Storm Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

129 
FZAK51 PAFG 131334
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
534 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-140230-
534 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 986 mb low 200 nm northeast of Wrangel Island will track into
the northern Beaufort Sea through Saturday. High pressure will  
build into the Chukchi Sea Saturday.

$$

PKZ225-140230-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
534 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...S winds 20 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-140230-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
534 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW winds 55 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...SE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 25 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-140230-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
534 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW winds 50 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...S winds 10 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...W winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-140230-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
534 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...W winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 20 kt. Snow.
.MON...W winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-140230-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
534 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...W winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...W winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT...W winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...W winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN...W winds 25 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.MON...W winds 30 kt. 
.TUE...E winds 20 kt.  

$$

Mar 20

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
502 AM AKDT Thu Mar 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A powerful weather system will impact the northwest coast today
with very strong south winds and areas of potentially heavy snow.
Whiteout conditions are expected across a large swathe of the
coast north of the Bering Strait. A few areas could see damaging
winds gusting in excess of 70 mph. A second round of snow will
push into the west coast again Friday and move into the Interior
through Saturday. Unsettled weather will persist into next week as
temperatures become warm to above average for much of the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft 500 mb...
A high amplitude ridge extends northeast across the Andreanof
Islands into the Eastern Bering and Chukchi Seas. The ridge is
being forced to propagate east up and over a cutoff low centered
near 40N. Deep longwave troughing over Siberia and the Sea of
Okhotsk is forcing very strong southwesterly flow out of the north
Pacific and into the Chukchi Sea. This setup will facilitate the
high wind event expected across northwest Alaska later today into
Friday. As the ridge continues east, it will reinforce an omega
block currently in place over the central Pacific. By Saturday,
an abnormally strong omega block high with heights around 577 dam
will be centered in the northern Gulf of Alaska. Zonal flow is
expected across northern Alaska and will contain a series of
shortwaves, which will pump moisture into the Interior next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A strong front will approach the Chukchi Coast this morning,
bringing very strong southerly winds as well as snow and blowing
snow. Blizzard conditions are expected across much of the
immediate coast from Utqiagvik west, as well as the western Brooks
Range. Sustained winds of 40 to 60 mph are possible with gusts to
70 mph or greater at times. The strongest winds will generally be
felt from Kivalina north to Point Hope, Cape Lisburne, and Point
Lay. As such, Blizzard Warnings are in place for this region.
Strong winds and snow will push east along the coast this
afternoon Into Friday. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph are
expected to reach a far east as Deadhorse by late this evening,
then Kaktovik by early Friday. Passes in the eastern Brooks Range
will also be targets for hazardous winds up to 50 mph tonight
into Friday. Temperatures will be increasing as the warm front
tracks across the Interior. Above average temperatures can be
expected this weekend as unsettled weather remains across the
region.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Low clouds and snow showers associated with a weak trough are
expected early this morning across much of the immediate coast.
The main weather system will follow quickly behind and will begin
with a rapid increase in south winds this morning. Winds have
already shown a marked increase along the Chukchi Coast from Red
Dog Port to Cape Lisburne. The strongest winds will generally
remain north and impact St. Lawrence Island, the western Seward
Peninsula, and the Chukchi Coast by this afternoon. Sustained
winds of 30 to 50 mph could gust to 70 mph or greater at times for
these areas tonight into early Friday. Strong winds with
associated blowing snow will drive visibility to near zero at
times mainly north of the Bering Strait. As such, a slew of
Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect. Areas
of the coast from Nome south can expect winds 25 to 40 mph with
gusts to 50 mph at times late Thursday into Friday. Precipitation
through Friday morning will be confined mainly north of the Bering
Strait with the greatest snowfall totals expected in the western
Brooks Range and Selawik Valley. However, by Friday afternoon, the
front will tap into moisture associated with a cutoff low in the
north central Pacific. This will send a second surge of moisture
northward, delivering hefty snowfall amounts to much of the
remainder of the coast late Friday, as well as the western
Interior by early Saturday. Significant snowfall is expected,
particularly across the southern Seward Peninsula and again across
the western Brooks Range and Selawik Valley. Turnaround time
between active and expected hazards will be tight, so as winds die
down, expect updates to the forecast to include hazard statements
for the incoming heavy snow.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A weak shortwave is bringing cloudy skies and areas of light snow
to the eastern interior this morning but is expected to clear out
by the afternoon. A strong warm front will sweep across the
Interior Friday, instigating a much warmer pattern for this
weekend into next week with the possibility of above freezing
daytime temps late weekend into next week. Gusty winds up to 40
mph can be expected over areas of higher elevation Friday. A few
snow showers can be expected Saturday into Sunday mainly north of
Fairbanks, though high pressure is expected to build across the
Interior early next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Strong south winds are ramping up this morning along the West
Coast, particularly north of the Bering Strait. Water levels
along the coast will rise 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide
line and may inundate some low lying areas, and will be pushed up
on top of the ice around open leads. While winds will not be as
strong near Nome, the lack of extensive shorefast ice does present
an opportunity for an ice shove given the long fetch of southerly
winds, although probability remains low at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-AKZ206-
AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ214-AKZ217.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Storm Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

COWMAN MAR 20