 homes on Orlando Street, Buckley Street and Sandy Lane. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.1 feet on 02/20/1981. && Esopus Creek Mount Marion Flood Stage: 20.0 Observed Stage at Thu 12 pm: 13.2 Forecast: Thu 7 pm 14.6 Fri 1 am 17.5 Fri 7 am 20.7 Fri 1 pm 21.1 Fri 7 pm 20.4 Sat 1 am 19.6 Sat 7 am 18.8 Sat 1 pm 18.1 Sat 7 pm 17.6 Sun 1 am 17.1 Sun 7 am 16.7 && LAT...LON 4216 7403 4210 7392 4185 7403 4194 7417 $$ IAA
3 follow-up statements
807 WGUS81 KALY 250243 FLSALY Flood Statement National Weather Service Albany NY 943 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 NYC111-251445- /O.EXT.KALY.FL.W.0021.201225T1045Z-201226T0815Z/ /MRNN6.1.RS.201225T1045Z.201225T1800Z.201226T0215Z.NO/ 943 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 ...The Flood Warning is now in effect until early Saturday morning... The Flood Warning continues for the Esopus Creek At Mount Marion. * From late tonight to late Friday night. * At 8:30 PM EST Thursday the stage was 13.3 feet. * Flood stage is 20.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late tonight to a crest of 21.0 feet early tomorrow afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late tomorrow evening. * Impact...At 20.0 feet, Flood stage. The Esopus Creek begins to spill over its banks. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.1 feet on 12/21/1973. && Esopus Creek Mount Marion Flood Stage: 20.0 Observed Stage at Thu 8 pm: 13.3 Forecast: Fri 1 am 17.3 Fri 7 am 20.7 Fri 1 pm 21.0 Fri 7 pm 20.3 Sat 1 am 19.5 Sat 7 am 18.7 Sat 1 pm 18.0 Sat 7 pm 17.5 Sun 1 am 17.1 Sun 7 am 16.7 Sun 1 pm 16.4 && LAT...LON 4216 7403 4210 7392 4185 7403 4194 7417 $$ NAS
327 WGUS81 KALY 251128 FLSALY Flood Statement National Weather Service Albany NY 628 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 NYC111-252330- /O.EXT.KALY.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-201226T1236Z/ /MRNN6.1.RS.201225T1443Z.201225T1800Z.201226T0636Z.NO/ 628 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 ...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow morning... The Flood Warning continues for the Esopus Creek At Mount Marion. * Until Saturday morning. * At 5:30 AM EST Friday the stage was 19.6 feet. * Flood stage is 20.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late this morning to a crest of 21.2 feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage just after midnight tonight. * Impact...At 22.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. Flooding affects about 25 homes on Orlando Street, Buckley Street and Sandy Lane. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 21.3 feet on 05/06/1989. && Esopus Creek Mount Marion Flood Stage: 20.0 Observed Stage at Fri 5 am: 19.6 Forecast: Fri 7 am 19.0 Fri 1 pm 21.2 Fri 7 pm 21.0 Sat 1 am 20.1 Sat 7 am 19.1 Sat 1 pm 18.3 Sat 7 pm 17.7 Sun 1 am 17.4 Sun 7 am 17.2 Sun 1 pm 16.8 Sun 7 pm 16.5 Mon 1 am 16.2 && LAT...LON 4216 7403 4210 7392 4185 7403 4194 7417 $$ NYC111-252330- /O.EXT.KALY.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-201226T1104Z/ /ROSN6.1.RS.201225T1143Z.201225T1800Z.201226T0504Z.NO/ 628 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 ...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow morning... The Flood Warning continues for the Rondout Creek At Rosendale. * Until Saturday morning. * At 5:30 AM EST Friday the stage was 16.3 feet. * Flood stage is 18.0 feet. * Minor flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this morning to a crest of 20.2 feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage just after midnight tonight. * Impact...At 21.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 20.2 feet on 12/17/2000. && Rondout Creek Rosendale Flood Stage: 18.0 Observed Stage at Fri 5 am: 16.3 Forecast: Fri 7 am 18.4 Fri 1 pm 20.2 Fri 7 pm 19.1 Sat 1 am 17.8 Sat 7 am 16.7 Sat 1 pm 15.7 Sat 7 pm 14.7 Sun 1 am 13.6 Sun 7 am 12.9 Sun 1 pm 12.4 Sun 7 pm 11.8 Mon 1 am 11.2 && LAT...LON 4197 7409 4185 7398 4161 7436 4173 7448 $$ NYC111-252330- /O.CON.KALY.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-201226T0238Z/ /MTRN6.3.RS.201225T0421Z.201225T1200Z.201225T2038Z.NO/ 628 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 ...The Flood Warning remains in effect... The Flood Warning continues for the Esopus Creek At Cold Brook. * Until this evening. * At 6:01 AM EST Friday the stage was 17.3 feet. * Flood stage is 11.0 feet. * Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast. * Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 6:01 AM EST Friday was 18.1 feet. * Forecast...The river will rise to 18.7 feet this morning. It will then fall below flood stage late this afternoon to 6.7 feet and begin rising again Sunday morning. It will rise to 6.8 feet early Sunday afternoon. It will then fall again and remain below flood stage. * Impact...At 18.0 feet, Water reaches trailer park in Phoenicia. Roads and bridges washed out. * Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 19.0 feet on 12/21/1957. && Esopus Creek Cold Brook Flood Stage: 11.0 Observed Stage at Fri 6 am: 17.3 Forecast: Fri 7 am 18.7 Fri 1 pm 12.5 Fri 7 pm 9.1 Sat 1 am 7.8 Sat 7 am 7.2 Sat 1 pm 6.9 Sat 7 pm 6.8 Sun 1 am 6.7 Sun 7 am 6.7 Sun 1 pm 6.8 Sun 7 pm 6.7 Mon 1 am 6.6 && LAT...LON 4208 7437 4211 7428 4200 7420 4197 7429 $$ bew
331 WGUS81 KALY 252302 FLSALY Flood Statement National Weather Service Albany NY 602 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 NYC111-260015- /O.CAN.KALY.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-201225T2302Z/ /MRNN6.1.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 602 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020 ...The Flood Warning for the Esopus Creek At Mount Marion has been cancelled... The Flood Warning is cancelled for the Esopus Creek At Mount Marion. * At 5:30 PM EST Friday the stage was 19.2 feet and falling. * Flood stage is 20 feet. * Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 15.4 feet Monday morning. && Esopus Creek Mount Marion Flood Stage: 20.0 Observed Stage at Fri 4 pm: 19.3 Forecast: Fri 7 pm 18.4 Sat 1 am 17.2 Sat 7 am 16.8 Sat 1 pm 16.6 Sat 7 pm 16.3 Sun 1 am 16.2 Sun 7 am 16.1 Sun 1 pm 15.9 Sun 7 pm 15.7 Mon 1 am 15.6 Mon 7 am 15.4 && LAT...LON 4216 7403 4210 7392 4185 7403 4194 7417 $$ SND
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 24, 12:50 PM EST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 24, 12:50 PM EST, 17 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1250 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will bring a surge of mild air along with
moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds through early
Christmas Day. Temperatures will fall through Christmas Day as
colder air returns along with scattered rain and snow showers
during the afternoon. Chilly conditions return for the weekend
with additional snow showers across the Adirondacks.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Flood Watch in effect for all of eastern NY and western New
England for this evening through Friday afternoon...
High Wind Warning for Taconics and most of western New England
now in effect from 6 PM this evening until 1 PM Friday...
Wind Advisory now in effect for eastern Catskills for 6 PM this
evening until 7 AM Friday...
Wind Advisory for Hudson River Valley north into southern
Washington County 6 PM this evening until 10 AM Friday
morning...
As of 1250 PM EST...High-Impact Multihazard event on track for
tonight into Friday morning, with biggest concern remaining the
heavy rain combined with significant snow melt resulting in
flooding.
Temperatures continue to rise across the region but remain
variable based on whether locations have been able to scour out
the low-level cold air yet. Temperatures at this time range
from around 40 in parts of the Adirondacks to the mid-50s across
the mid- Hudson Valley. Have adjusted temperatures based on the
latest observations and now have late-day temperatures reaching
the upper 40s to upper 50s.
Rain continues to spread eastward and is now increasing across
the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley as well as
the Schoharie Valley. Rainfall totals based on the NYS Mesonet
have already reached around 0.25 of an inch across northern
Herkimer County. Less rainfall than initially forecast so far
across the eastern Catskills (less than 0.10 of an inch at
Tannersville), though that should have limited affect regarding
the flood threat in that area as the bulk of the rain has yet to
arrive.
Gusty southeast winds will continue this afternoon, especially
across higher terrain of the eastern Catskills and western New
England. Wind gusts have already exceeded 40 mph across portions
of the Taconics and eastern Catskills today. Based on the latest
trends, we did increase wind gusts for this afternoon (and
tonight) across the Adirondacks, but still look to fall shy of
Wind Advisory criteria, but will continue to monitor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Heavier rain overspreads the region tonight as powerhouse low
level jet (70-80+ KT) within warm conveyor belt arrives. Best
chances for heaviest rain is after midnight, with the potential
for one half inch/hour or greater rainfall rates, especially
within any convective elements that train. Overall, rainfall
amounts have actually increased across the SE Catskills, where a
small area of 3-6 inches of rain is possible due to enhanced
upslope processes working in tandem with the WCB. Elsewhere,
generally 1-3 inches are expected, although some shadowing from
downsloping SE winds off the Taconics/Berkshires and southern
Greens may cause a relative min in QPF across portions of the
upper Hudson Valley and perhaps Mohawk Valley. However, should a
narrow cold frontal rainband/QLCS arrive and slow down, even
the Mohawk Valley could see 1-2 inches of rain, if not locally
higher. Refer to the hydrology section below for more details on
potential flooding impacts.
Strong winds will also be an issue tonight, with
climatologically favored areas of the southern Greens,
Berkshires and Taconics likely to experience some gusts of
50-60+ mph after midnight due to the southeast low level flow
regime. Across the eastern Catskills and portions of the Hudson
River Valley from the Capital Region south, and also southern
Washington County, strong southeast to south winds may gust up
to 50 mph, hence issuance of wind advisory. Enhanced channeling
flow may also occur within portions of the Hudson River Valley
late tonight. In addition, embedded low topped convective
elements may be able to tap into the stronger winds aloft and
punch through any low level inversion.
Temperatures tonight should rise into the 50s for most areas,
with some potential to reach/exceed 60 overnight within and east
of the Hudson River Valley. Combined with strong winds and
dewpoints possibly exceeding 50, significant snow melt is
likely.
Also, with the cold, deep snowpack in place, as the low levels
moisten with onset of steadier rain, areas of dense fog will
develop, and could become quite widespread.
The warm conveyor belt should begin shifting east of the region
during Friday morning, however the actual surface cold front
looks to track eastward during the afternoon hours. Another low
topped line of convection could develop along the front;
otherwise showers should continue, although with some decrease
in areal coverage, until shortly after frontal passage.
By late afternoon, there is a possibility of rain changing to
snow showers across the western Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills
and SW Adirondacks. A coating to less than an inch could occur
in some of these areas. Temps by late afternoon should range
from the lower/mid 30s across western areas, to the upper
30s/mid 40s from the Hudson River Valley east into New England.
Snow showers and perhaps a few isolated snow squalls can not be
ruled out Friday evening ahead of the leading edge of the upper
level cold pool. This may lead to scattered quick coatings of
snow, which combined with falling temps, could create locally
slippery travel conditions. Snow showers should decrease in
coverage later Friday night, and become confined to the southern
Adirondacks. Lows by daybreak Saturday mainly in the teens to
lower 20s.
For Saturday-Saturday night, some potential for Lake Effect snow
as low level winds begin veering more into the west/southwest to
west, allowing a snowband from Lake Ontario to potentially
migrate southward into northern Herkimer/Hamilton Counties by
late Saturday afternoon, then continue southward by late
Saturday night into the western Mohawk Valley. Some moderate
accumulations of snow could occur across northern
Herkimer/northwest Hamilton Counties by daybreak Sunday.
Otherwise, cold with highs Saturday mainly in the mid 20s to
low 30s except only teens for highest elevations; lows Saturday
night mainly in the teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Interesting developments as we enter into the last week of 2020
here in the long-term. That includes 1) some high-latitude
blocking/warming with strong anomalous ridging developing over
the eastern/Atlantic side of the Arctic including the North
Atlantic/Greenland area, and 2) an active weather pattern
continuing as we have a couple of more storm systems riding
along this active wave train during this time. The mean storm
track looks like it will be placed further to our west
stretching from the central Plains to the Midwest/Great Lakes.
Overall, the theme during this time period will be active/wet
and warmer than normal.
We start off the long-term period Sunday morning with much of the
forecast area dry under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. The
exception will be our northwestern zones (Herkimer and Hamilton
Counties). Here, we'll have mostly cloudy skies with lake effect
snow showers coming to an end as west winds in the boundary layer
lighten up thanks in large to a broad 1020 mb surface high pressure
system that will be overhead.
While Sunday will be mostly tranquil for most, focus quickly shifts
to one of potentially two storm systems that will impact the ALY
area during this long-term period.
During the day on Sunday, the aforementioned surface high pressure
system translates to our east. This synoptic setup will allow for a
return flow out of the south/southwest to develop and hence the
onset of moisture advection and isentropic lift into the region
ahead of a developing mid-latitude cyclone to our west. By Monday
morning, the center of the 1008 mb mid-latitude cyclone will be well
to our west-northwest as it tracks up the central Great Lakes west
of the St.Lawrence River Valley. The warm front associated with this
storm system will still be well to our south. However, continued
warm air advection (WAA) amid the return flow will allow for
planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperatures particularly in the
valleys to warm above 32F. Precipitation will begin to overspread
the forecast area Monday morning into Monday afternoon as moisture
advection, isentropic lifting, and synoptic ascent/forcing
increase or strengthen. Should precipitation begin early (i.e.
Monday morning), we could see a brief period of precipitation at
onset in the valleys fall as sleet/ice pellets or a rain/snow
mix before transitioning to all rain. If precipitation begins
more towards noon, we could see precip. start off as all rain
especially our southern zones (i.e. Poughkeepsie area).
Precipitation types (p-types) will likely start off as a
rain/snow mix over the Rensselaer Plateau, Schoharie, and
western Mohawk Valleys. Things should start off as snow across
some of our highest elevations (i.e. SW Adirondacks, Berkshires,
southern Greens). Thermal columns should cool/deepen with
freezing levels dropping by Monday evening as the storm system
lifts to our north over Ontario/Quebec. This will effectively
allow for p-types to change over to a rain/snow mix across the
valleys and snow elsewhere by Monday evening. With the storm
system to our north- northeast, winds out of the north, and
favorable thermodynamics (i.e. differential lake-850 mb
temperatures on the order of 20-25C) in place, it's possible
that lake effect snow showers (LES) develop Monday night. Lake
effect snow showers (LES) will could persist through about 18z
Tuesday (Tuesday afternoon) before fading as a strong 1032-1036
mb surface high pressure system approaches from the west. As far
as lake effect snow coverage, our typical LES prone western
counties will be at greatest risk for seeing lake enhanced snow
showers Monday night-Tuesday. Tuesday will be dry for most with
the storm system having departed to our northeast.
Lake effect snow showers should come to an end by Tuesday evening
with the entire are precipitation-free (tranquil) into Wednesday
morning.
After a brief break from storm system #1 Tuesday-Wednesday, another
storm system (storm system #2) along the wave train approaches the
forecast area from the west. Development will take place somewhere
over the interior U.S. There remains a large spread regarding the
timing and track amongst the deterministic solutions with the latest
0z GFS being the quickest, the ECMWF being the slowest, and the
Canadian-NH being middle of the road. Using the NBM, will go with
introducing precipitation into the area from west to east sometime
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. So an active weather
pattern continues through the long-term period. Stay tuned for more
details!
As for temperatures, we'll see a warmer than normal bias overall
during the long-term forecast period. High temperatures on Sunday
will be i the low to mid 30s across most areas (upper 20s higher
elevations), upper 30s to lower 40s across most areas on Monday, mid
20s to low 30s Tuesday and Wednesday, and mid to upper 30s on
Thursday. Low temperatures will fall into the 20s area wide Sunday
night, 20s (teens higher elevations) Monday night, teens (single
digits higher elevations) Tuesday night, 20s (teens higher
elevations) Wednesday night, and 20s most locations Thursday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aviation hazards 24.18Z-25.18Z include strong winds, wind shear, and
low cigs and vsby. Low pressure will be lifting northward, spreading
unseasonably high moisture into the area. Mid and high moisture is
spreading into the terminals at the beginning of the period, but VFR
conditions are expected to continue for at least the next 2-4 hours
before low levels begin to moisten. There is currently low
confidence as to the timing of the onset of IFR conditions. This TAF
cycle has pushed back the timing of the IFR conditions after
incorporating new hi-res guidance, with the reasoning being that
strong low-level winds with a downslope component may keep cigs/vsby
elevated to MVFR levels until 05-08Z. However, it will be close as
the lower cigs may be located just to the west of the terminals. We
expect cigs and vsby to fall to IFR (possibly LIFR) levels due to a
combination of increasing rainfall and fog/mist as moist air is
brought over the snowpack. Currently, the probability of dense fog
appears low due to the elevated winds. Best timeframe for the lowest
cigs/vsby to occur is 05-15Z, although future updates can be
anticipated. There is a nonzero probability of a lightning strike
mainly 06-12Z, but confidence is not high enough to include in the
TAFs at this time. Rain could be briefly heavy during this timeframe.
Low level wind shear conditions will be common throughout the TAF
period as SSE 2kft winds increase to 45-60 kt, peaking 06-12Z. Winds
at the surface will increase as well, especially in the 05-15Z
timeframe where SSE gusts of 30-40 kt are possible at times
(although the prevalence of this magnitude of gust is uncertain
given that the highest winds may stay elevated just above the
surface). Gusts of 20-30 kt should be common at least.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHSN.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire forecast area from
6 PM Thursday to 6 PM Friday...
A storm system and cold front approaching from the west will
bring moderate to heavy rain to the region late tonight into
Friday. In addition, strong winds and unseasonably mild/moist
air will allow for significant snowmelt.
Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected tonight into Friday
morning, with localized amounts of 4-6 inches possible across
the eastern Catskills. Significant snowmelt is expected, but it
is uncertain how much of the snowpack will be lost during this
event.
Due to this potential for heavy rain, and significant snow melt
(even now across the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks), a flood
watch has been issued for the entire region from Thursday
evening through Friday afternoon.
Trends will be watched closely, especially regarding snowmelt
potential, to determine potential extent of flooding. Minor to
major river flooding will be possible, especially for
rivers/streams east of the Hudson River (along the Walloomsac,
Hoosic and Mettawee Rivers) and across the Schoharie
Valley/eastern Catskills and Lake George Saratoga region, along
with urban and small stream flooding, especially where storm
drains remain clogged from snow and ice.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from 6 PM EST this evening through Friday
afternoon for CTZ001-013.
High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch from 6 PM EST this evening through Friday
afternoon for NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for
NYZ047-051-058-063.
High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
for NYZ054-061-066.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for
NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065-084.
MA...Flood Watch from 6 PM EST this evening through Friday
afternoon for MAZ001-025.
High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch from 6 PM EST this evening through Friday
afternoon for VTZ013>015.
High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
for VTZ013-014.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...KL/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Evbuoma
AVIATION...Thompson
HYDROLOGY...KL/RathbunHazardous weather outlook, Dec 24, 4:54 AM EST, 8 hours 13 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albany NY 454 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 NYZ032-033-038>043-048-082-083-VTZ015-251000- Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton- Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington- Western Schenectady-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Eastern Windham- 454 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Lake George Saratoga region of eastern New York, and eastern Windham County in southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Lake Effect snow may produce localized moderate amounts of snow across the southwest Adirondacks Saturday afternoon and night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Please relay rainfall amounts, and/or any observed flooding to the National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC guidelines. CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ054-061-066-VTZ013-014-251000- Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire- Southern Berkshire-Eastern Rensselaer-Eastern Columbia- Eastern Dutchess-Bennington-Western Windham- 454 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, the Taconics eastern New York and for Bennington and western Windham Counties of southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Please relay rainfall amounts, any observed flooding, and/or wind damage reports to the National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC guidelines. NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065-084-251000- Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Eastern Albany- Western Rensselaer-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Ulster- Western Dutchess-Southern Washington- 454 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the greater Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley region of eastern New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Please relay rainfall amounts, any observed flooding, and/or wind damage reports to the National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC guidelines. NYZ047-051-058-063-251000- Schoharie-Western Albany-Western Greene-Western Ulster- 454 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the eastern Catskills and Schoharie County of east central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Please relay rainfall amounts, any observed flooding, and/or wind damage reports to the National Weather Service while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Albany, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 24, 3:44 AM EST | Wind Advisory | ALY | Albany, Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Rensselaer, Saratoga and 4 more | 30 hr |
| Dec 24, 12:59 PM EST | River Flood Warning | ALY | Greene, Schoharie | 25 hr |
| Dec 24, 12:59 PM EST | River Flood Warning | ALY | Schoharie | 42 hr |
| Dec 24, 12:59 PM EST | River Flood Warning | ALY | Montgomery, Schenectady, Schoharie | 52 hr |
| Dec 24, 12:59 PM EST | River Flood Warning | ALY | Montgomery, Schoharie | 48 hr |
| Dec 24, 1:03 PM EST | River Flood Warning | ALY | Rensselaer, Washington | 34 hr |
| Dec 24, 1:07 PM EST | River Flood Warning | ALY | Ulster | 33 hr |
| Dec 24, 1:07 PM EST | River Flood Warning | ALY | Ulster | 29 hr |
| Dec 24, 1:08 PM EST | River Flood Warning | ALY | Washington | 36 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in New York, 2020Every river flood warning in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.