Storm Warning 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

562 
FZAK51 PAFG 051730
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast For Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
830 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ298-060430-
830 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1003 MB low 150 NM northeast of Barter Island will move east
today. A very strong 954 mb low in the Western Bering Sea will
move to near Anadyr as a 957 MB low by 3pm Thu, then to 200 NM
west of Point Hope as a 985 MB low by 3pm Fri, then to 60 NM
northwest of Icy Cape as a 995 mb low by 3pm Sat.

$$

PKZ225-060430-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
830 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 50 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 23 ft. Snow and 
rain. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow with rain. Freezing
spray.   
.FRI...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog.  
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Fog, rain.  
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.   
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.   
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.   
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-060430-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
830 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
Freezing spray. Vsby 1NM or less.   
.TONIGHT...SE winds 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray. Vsby 1NM or less.   
.FRI...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Snow.  
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, snow.  
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.   
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.   
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.   
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-060430-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
830 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Snow showers. Heavy
freezing spray. Vsby 1NM or less.   
.TONIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy
freezing spray.   
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing fog. Snow.  
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Snow
showers. Freezing spray.   
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray.  
.SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.   
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.   
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-060430-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
830 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Freezing fog. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...SE winds 15 kt.   
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.  
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow showers.   
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog.   
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 20 kt.   
.SUN...E winds 30 kt.   
.MON...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-060430-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
830 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Freezing fog.   
.TONIGHT...S winds 15 kt.   
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.  
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Freezing fog. Snow showers.   
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.  
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.  
.SUN...E winds 30 kt.   
.MON...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

Nov 20

477 
FZAK51 PAFG 052231
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
131 PM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-061545-
131 PM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 956 mb low in the Western Bering Sea will move to 175 nm west of
Cape Lisburne at 989 mb Fri night, then to the northwest Arctic
coast near Wainright at 995 mb Sun morning. 

$$

PKZ225-061545-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
131 PM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Snow changing to rain. 
Heavy freezing spray in the evening.
.FRI...S winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Fog.
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Fog, rain.
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-061545-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
131 PM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... 
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing fog. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, snow.
.SAT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-061545-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
131 PM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.FRI...S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing fog. Snow
showers. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing fog. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-061545-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
131 PM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow showers. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 25 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-061545-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
131 PM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

.TONIGHT...SE winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Freezing fog. Snow showers. 
.SAT...SW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. 
.SUN...W winds 25 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt.  

$$

Nov 20

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
658 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm is impacting the West Coast and will eventually
move inland as it weakens. A front associated with a very deep
low center in the Western Bering Sea will be responsible for
snow, near blizzard conditions, rain mixed with snow, wind,
coastal impacts, and rising temperatures for the West Coast and
Western Interior. This system will eventually weaken, sending
moisture eastward, bringing the potential for significant snow and
a chance of freezing rain for the Interior and Eastern Interior
beginning tonight into Saturday. This will also raise our
temperatures considerably, especially where we have been the past
few days under an early season Arctic airmass.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels...
The deep Arctic Trough is eroding east and exiting the state. An
upper level ridge will push eastward from the coast, which will
aid in temperatures increasing towards the weekend. This will be
followed by an upper level low, the one responsible for impacts
along the coast today and eventually inland by the weekend.

Models in fairly decent agreement in the near-term. Sticking with
the ECMWF solution for the later part of the short-term due to
keeping the low a bit stronger as it tracks northeast.

Central and Eastern Interior...
The arctic airmass is modifying as temperatures aloft slowly
warm. Temperatures will rise dramatically tonight and Friday as
clouds and snow move into the area and the upper level trough
pushes to the east. A strong storm in the Bering Sea will push
deep moisture into the Interior forcing the moisture to rise up
over a deep arctic airmass today and Friday. This will set up the
potential for a significant snow event over the Central and
Eastern Interior beginning late this evening and continuing into
Saturday. Winter Storm headlines have been posted along a line
from Lake Minchumina NE to Fairbanks and north. Freezing rain
could possibly mix in with snow. Highway summits can expect near
blizzard conditions with blowing snow and reduced visibility
around one half mile or less. Strong gap winds will develop
through the Alaska Range passes this afternoon and into Friday as
a strong pressure gradient develops across the Alaska Range. The
Tanana Valley Jet will develop as well. The lack of upper level
support should keep the wind speeds under warning levels.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A major storm system over the Russian far east is pushing a
strong front across the Bering Sea. This strengthening system will
bring multiple impacts to the region during the next 48 hours.
This storm is expected to bring heavy snow, blizzard conditions,
and southerly gales to the region, and to the remainder of the
West Coast of Alaska through Friday. Snow will mix with rain today
and Friday in some coastal areas mainly south of the Bering
Strait. In addition, Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect for the
entire coastline from Cape Romanzof to Point Hope.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Light snow and breezy offshore conditions will continue today as
a weak front rotating around a low pressure system north of the
coast pushes east over the North Slope. The pressure gradient
will set up for southern gap winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts
around 40 mph through the Brooks Range Passes the next couple of
days. Coastal flooding possible Friday and Saturday from Utqiagvik
and west.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Coastal impacts from the storm will be on the decline heading
into Saturday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning for AKZ214.

Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ201-AKZ202.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ210-AKZ215-AKZ227.

Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

KS NOV 20