Gale Warning 28, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
329 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

Cold arctic high pressure remains entrenched over the Central and
Eastern Interior as well as the North Slope with another night of
cold temperatures on tap. Westerly winds over the West Coast has
brought in a lower cloud deck with areas of light snow and fog.
Attention will quickly turn to a powerful storm force warm front
which will impact the West Coast and North Slope with strong
winds, snow, and blowing snow Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Upper Levels...

The arctic trough which deposited a final shot of very cold arctic
air across the region has now moved eastward into the Yukon. Broad
northwest flow aloft is dominating the region now, along with
slowly building upper level heights and warming in the low levels.
Along the West Coast, extensive low stratus and some spotty snow
showers remains as weak upper level waves pass over the region and
continue to support the weak onshore flow. The next shortwave
trough in line can be seen passing over Gambell Island on
satellite, and this feature will reach the West Coast this
evening.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

A strong front will approach the Chukchi Coast Thursday, bringing
very strong southerly winds as well as snow and blowing snow.
Blizzard conditions appear likely for much of the immediate coast
from Utqiagvik west, as well as the western Brooks Range.
Sustained winds of 40 to 60 mph are possible with gusts to 70 mph
or greater at times. The strongest winds will generally be felt
from Kivalina north to Point Hope, Cape Lisburne, and Point Lay.
Winds 30 to 50 mph are possible as far north as Utqiagvik late
Thursday. As such, Winter Storm Warnings are in place for this
region. Expect strong southwest winds to spread west along the
coast Friday. Passes in the eastern Brooks Range will also be
targets for hazardous winds Friday. Temperatures will be
increasing as the warm front tracks east across the Interior.
Above average temperatures can be expected this weekend as
unsettled weather remains across the region.

West Coast and Western Interior...

Areas of low clouds and light snow showers are expected tonight
as another weak low moves into the West Coast. Attention then
quickly turns to a rapidly developing storm force warm front
Thursday morning as south winds begin to increase across the
coast Thursday morning. The strongest winds will generally remain
farther north and impact St. Lawrence Island, the western Seward
Peninsula, and the Chukchi Coast. Sustained winds of 30 to 50 mph
could gust to 70 mph or greater at times for these areas. This
combined with snow and blowing snow has prompted Winter Storm
Warnings for these areas. Areas of the coast from Nome south can
expect winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph at times late
Thursday into Friday. Precipitation through Friday morning will be
confined mainly north of the Bering Strait. However, by Friday
afternoon, the front will tap into moisture associated with a
cutoff low in the north central Pacific, This will send a surge of
moisture northward, affecting much of the remainder of the coast
late Friday, as well as the Interior by early Saturday with a shot
of accumulating snow.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Temperatures will remain colder than normal tonight, though the
arrival of cloud cover late this evening will help keep lower
elevation areas from reaching as cold of temperatures as the
previous night. A strong warm front will sweep across the
Interior Friday, instigating a much warmer pattern for this
weekend into next week with the possibility of above freezing
daytime temps late weekend into next week. Gusty winds up to 40
mph can be expected over areas of higher elevation Friday. A few
snow showers can be expected Saturday, though high pressure is
expected to build across the Interior Sunday into early next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A Strong weather system is expected to impact the northwest coast
beginning Thursday. Winds will increase significantly Wednesday
night and Thursday and persist into Friday afternoon before
diminishing. Water levels along the coast will rise 2 to 4 feet
above the normal high tide line and may inundate some low lying
areas, and will be pushed up on top of the ice around open leads.

With the very strong winds there is the threat of an ice push
near Nome, but the probability remains low at this time.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...The extended forecast is a
problematic one as the global numerical guidance is in poor
agreement with the general breakdown of the upper level ridge. It
does seem that "background" upper level ridging will be the
default state as shortwave troughs move over the top of the ridge.
The pattern looks active as these features moving over the top of
the ridge will bring precipitation chances to wide swaths of
Northern Alaska. Temperatures will also be warming to near if not
above average, which may include some above freezing temps across
parts of the region.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Public...
Winter Weather Advisory AKZ211 AKZ214.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ204.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ201, AKZ202-AKZ204, AKZ205-AKZ207,
AKZ209-AKZ210, AKZ213.

Marine...
Gale Warning for 200 210 215 235.
Storm Warning for 220 225 230.

&&

Ahsenmacher/Cowman MAR 20