Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

797 
WWAK63 PAFG 180544
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
944 PM AKDT Wed Jun 17 2020

AKZ223-226-180645-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-200618T0600Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-Eastern Alaska Range-
944 PM AKDT Wed Jun 17 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

South winds remain strong but humidity values are increasing as 
temperatures fall.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
657 AM AKDT Wed Jun 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Highlights are:
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue over
much of Northern Alaska today and Thu with the number of
thunderstorms and lightning strikes decreasing through Thu. Tue
had 1294 strikes, and today and Thu should have less than 1000.
Gap winds of 30g50 mph through Alaska Range Passes will cause
strong winds and near Red Flag conditions today from Donnelly Dome
to Delta Junction. An area of widespread showers along the Alcan
Border will move east this evening. A short wave trough moving
north over the SE Interior on Thu and Thu night will bring
increasing chance of showers to that area. Remnants of weather
front now over the Gulf of Alaska, will move north over the
Southern and Eastern Interior on Fri bringing widespread showers
and possibly 0.25-1.00 inch of rain to those areas on Fri and Fri
night.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists to a ridge over NW Canada and
the North Slope of Alaska with a trough over the Eastern Bering
Sea, Western Alaska, and the Gulf of Alaska. Several short waves
make their way north over the Interior and Alcan Border over the
next 2 days, and several short waves making their way south over
the West Coast Fri into this weekend will cause the trough to
progress east over Mainland Alaska by Fri, with the long wave
trough deepening over the weekend. This will keep Northern Alaska
in a pattern of Isolated to scattered showers with isolated PM
thunderstorms through Thu, with temps just above normal through
Thu. Expect scattered to numerous showers and temps at or below
normal Fri through the weekend.

A short wave trough from Ambler to Barter Island will weaken in
place through Thu. Scattered to widespread showers along this
trough will become scattered to isolated on Thu.

A second and weaker short wave trough that lies along the Alcan
Border now will move NE today. This is causing widespread showers
along the Alcan Border that will move east this evening. Could see
another 0.25 inch of rain in the Alcan Border area today.

A third and weak short wave trough that stretches from Ambler
to Delta Junction will move to Anaktuvuk Pass to Eagle by 4pm Wed
then continue NE and weaken. Isolated showers along this trough
now will change to isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.

A fourth short wave trough over SE Alaska will move north over
the SE Interior on Thu and Thu night will bring increasing chances
of showers to that area late Thu.

850 MB temperatures range from 8C to 10C across Northern Alaska.
See little change today, then cooling 2-4C Thu over the North
Slope and SW Alaska, then persisting like that into Fri. Expect
Surface temperatures today to be 2-5F warmer than Tue, with Thu
remaining about the same over the Interior, and slightly cooler
over the Coasts, and then all areas cooling a bit on Fri.

Surface...
High pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will move west on
Thu. This is causing Stratus and areas of fog along the Arctic
Coast and Capes of the West Coast that will thin this afternoon
then reform late tonight.

A thermal low pressure trough that lies from Eagle to Livengood
to Noatak will move to Old Crow to Bettles to Noatak by this
afternoon, then move over the South Slopes of the Brooks Range on
Thu, and persist there into Fri. A second trough from Livengood to
Bethel will move to Bettles to Bethel by this afternoon and then
weaken tonight. A moderately unstable airmass along these troughs
will allow scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the
troughs today and Thu. The number of thunderstorms and lightning
strikes will decrease through Thu. Tue had 1294 strikes, and today
and Thu should have less than 1000.

A ridge of high pressure over the Copper river Basin is combining
with the thermal trough to cause Southerly winds of 30g50 mph
through Alaska Range Passes now through this evening, then weaken
late tonight as the ridge weakens. This is causing a wind advisory
and near Red Flag conditions today from Donnelly Dome to Delta
Junction.

A weather front now over the Gulf of Alaska, will move north over
the Southern and Eastern Interior on Fri, bringing widespread
showers and wetting rain to most of the Eastern Interior on Fri
and Fri night. Could see 0.25-1.00 inch of rain Fri and Fri night
with this.

A cold front in the High Arctic will move south to lie along the
Arctic Coast of Alaska on Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 00Z, and show similar solutions
through 4pm Thu. After that time there is some difference between
models on speed and strength of short wave moving north over the
SE Interior on Thu night and Fri, and with the speed and strength
of a short wave moving south over the West Coast of Alaska Thu
night and Fri. On the short wave moving north over the SE
Interior, the NAM and GFS have a stronger short wave than the EMCF
and Canadian models. Give that there is a strong jet streak now
entering the long wave trough over the Gulf of Alaska to support
this feature, favor a blend of the GFS and NAM solutions on that
feature. On the West Coast feature Thu night and Fri, the NAM, GFS
and Canadian have similar locations, further west than the ECMF,
but the GFS is a bit deeper than the NAM and much deeper than the
Canadian and ECMF. Given that there is a strong system visible in
the High Arctic on Satellite, and that is will be dropping into a
long wave trough and likely deepening, favor the stronger GFS
solutions with this feature.

With Precipitation, models show similar areal coverage through
tonight, then the GFS and ECMF show a broader areal coverage over
the Interior for Thu into Fri. Models all miss precip now occuring
in the NE Interior. The NAM shows much heavier precip amounts Thu
night and Fri, which is partially due to its stronger short wave
trough. Favor using a blend of the NAM/GFS and ECMF for areal
precip coverage and precip amounts through Fri broaden out areas
covered by showers, but blend out some of the heavier amounts the
NAM shows Thu night Fri to account for uncertainty in the deeper
NAM short wave.

At the surface at 06Z, models verify well on all features around
Alaska. Models show similar solutions through 4am Thu, then the
NAM and GFS bring a stronger surface front north over the Interior
than the ECMF does. Given that the NAM and GFS appear to be doing
better with the short wave moving over the SE Interior Thu and
Fri favor those solutions at the surface as well. Given that the
NAM is deeper than any solutions, and that there is uncertainty
on the strength of the short wave and thus the surface feature,
favor the GFS which is more middle of the road at the surface
from Thu PM into Fri.

Bottom line for models is:
favor a blend of the ECMF/NAM/GFS for precipitation areal coverage
and amounts through Fri, but add precip for the NE Interior today
where it is already occuring. Will use a blend of the NAM and GFS
for temps through Fri. Will use a blend of the NAM and GFS for
winds through 4am Thu, then use the GFS along for winds Thu PM
into Fri.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A thermal low pressure trough that lies from Eagle to Livengood
to Noatak will move to Old Crow to Bettles to Noatak by this afternoon,
then move over the South Slopes of the Brooks Range on Thu, and persist
there into Fri. A second trough from Livengood to Bethel will move to
Bettles to Bethel by this afternoon and then weaken tonight.
A moderately unstable airmass along these troughs will allow scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms near the troughs today and Thu.
The number of thunderstorms and lightning strikes will decrease
through Thu. Tue had 1294 strikes, and today and Thu should have less
than 1000.

Southerly winds of 30g50 mph through Alaska Range Passes will cause
near Red Flag conditions today from Donnelly Dome to Delta
Junction today.

A weather front now over the Gulf of Alaska, will move north over
the Southern and Eastern Interior on Fri, bringing widespread
showers and wetting rain to most of the Eastern Interior on Fri
and Fri night.

Expect RH today to be less than on Tue, and Thu to be slightly drier
than today. Expect surface temperatures today to be 2-5F warmer than
Tue, with Thu remaining about the same as today, then cooling on Fri.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Between 0.25-0.50 inch of rain fell along the Alcan Border from
Eagle south on Tue, and expect another 0.25 inch today. This will
cause sharp rises on the Fortymile river today through Thu.
On Fri, 0.25-1.00 inch of rain is expected across the southern and
Eastern Interior Fri and Fri night, which will cause rises across
all rivers in those areas this weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ226.
&&

JB JUN 20