Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
615 AM AKST Fri Jan 10 2020

Synopsis...Cold will remain over most of the forecast area.
Western areas will start warming tonight and Saturday with the
Interior and Arctic warming Sunday and Monday. A weather front
will bring snow to St Lawrence Island and the Lower Yukon Delta
by late this afternoon before the front dissipates. Temperatures
in the Interior will remain cold, but lows tonight will be a
degree or two warmer for most locations. Temperatures rise a
little more Saturday night with a significant warming trend
starting by late Sunday. Still have some winds over summits to the
west of Fairbanks, and wind chill advisories remain in place for
mainly summits and the Delta Junction area and Tanana Flats. The
Arctic remains quiet, but winds will start increasing as they
swing around out of the southeast, and gusty south winds will be
developing near the Brooks Range Passes Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Temperatures continue to be problematic and a real
challenge for the solutions the past week. 10/00Z solutions are no
different as they struggle with the temperatures over most of the
forecast area. Will maintain continuity again today by not making
any significant area wide changes to the current forecast database
in the first 48 hours. The temperatures on Sunday are a bit too
cold, so will make some changes to the Sunday and Monday highs and
Monday lows. Winds are also a challenge as winds on the summits
west and northwest of Fairbanks are still relatively strong and
will be diminishing later tonight. Solutions remain in fairly
good agreement big picture wise and agree on the evolution of the
ridge and how it breaks down, and are pretty agreeable even into
the extended periods. Surface solutions initialized well against
the 10/06Z surface analysis, and show a similar trend of good
agreement but only to about 96 hours before there area some
pretty significant differences. Precipitation solutions area in
good agreement. Winds are a bit stronger in the NAM solution, so
will lean that way again today.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridge axis lies over the West Coast this
morning with a 535 dam high over Point Hope. Troughing associated
with a 500 dam low over Western Nunavut Canada is digging to the
southwest over the Tanana Valley today as it slowly moves south
and east. The 530 dam low that developed south of Sand Point
yesterday has moved to just west of the Queen Charlotte Islands
this morning. The ridge axis over the West Coast will move to lie
over Prince William Sound to Fairbanks to Prudhoe Bay and north
Sunday morning with a 540 dam high over the Eastern Brooks Range.
A 497 dam low will move over the Western Bering Sea Friday, and
north of the Gulf of Anadyr by Sunday morning with a trough
extending southeast over St Lawrence Island to Bethel to Pilot
Point. As the trough moves northeast into the state the ridge will
tilt to lie from a 538 dam high over the Southern Beaufort Sea to
Circle to Valdez Monday morning and the low will move to Wrangel
Island at 503 dam. The high over the Beaufort Sea will then move
southeast into Canada as the trough move east across the state.
At 850 hpa...-20C isotherm lies from Glennallen to Delta Junction
to Old Crow YT, and by Saturday morning it will lie from Eagle to
Glennallen. The -10C isotherm lies from Kalskag to Shaktoolik,
then north of St Lawrence Island this morning and push north and
east to lie from Denali to Huslia to Point Lay by Saturday
morning. Temperatures over most of the forecast area will be
around -10C by Sunday morning. At 925 hpa...Still have a pretty
good core of winds, mainly west of a line from Bettles to
Fairbanks, of 25 to 50 mph that will bring increased winds to
summits in the area. The core of winds will sweep to the north as
the surface front moves into the area Friday night and Saturday
as the winds diminish.

Surface...High pressure over most of mainland Alaska with a 1039
mb high in the Upper Tanana Valley, a 1037 mb high in the Eastern
Arctic Plain, and a 1031 mb high 200 nm northwest of Utqiagvik.
High pressure extends northwest into the high Arctic. High
pressure also extends south into the North Pacific over King
Salmon. A 965 mb low 150 nm north of Kiska will move to the
Western Gulf of Anadyr by Sunday morning. A weather front will
move northeast into the West Coast tonight as it dissipates.
Another weather front will move northeast into the West Coast
Saturday evening. As the low move north the pressure gradient
will tighten across the coastal areas and into the Western
Interior. The Tanana Valley Jet will redevelop tonight with winds
kicking up west of Tok to Nenana. The strongest winds will be
around Delta Junction. High pressure will persist in the Upper
Tanana Valley and Upper Yukon Flats as the high in the Arctic
moves east. Weak troughing developing north of the Brooks Range
and the Alaska Range with south winds developing near the passes
in both ranges.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Not much change from yesterday.
Mostly clear skies through the day. Winds generally less than 10
mph today, but will be picking up and swinging around to southeast
as low pressure pushes east over the Arctic Plains. Temperatures
will remain cold, but do warm a few degrees over the next couple
days. As the leeside troughing develops north of the Brooks Range,
gusty south winds will develop near passes. Expect some blowing
and drifting snow to develop with reduce visibility near the
passes.

West Coast and Western Interior...Another decaying weather front
will move to the Lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island this
morning with a few flurries possible before it dissipates. The
front will bring some increased wind to those areas so expect some
local areas of blowing snow. Another front will move to those
areas tonight bringing a better chance of snow, some stronger
winds, and blowing and drifting snow that may impact travel. The
front continue northeast up the coast with most of the
precipitation staying over the coast with just a few flurries
inland. Yet another front will move over the coast Saturday night
spreading snow as far north as the Bering Strait. The front will
push inland Sunday spreading snow to the Middle Yukon, and north
to the Kotzebue Sound region. The cold thats had a grip on the
area will slowly let go starting Saturday with temperatures rising
sharply Saturday night and Sunday. Gusty winds on the summits of
the Nulato Hills and the Seward Peninsula diminishing tonight.

Central and Eastern Interior...Continued mostly clear through
Saturday for most areas. Areas with ice fog will also have some
low hanging stratus at times. For the Fairbanks areas near power
plants some industrial flurries are possible as the atmosphere
wrings out the moisture in the power plant plumes. Ice fog
conditions will improve some as the temperatures warm slightly.
Winds over summits west and northwest of Fairbanks mixing out the
cold with much warmer temperatures above 1500 feet. Expect some
blowing snow and Wind Chill at Ptarmigan Pass along the Elliott
Highway, and Gobblers Knob on the Dalton Highway, as well as other
summits in those areas. Inversions in the valleys will strengthen
as warmer air aloft pushes east. Temperatures in the Fairbanks
area will vary with warmer temperatures in the hills around town,
with the coldest temperatures in the North Pole area east of
Badger Road.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A front will be working its
way northeast across the state after spreading snow up the West
Coast Sunday. Snow will push into the Western Interior and north
into the Upper Kobuk basin Sunday night, then into the Central
Interior and Central Brooks Range during the day Monday. The front
falls apart, but will continue to bring some light snow to
locations north of the Tanana Valley through Tuesday. A the low
moves into the Arctic, the front will move east over the coast
spreading snow to most of the Arctic Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ209-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ219-AKZ221-
AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215.

&&

SDB JAN 20