Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
113 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough of low pressure will linger across the local
area today, with high pressure slowly building in from
the northwest Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 900 AM EDT Wednesday...

Bumped up pops this morning from the northern neck over to the
eastern shore, as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
continue to develop across the area. Latest hi-res guidance
continues to show coverage increasing after noon today. Went
with a general 40-50% pop coverage across the area for this
afternoon and early evening. SPC still has much of the region in
a marginal risk for severe wx, with damaging winds being the
primary threat. High temperatures this afternoon in the mid to
upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...

Convection to wane this evening...otw VRB clouds/partly cloudy
conditions overnight. Lows in the m-u60s...except l70s in the
metro areas in SE VA. Upper level lo pres is slow to shift E
Thu w/ flow aloft increasingly NNW. Will keep lo PoPs INVOF NE
NC Thu (midday/afternoon)...otw expecting less convective
development. Partly to mostly sunny Thu w/ NNW winds aob 10 mph.
Highs in the m-u80s w/ dew points (by afternoon) avgg in the
m-u60s (down a few degs F from today).

Flow aloft remains NNW Thu night through Fri w/ sfc hi pres in
the Midwest stretching ewd into the local area. SKC-partly
cloudy w/ lows Thu night from 65-70F...except l70s in the metro
areas. Highs Fri in the l90s...except u80s at the beaches. Would
not rule out ISOLD/SCT tstms Fri afternoon INVOF the ern shore
as a S/W tracks S from NY/wrn New England.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

At the start of the holiday weekend the upper level trough will
be east of the area with an upper ridge trying to build in the
west. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure begins to form in the
vicinity of the FL panhandle. Most of Saturday will be dry,
however there will be about a 25% chance of late afternoon and
early evening thunderstorms. The low will remain over northern
FL this weekend and then slowly drift E/NE early next week,
resulting in enough instability over our region for diurnal
convection each day from Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures
during the period will be near seasonal norms, with high temps
ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s and low temps ranging
from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Wednesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
will result in brief periods of flight restrictions when
convection is over or near the terminals. Winds outside of
convection are light and variable. Guidance is hinting at patchy
fog overnight but mainly west of RIC, so for now will leave any
mention of fog out. Mainly VFR on Thursday outside of a slight
chance of convection in the afternoon/early evening. Drier
conditions Friday, with VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...

No headlines expected this week and into the weekend. Early this
morning, weak low pressure was over the coastal Carolinas. Winds
were SSW 5-10 kt, with waves 1-2 ft and seas around 2 ft over
the waters. Winds will be variable 10 kt or less today through
Fri night, as a couple of troughs will affect the area along
with weak high pressure building into and over the region. NE
or E winds 5-15 kt will affect the waters Sat aftn into Sun
aftn. Waves will be 1-2 ft, and seas 2-3 ft today into Sat.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JDM
NEAR TERM...CMF
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...CMF
AVIATION...CMF
MARINE...TMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
222 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-
093-095>100-509>525-020630-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
222 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected...mainly this
afternoon and this evening. Primary threats from these thunderstorms
will be strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
133 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

VAZ076-085-518>522-011815-
Western King and Queen-Middlesex-Richmond-Eastern King
William-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Eastern King and Queen-
133 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KING AND
QUEEN...NORTHWESTERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTH CENTRAL RICHMOND AND
SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTIES...

At 133 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Dunnsville to near Saint Stephens
Church. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
King William, Saint Stephens Church, Millers Tavern, Stevensville,
Center Cross, Dunnsville, Church View, Jamaica, Howertons, Laneview,
Nesting, Bowlers Wharf, Upright, Ino, Dragonville, Walkerton,
Montague, Biscoe, Crouch and Henley Fork.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these storms.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3786 7677 3781 7666 3779 7665 3778 7667
      3775 7663 3767 7660 3768 7703 3770 7704
      3772 7702 3772 7703 3775 7707 3777 7707
      3780 7710 3781 7709 3781 7711 3787 7714
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 309DEG 13KT 3782 7684 3784 7707

Poche

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