Gale Warning 38, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
548 AM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

.Synopsis...More snow for the Interior today with snow tapering
off to the west through the day. Snow in the Interior will be
tapering off overnight and Sunday morning. Winds picking up on
the summits as the front moves through the Interior with blowing
snow impacting visibility on those summits. Blizzard developing
on the Eastern Arctic Coast tonight and continuing into Sunday
afternoon around Kaktovik. High pressure will build north over the
West Coast this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Good run to run continuity in the short term as the
21/00Z solutions are in good agreement and handle the fast moving
waves well showing difference in strength, speed, and location.
Solutions diverge beyond 78 hours or so on the handling of a low
moving over the top of the Pacific ridge over the Bering Sea, and
the handling of a low dropping out of the high Arctic. By next
Friday the GFS has ridging over the state, while the ECMWF is
dropping a 490 dam low over the northwest Arctic. At this point, I
am leaning toward the GFS since it has been much better the last
couple months in the extended periods. Surface solutions are in
good agreement to around 60 hours before some differences in
strength of features show up that could impact wind strength in
the Arctic. Otherwise surface solutions initialized well against
the local 21/06Z analysis. Will be using mainly the NAM solution
for winds, and a blend of solutions for precipitation.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad cyclonic/zonal flow over the forecast
area today will persist through the weekend. Several shortwaves
will be moving across the state. Weak ridging over the West Coast
south of the Bering Strait has moved rapidly across the state with
the axis lying from Yakutat to Utqiagvik this morning. A strong
shortwave is moving over the West Coast this morning as a 531 dam
low has moved over St Matthew Island. As the shortwave moves east
over the Western Interior this morning the low will move over the
southwest mainland, and the ridge axis will move east of the AlCan
Border. By this evening the shortwave will lie from Utqiagvik to
Tanana to the low that is not just south of the Kenai Peninsula at
534 dam. Cyclonic flow continues over the Arctic as it extends
southeast from a 472 dam low in the high Siberian Arctic. A strong
shortwave will develop over the Siberian Arctic west of Wrangel
Island this afternoon, and move rapidly east to the Dateline this
evening, and to the Eastern Arctic by Sunday morning as the low
moves to 800 nm north of Utqiagvik at 474 dam. The tail end of the
shortwave will move over the Eastern Brooks Range Sunday morning.
The shortwave over the state will move east of the AlCan Border
early Sunday morning as the low to the south moves southeast over
the Gulf of Alaska. Strong west to northwest flow will persist
over the state as the low in the high Arctic moves over the
Canadian Archipelago, and ridging over the North Pacific flattens
out as a ridge axis rotates to the east. At 850 hpa...The -10C
isotherm lies from Eagle to Ambler to Kotzebue to Golovin to
Kipnuk this morning, and the -20C isotherm is northwest of the
state. Temperatures will cool across the state through the day and
by Sunday morning the -10C isotherm will lie from Eagle to
Glennallen to Sleetmute to the Diomede, while the -20C isotherm
will push south to lie over the Brooks Range from MacKenzie Bay to
Anaktuvuk Pass, then northwest over Point Lay. While some warming
will occur over the West Coast Sunday, in the Central and Eastern
Interior, and Central and Eastern Arctic, temperatures will fall
as colder temperatures are pulled south. Warmer temperatures will
push northeast into the state Monday with the -10C isotherm moving
to lie from Yakutat to Glennallen to Beaver to Point Lay. Much
warmer temperatures will move over the West Coast south of the
Bering Strait as the 0C isotherm surges north.

Surface...Broad low pressure over the state today with a front
exiting the Arctic to the east, and another front developing over
the Siberian Arctic. Weak high pressure is over the Central Arctic
and will move east and weaken today. Weather front developing
over the West Coast with a 1011 mb low nears Point Lay, a 1011 mb
low in Kotzebue Sound, and a 1020 mb low in Bristol Bay will be
moving east today and by mid morning will lie from Utqiagvik to
Ambler and south. By mid afternoon the front will lie from a 1009
mb low near Barter Island to Fairbanks to a 1010 mb low in the
Northern Gulf of Alaska. The front will move east of the AlCan
late this evening. As the front moves east high pressure will
build north over the West Coast this afternoon as 1046 mb high
moves to the Pribilofs. Through the evening high pressure will
build east over the Arctic Coast and Plains with a 1036 mb high
near Umiat, and north of the Alaska Range. The high pressure will
rotate to the southeast as a front develops over Siberia and
pushes southeast over the West Coast. High pressure will continue
to roll over and the front will lie over the Siberian Coast
southeast across the Chukchi Sea to Kotzebue Sound then south to
the Lower Yukon Delta Sunday afternoon. By Monday morning a 1009
mb low will develop along the front near the Northwest Arctic
Coast and the front will lie over the Western Interior.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Some light snow at times today as
a low moves east across the area. Snow accumulations up to 2
inches along the coast with some heavier amounts in the Eastern
Brooks Range. Snow tapering off overnight. Temperatures cooling.
Winds southwest to west 10 to 25 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...Front over the area will move
east this morning with snow tapering off by late afternoon in the
Interior areas. Some clearing during the day, then cloudy as the
next weather front moves to the coast. West to northwest winds 5
to 15 mph for most areas. Some stronger winds around Kotzebue
Sound with gusts to around 40 mph at Deering and Buckland. High
pressure building north later with winds diminishing. Snow will
develop Sunday morning as the next front moves to the coast.
Temperatures cooler today, then some warming along the coast
Sunday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Snow developing this morning then
tapering off from the west early Sunday morning. Winds will pick
up over summits this afternoon and with the snow blowing and
drifting snow with hinder travel over the highway summits. Expect
winds gusting to around 35 mph on the summits this evening and
diminishing before noon Sunday. Snow accumulations today up to 5
inches with the heaviest amounts in the White Mountains and the
Upper Salcha Basin east and southeast of Eielson AFB. Heavy snow
possible west of Polychrome Pass today and tonight. A stronger
front moving across the area Sunday night and Monday has the
potential to bring some very heavy snow to the area with around 5
inches in the Upper Salcha Basin. Heavy snow potential will
continue through Wednesday for the White Mountains and the Upper
Salcha Basin. Temperatures cooler through the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Strong west to northwest flow
across the state will bring high potential for heavy snow to west
and northwest facing slopes through Thursday. Winds west to north
at 5 to 25 mph with strongest winds on the Eastern Arctic Coast
and through the Bering Strait.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ222.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB MAR 20