Storm Warning 33, NWS Juneau, AK

523 
FZAK67 PAJK 231315
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
415 AM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-240715-
415 AM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A storm force low and front moves into the gulf on from the west
on Monday. The low will then track SE across the southern outside
waters on Tuesday. Seas build to high to very high wave heights 
over the outside waters as the low moves through. 

$$

PKZ310-240715-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
415 AM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind incrasing to 50 kt in the morning, then becoming
SW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft building to 23 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming NW late. Seas 31 ft. Rain
showers. 
.TUE...NW gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 24 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft
late. W swell in the evening. 
.WED...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

406 
FZAK67 PAJK 240011
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
311 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-241815-
311 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low will track SE across the southern outside waters
on Tuesday. Seas build to very high wave heights over the outside
waters as the low moves through. 

$$

PKZ310-241815-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
311 PM AKST Mon Nov 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming NW late. Seas 31 ft. Rain
showers. 
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 26 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 14 ft
late. W swell in the evening. 
.WED...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain in the evening.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
303 PM AKST Sun Nov 22 2020

.SHORT TERM...A weakening low south of Sitka will fall apart as it
pushes east into the south central panhandle. Rain associated with
this trough has pushed as far north as Gustavus and Juneau. Am
expecting this to continue through the evening before precipitation
dissipates ahead of the next approaching frontal band.

The Monday front will have ample wind and seas associated with it.
Outer coastal winds to 35 to 55 kt winds, with the strongest winds
in the northeast gulf. The parent low will continue to move
southeast and this will increase winds again Monday night for the
southeastern gulf. With all of this wind, we should see higher seas
as well. Expect to see 25 to 33 ft seas for coastal areas south of
Sitka and eastern portion of the offshore marine zone.

Rains will be the primary precipitation type for much of the
panhandle. Forecast totals range from 1 to 2 inches. Misty Fjords
and the northern panhandle will start as snow, with the rain-snow
line pushing north and east on Monday changing precipitation over to
rain or mix. Only Northern Lynn Canal area is expected to stay snow,
however the majority of the energy and moisture will also be
tracking more southward. Should see the Haines Highway receive 3 to
5 inches and roughly 3 inches on the Klondike Highway.

Through Tuesday the parent low will track southeast and this will
draw the precip along with it. A high pressure ridge from the
surface and aloft will assist with the brief drying trend. Northerly
outflow of moderate speeds will form through Lynn Canal late Tuesday
night because of the Yukon high and the low moving to Haida Gwaii.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday night/...As of Saturday
evening. By Wednesday morning, any remaining shower activity will
move inland in advance of the next approaching front. Model guidance
for winds associated with this mid-week front is quite divergent,
ranging from small craft winds to solid storm force, so current
confidence in this aspect of the forecast is definitely below
average. Associated precipitation should arrive over the northeast
Gulf coast by Wednesday afternoon as rain. Overnight lows will
likely result in a transition to snow over more inland northerly
locations, but the outer coast and southern Panhandle will likely
remain in rain through the night.

By Thursday evening as we leave the more deterministic portion of
the forecast for the more probabilistic section, model agreement
diminishes significantly. However, GFS and ECMWF are currently in
extremely good agreement on another powerful and moisture laden
front affecting Southeast Alaska Saturday through Sunday night.
GFS and the Canadian NH are also in good agreement on this weekend
storm being a high end gale event. If model agreement continues
to be this good on the wind field, look for subsequent forecasts
to reflect this with increased weekend winds over the eastern
Gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ023-027.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM AKST Monday for AKZ019.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ034-036-041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>033-035-053.

&&

Bezenek/Fritsch

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