Wind Chill Advisory 23, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
225 PM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across northern Alaska will keep cold temperatures
in place throughout the week. Locally gusty winds across the North
Slope, West Coast, and high terrain of Interior Alaska will
produce dangerously cold wind chills. Low pressure in the Gulf of
Alaska will bring light snow to the southeastern Interior today
through Thursday. A front will move into the Yukon Delta and
portions of the western and central Interior Saturday, bringing
light snow to those areas through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft at 500 mb...
A closed low over the eastern Beaufort Sea north of Kaktovik will
begin to slide southwest Thursday and most models show the center
of the low will be inland south of Prudhoe Bay by Thu evening. Low
pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will shift eastward by the end of
the week, allowing an amplified ridge currently over the Bering
Strait and West Coast to move inland Thu and Fri. As the low over
the eastern North Slope pushes south and another low pushes east
into the Bering Sea, the ridge will become tilted and oriented in
a northwest to southeast direction Friday. By the weekend, there
will generally be troughing across the North Slope, Bering Sea,
and far western Alaska, with ridging over the majority of Interior
Alaska.

North Slope and Brooks Range...A surface low north of Barter
Island will weaken and slide southwest to north of Nuiqsut early
Thursday. Little to no accumulating snowfall is expected, but
flurries are possible from Nuiqsut east tonight and Thursday. West
winds are expected to continue to decrease tonight as the low
approaches, and with the lighter winds wind chill values will
diminish. High pressure north of Utqiagvik will deepen, allowing
the extremely cold temperatures to persist into the weekend along
the Arctic coast and North Slope. East winds will also increase
along the NW Arctic coast and result in wind chill readings likely
falling to 50 to 70 below Thursday night into Friday morning.

West Coast and western Interior...Cold temperatures will persist
across western Alaska through the end of the week. Northerly
winds will continue to diminish from the Seward Peninsula north
through tonight, so while cold temperatures remain, wind chill
values will not be as severe. As a low pressure system moves
northeast into the Bering Sea Thursday, winds from Norton Sound
south will become easterly and increase to 15 to 30 knots. Friday,
this wind shift and increase will be felt along the entire Bering
Sea and northwest Arctic coasts. Additionally, a front will extend
from the Bering Sea low northeast across the YK Delta and into
Norton Sound. This will bring snow to the west coast and western
Interior, which will spread northeast over the weekend as the
front spreads into the Interior. Wind chill and/or winter weather
headlines may be necessary Friday and into the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...Cold temperatures will be an issue
over the next few days. Winds have begun to decrease across the
higher terrain and will continue to diminish tonight, so have
cancelled the wind chill headlines in the Interior this afternoon.
Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will continue east over the
next couple of days, and this supports light snow across the
southeastern Interior which is ongoing and expected to continue
through early Thursday. Snowfall totals are expected to be between
1 and 5 inches along and south and east of a line from Eagle to
Salcha, with the most significant accumulation east of Delta
Junction. Fairbanks may see flurries off and on tonight, but no
accumulating snow in town is expected. Cold temperatures will
quickly return to the area Thursday as the system moves east into
Canada, and will remain in place into the weekend. Late Saturday,
a front associated with a low pressure system in the Bering Sea is
expected to extend into Interior Alaska, bringing more snowfall
to primarily western and central Interior Alaska through the
remainder of the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ204-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ218-AKZ219-
AKZ220-AKZ221.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ203.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ224.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

AEH/EWP FEB 20