Gale Warning 102, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
658 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm is impacting the West Coast and will eventually
move inland as it weakens. A front associated with a very deep
low center in the Western Bering Sea will be responsible for
snow, near blizzard conditions, rain mixed with snow, wind,
coastal impacts, and rising temperatures for the West Coast and
Western Interior. This system will eventually weaken, sending
moisture eastward, bringing the potential for significant snow and
a chance of freezing rain for the Interior and Eastern Interior
beginning tonight into Saturday. This will also raise our
temperatures considerably, especially where we have been the past
few days under an early season Arctic airmass.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels...
The deep Arctic Trough is eroding east and exiting the state. An
upper level ridge will push eastward from the coast, which will
aid in temperatures increasing towards the weekend. This will be
followed by an upper level low, the one responsible for impacts
along the coast today and eventually inland by the weekend.

Models in fairly decent agreement in the near-term. Sticking with
the ECMWF solution for the later part of the short-term due to
keeping the low a bit stronger as it tracks northeast.

Central and Eastern Interior...
The arctic airmass is modifying as temperatures aloft slowly
warm. Temperatures will rise dramatically tonight and Friday as
clouds and snow move into the area and the upper level trough
pushes to the east. A strong storm in the Bering Sea will push
deep moisture into the Interior forcing the moisture to rise up
over a deep arctic airmass today and Friday. This will set up the
potential for a significant snow event over the Central and
Eastern Interior beginning late this evening and continuing into
Saturday. Winter Storm headlines have been posted along a line
from Lake Minchumina NE to Fairbanks and north. Freezing rain
could possibly mix in with snow. Highway summits can expect near
blizzard conditions with blowing snow and reduced visibility
around one half mile or less. Strong gap winds will develop
through the Alaska Range passes this afternoon and into Friday as
a strong pressure gradient develops across the Alaska Range. The
Tanana Valley Jet will develop as well. The lack of upper level
support should keep the wind speeds under warning levels.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A major storm system over the Russian far east is pushing a
strong front across the Bering Sea. This strengthening system will
bring multiple impacts to the region during the next 48 hours.
This storm is expected to bring heavy snow, blizzard conditions,
and southerly gales to the region, and to the remainder of the
West Coast of Alaska through Friday. Snow will mix with rain today
and Friday in some coastal areas mainly south of the Bering
Strait. In addition, Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect for the
entire coastline from Cape Romanzof to Point Hope.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Light snow and breezy offshore conditions will continue today as
a weak front rotating around a low pressure system north of the
coast pushes east over the North Slope. The pressure gradient
will set up for southern gap winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts
around 40 mph through the Brooks Range Passes the next couple of
days. Coastal flooding possible Friday and Saturday from Utqiagvik
and west.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Coastal impacts from the storm will be on the decline heading
into Saturday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning for AKZ214.

Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ201-AKZ202.

Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ210-AKZ215-AKZ227.

Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

KS NOV 20

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