Wind Advisory 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

044 
WWAK73 PAFG 221916
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1116 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

AKZ222-222200-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-200322T2200Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including the cities of Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, 
Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika, 
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
1116 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 25 mph gusting to 35 mph.

* WHERE...Middle Tanana Valley.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM AKDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Trees could be blown down and power outages may 
  result. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Snow 
  will blow into drifts.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...West winds gusting to 35 mph are now
  occuring. Winds will decrease to less than 30 mph by 2pm today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

358 
WWAK73 PAFG 222152
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
152 PM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

AKZ222-222300-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-200322T2200Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including the cities of Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, 
Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika, 
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
152 PM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds are now decreasing. Winds are expected to remain less than 
30 mph for the rest of this afternoon. 

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
554 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

.Synopsis...Very active pattern will continue across the area with
a variety of weather hazards impacting the forecast area. Fairly
strong west to northwest flow aloft will persist. Snow ending in
the Eastern Interior this morning, but developing on the West
Coast as a front moves through the area, spreading east today and
tonight. Snow accumulations generally 2 to 4 inches. Much heavier
amounts possible on west and northwest facing slopes through
midweek as waves of moisture move through the flow. A low moving
across the Arctic will bring some clearing to the coastal areas
Tuesday, but will bring potential for heavy snowfall to the
northwest facing slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range east of the
Dalton Highway. Temperatures cooler today, then warming slightly
which will bring a chance of rain mixing with the snow south of
the Yukon River during the afternoon hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Excellent run to run continuity in the short term and
the 22/00Z solutions are in agreement and handle the fast moving
waves well showing difference in strength, speed, and location
through around 60 hours. Solutions diverge beyond 60 hours or so
in the handling of a low moving over the top of the Pacific ridge
over the Bering Sea, and the handling of a wave dropping out of
the high Arctic. There is still a lot of disagreement late in the
extended periods so will once again lean on the GFS since it has
been much better the last couple months. Surface solutions are in
good agreement through the midrange, with some differences in the
details. The low moving along the Arctic Coast Tuesday showing
about a 8 mb range which will have a significant impact on wind
strength as it moves to the Eastern Arctic Coast , but no
significant differences in strength of features show up that would
impact the forecast. Surface solutions initialized well against
the local 22/06Z analysis. Will be using mainly the NAM solution
for winds, and a blend of solutions for precipitation.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad cyclonic/zonal flow over the forecast
area persists with several shortwaves moving across the state
through the week. Zonal flow continues over the Arctic as a 474
dam low high in the Arctic near the Dateline moves east to 800 nm
north of Utqiagvik this afternoon, and 600 nm north of Banks
Island by Monday morning. A strong shortwave is moving over the
Beaufort Sea this morning and extends southwest over the Central
Brooks Range. It will continue to move southeast with the tail end
pushing south over the Central and Eastern Interior. Strong west
to northwest flow will persist over the state with the low in the
high Arctic and ridging over the North Pacific extending north
over the Bering Sea. The ridging flattens out as a ridge axis
rotates to the east, and a low will move out of the Northwest
Pacific over the Central Bering Sea Tuesday at 552 dam, and
continue to move over the ridge and southeast over Bristol Bay as
it pulls back to the south. At 850 hpa...Thermal trough over the
state with the -10C isotherm lying south of the Alaska Range, then
northwest over the Bering Strait, and the -20C isotherm lying
from MacKenzie Bay over the Brooks Range to Anaktuvuk Pass, then
northwest over Point Lay. The thermal trough will slide east and
by Monday morning the -20C isotherm will be northeast of the
state, the -10C isotherm will lie from Yakutat to Talkeetna to
Livengood to Point Lay, and the 0C isotherm will move northeast to
the Lower Yukon Delta Coast, and over St Lawrence Island. Through
Tuesday morning temperatures south of the Brooks Range will warm
2C to 4C and the -10C isotherm moves north to lie from Old Crow YT
over the Brooks Range then south of Wrangel Island. Tuesday night
and Wednesday temperatures will cool as the
-10C isotherm moves to lie from Eagle to Tanana to Shishmaref by
Wednesday afternoon, and the -20C isotherm will move south over
the Arctic Coast.

Surface...High pressure over most of the state with a front
exiting to the east this morning, and another front developing
over the West Coast and Chukchi Sea. A 1048 mb high has moved to
the Pribilofs this morning with high pressure extending north over
the Lower Yukon Delta to the Upper Kobuk and over the Arctic
Coast. High pressure has also pushed east over the Alaska Range. A
trough over low pressure remains over the Upper Yukon Flats this
morning, but will be pushed east as the high pressure rotates
east. As the high pressure rolls over the state a 1032 mb high
will develop in the Eastern Arctic Plains, another 1032 mb high
will be over the Northern Yukon Territory, a 1035 mb high will be
in the Middle Koyukuk Valley, a 1029 mb high will develop in the
Upper Tanana Valley, while the high near the Pribilofs will move
to Bristol Bay at 1049 mb. High pressure will also push northwest
into the Siberian Arctic north of Wrangel Island. A front
associated with a 990 mb low in the Sea of Ohkotsk extends east
across the Gulf of Anadyr to the lower Yukon Delta this morning,
and by this afternoon a 1007 mb low will develop over Siberia
along the front that will lie along the Siberian Coast across the
Chukchi Sea to Shishmaref to Elim to Bethel. Monday morning high
pressure will continue to rotate east and south and will generally
be south of the Yukon River over the Interior, but high pressure
will extend northwest from MacKenzie Bay across the Arctic to 200
nm north of Wrangel Island. The front that was over the West Coast
will move east as a the low moves to the Northwest Arctic Coast
at 1010 mb and the front will extend southeast to Anaktuvuk Pass,
then south over the Middle Yukon Valley. Through the day Monday,
the front will move east as the low moves to the Eastern Arctic
Coast at 1011 mb, and the front will be east of the border by late
Monday afternoon. A 1014 mb high will develop behind the front
100 nm north of Utqiagvik. West to northwest flow will persist
between the ranges through Tuesday afternoon. A 1005 mb low will
move to 300 nm west of Wrangel Island by Monday morning with a
front extending east and south into the Chukchi Sea. The low will
move to 300 nm north of Point Lay by Tuesday morning with the
front extending southeast over the Central Brooks Range, and into
the Central Interior.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Blizzard conditions on the Eastern
Arctic Coast ending this morning as the winds diminish. A front
will be moving across the Arctic tonight and Monday spreading more
snow to the area as the low moves from near Wrangel Island to
Kaktovik. Snowfall accumulations through Monday morning up to 2
inches. West to northwest flow will persist across the area for
the next several days with potential for significant snowfall in
the Eastern Brooks Range Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures
warming slightly. Winds southwest to northwest 10 to 20 mph except
for the winds gusting to 35 mph this morning on the Eastern Arctic
Coast.

West Coast and Western Interior...Front continues to develop this
morning near the West Coast and will move inland. Snow is falling
along the coast and will spread inland through the day tapering
off along the coast to snow showers tonight. West to northwest
flow will continue to bring snow and snow showers to the area
through at least mid week. There is high potential for heavy
snowfall on west facing slopes over the next few days. Winds 5 to
15 mph. Temperatures warmer.

Central and Eastern Interior...Improving conditions this morning
across the area, and winds will be diminishing by afternoon.
Temperatures a little cooler today, then slightly warmer Monday
and Tuesday. Another weather front will move through the area
tonight spreading snow across the area with the potential for
heavy snow in the Middle Koyukuk Valley, and generally east of
North Pole in the Salcha River Basin, the Goodpaster River basin,
and the Upper Chena River Basin over the next few days as fairly
strong west to northwest flow persists aloft. With the
temperatures warming, there is a chance during the afternoon
Monday and Tuesday of rain mixing with the snow.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Strong west to northwest flow
across the state will bring high potential for continued snowfall
across the Interior with heavy snow possible on west and
northwest facing slopes through Thursday. Improving conditions
late Thursday as high pressure pushes south and east over the
state pushing the stalled weather front south. A Weather front
will move to the West Coast by Friday afternoon while the snow
over the Upper Tanana Valley will be tapering off. Winds west to
northwest at 5 to 25 mph with strongest winds on the Eastern
Arctic Coast and through the Bering Strait.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ213-AKZ218-AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ224-
AKZ225-AKZ226.

Gale Warning for PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ240.

&&

SDB MAR 20