Storm Warning 42, NWS Juneau, AK

791 
FZAK52 PAJK 231330
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
430 AM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-240730-
430 AM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force low and front moves into the gulf on from the west
on Monday. The low will then track SE across the southern outside
waters on Tuesday. Seas build to high to very high wave heights 
over the outside waters as the low moves through. 

$$

PKZ041-240730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
430 AM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt in the morning increasing to 45 kt, then 
becoming SW 35 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S gale to 35 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas
30 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt. Seas
16 ft. 
.THU...W gale to 40 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-240730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
430 AM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt. Seas 10 ft building to
17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...SE gale to 35 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 28 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. W swell. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft
building to 17 ft. 
.THU...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-240730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
430 AM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 50 kt, then becoming S 35 kt
in the late afternoon. Seas 10 ft building to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...NE gale to 35 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 27 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt becoming SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft
building to 18 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-240730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
430 AM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 55 kt. Seas 10 ft building
to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming NE 25 kt late. Seas 26 ft. Rain 
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 23 ft. SW swell in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-240730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
430 AM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt increasing to 55 kt. Seas 11 ft building to
20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming N 25 kt late. Seas 26 ft. Rain 
showers in the evening. 
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. SW swell in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SE gale to 40 kt becoming SW. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

933 
FZAK52 PAJK 240016
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
316 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-241830-
316 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low will track SE across the southern outside waters
on Tuesday. Seas build to very high wave heights over the outside
waters as the low moves through. 

$$

PKZ041-241830-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
316 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 28 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 32 ft.
Rain showers in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt late. Seas 24 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. 
.WED NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 14 ft building
to 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-241830-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
316 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft building to 29 ft. Rain
showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
30 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft subsiding to 19 ft
late. W swell in the evening. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. 
.WED NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-241830-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
316 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft building to 31 ft late. Rain 
showers.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
28 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 16 ft
late. SW swell shifting to the W late. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-241830-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
316 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming E 35 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 24 ft.
SW swell in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming E late. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 12 ft late. SW swell. 
.WED...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-241830-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
316 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming N 30 kt late. Seas 25 ft. Rain 
showers in the evening. 
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft. SW swell in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 13 ft. SW
swell. 
.WED...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW gale to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
303 PM AKST Sun Nov 22 2020

.SHORT TERM...A weakening low south of Sitka will fall apart as it
pushes east into the south central panhandle. Rain associated with
this trough has pushed as far north as Gustavus and Juneau. Am
expecting this to continue through the evening before precipitation
dissipates ahead of the next approaching frontal band.

The Monday front will have ample wind and seas associated with it.
Outer coastal winds to 35 to 55 kt winds, with the strongest winds
in the northeast gulf. The parent low will continue to move
southeast and this will increase winds again Monday night for the
southeastern gulf. With all of this wind, we should see higher seas
as well. Expect to see 25 to 33 ft seas for coastal areas south of
Sitka and eastern portion of the offshore marine zone.

Rains will be the primary precipitation type for much of the
panhandle. Forecast totals range from 1 to 2 inches. Misty Fjords
and the northern panhandle will start as snow, with the rain-snow
line pushing north and east on Monday changing precipitation over to
rain or mix. Only Northern Lynn Canal area is expected to stay snow,
however the majority of the energy and moisture will also be
tracking more southward. Should see the Haines Highway receive 3 to
5 inches and roughly 3 inches on the Klondike Highway.

Through Tuesday the parent low will track southeast and this will
draw the precip along with it. A high pressure ridge from the
surface and aloft will assist with the brief drying trend. Northerly
outflow of moderate speeds will form through Lynn Canal late Tuesday
night because of the Yukon high and the low moving to Haida Gwaii.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday night/...As of Saturday
evening. By Wednesday morning, any remaining shower activity will
move inland in advance of the next approaching front. Model guidance
for winds associated with this mid-week front is quite divergent,
ranging from small craft winds to solid storm force, so current
confidence in this aspect of the forecast is definitely below
average. Associated precipitation should arrive over the northeast
Gulf coast by Wednesday afternoon as rain. Overnight lows will
likely result in a transition to snow over more inland northerly
locations, but the outer coast and southern Panhandle will likely
remain in rain through the night.

By Thursday evening as we leave the more deterministic portion of
the forecast for the more probabilistic section, model agreement
diminishes significantly. However, GFS and ECMWF are currently in
extremely good agreement on another powerful and moisture laden
front affecting Southeast Alaska Saturday through Sunday night.
GFS and the Canadian NH are also in good agreement on this weekend
storm being a high end gale event. If model agreement continues
to be this good on the wind field, look for subsequent forecasts
to reflect this with increased weekend winds over the eastern
Gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ023-027.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM AKST Monday for AKZ019.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ034-036-041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>033-035-053.

&&

Bezenek/Fritsch

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