Brisk Wind Advisory 50, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow will be winding down this morning across the southeast
Interior as low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska moves into the
panhandle. Cold temperatures will linger across the state
supported by persistent high pressure to the north. Dangerous wind
chills are expected to continue across the higher terrain of the
Interior, and again Thursday evening across the West Coast as east
winds ramp up. The next weather system of interest will move into
the southern Bering Sea this morning. Snow and somewhat milder
temperatures will accompany the associated front which will reach
the Y-K Delta early Friday. Snow will spread north across the West
Coast and western Interior this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft 500 mb...
Longwave troughing encompasses the central and wester Bering Sea,
anchored by a deep closed 494 dam low near the Rat Islands. A high
amplitude ridge extends northwest from the central Pacific to
Bristol Bay, the Gulf of Anadyr, and eastern Siberia. Broad low
pressure remains entrenched across northeast Alaska and the
Beaufort Coast. The pattern remains progressive as the Bering Sea
low will track northeast, passing the Pribilofs to the west
Friday, causing the ridge over western Alaska to essentially be
bisected. Over the weekend, the pattern will feature generally
weak forcing aloft across Alaska. Low pressure will sweep
southeast from Kamchatka Saturday into Sunday and tap into north
Pacific energy, setting up a potential storm for the southwest
coast early Monday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A weak surface low centered roughly 100 nm northeast of Prudhoe
Bay will track southwest, reaching the coast near Nuiqsut this
morning. Cloudy skies and a few flurries are likely as the system
passes, then weakens throughout the day. High pressure will build
north of Point Barrow, reinforcing cold temperatures across the
region through this weekend. The pressure gradient will tighten
along the eastern Alaska Range late Friday into Saturday,
resulting in gusty south winds across the higher terrain, and
strong east winds along the coast. This will likely result in
dangerously cold wind chills to the region. Additionally, strong
east winds are expected to develop along the Chukchi Coast from
Wainwright southeast to Cape Lisburne. A Wind Chill Warning has
been issued as wind chills near Point Lay may reach near 70 below
with wind gusts up to 35 mph Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Cold temperatures are expected to linger through the weekend
across the region. East winds will increase this evening into
Friday as a deep low tacks into the central Bering Sea. High
pressure across the Interior will support a relatively weak
easterly drainage wind, but will be sufficient to trigger Wind
Chill Advisories, which have now been issued. Wind chills
generally 40 to 50 below can be expected Friday into this weekend.
A weather front associated with the Bering low will move up the
coast to the Yukon Delta Friday. Snow and milder temperatures are
expected to slowly move up the coast and into the lower Yukon
Valley this weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow across the upper Tanana Valley will move east into
Canada as the parent low to the south moves into the Alaska
panhandle. Cold temperatures will linger through the weekend,
though increasing diurnal heating should moderate temperatures
during the daytime by around 10 to 20 degrees. East to northeast
winds will begin to increase again across the higher terrain of
the Interior Friday, and may be strong enough to prompt Wind Chill
Advisories into the weekend. Valley areas will be largely
unaffected, with wind chills to around 50 below confined to
summits of the Dalton, Steese, and Elliot Highways.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ213-
AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ201.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

COWMAN FEB 20