Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

131 
WWAK63 PAFG 110211
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
611 PM AKDT Sun May 10 2020


AKZ222-110600-
/O.NEW.PAFG.FW.A.0001.200511T2000Z-200512T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200511T0600Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
611 PM AKDT Sun May 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Fire
Weather Watch, which is in effect from Monday afternoon through
Monday evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...South of Fairbanks.

* TIMING...through 10 PM this evening.

* WINDS...East 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 18 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...45 to 78.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

A Fire Weather Watch means that weather conditions could lead to
the potential for a Red Flag event in the near future. This watch
will remain in effect until it is upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
or that it is determined that the Red Flag event will not
develop.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Fire Weather Watch.

&&

$$

AKZ223-110600-
/O.NEW.PAFG.FW.A.0001.200511T2000Z-200512T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200511T0600Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
611 PM AKDT Sun May 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Fire
Weather Watch, which is in effect from Monday afternoon through
Monday evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...Entire area.

* TIMING...until 10 PM this evening.

* WINDS...East 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 19 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...45 to 77.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

A Fire Weather Watch means that weather conditions could lead to
the potential for a Red Flag event in the near future. This watch
will remain in effect until it is upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
or that it is determined that the Red Flag event will not
develop.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Fire Weather Watch.

&&

$$

AKZ226-110600-
/O.NEW.PAFG.FW.A.0001.200511T2000Z-200512T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200511T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
611 PM AKDT Sun May 10 2020

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a Fire
Weather Watch, which is in effect from Monday afternoon through
Monday evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...from the Delta River to the Richardson Highway 
  North of Donnelly Dome.

* TIMING...until 10 PM this evening.

* WINDS...Southeast 5 to 10 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...34 to 70.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that conditions are occurring or will
occur which could lead to the development of large and dangerous
fires. It is directed toward fire agencies, and through them, to
the public.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

A Fire Weather Watch means that weather conditions could lead to
the potential for a Red Flag event in the near future. This watch
will remain in effect until it is upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
or that it is determined that the Red Flag event will not
develop.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Fire Weather Watch.

&&

$$

824 
WWAK63 PAFG 110530
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
930 PM AKDT Sun May 10 2020


AKZ226-111400-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200511T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.A.0001.200511T2000Z-200512T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
930 PM AKDT Sun May 10 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...
...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Monday
afternoon through Monday evening for the Eastern Alaska Range.

* AFFECTED AREA...from the Delta River to the Richardson Highway 
  North of Donnelly Dome.

* TIMING...Monday afternoon through Monday evening.

* WINDS...Southeast 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Around 75.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that weather conditions could lead to
the potential for a Red Flag event in the near future. This watch
will remain in effect until it is upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
or that it is determined that the Red Flag event will not
develop.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Fire Weather Watch.

&&

$$

AKZ222-111400-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200511T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.A.0001.200511T2000Z-200512T0600Z/
Middle Tanana Valley-
930 PM AKDT Sun May 10 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...
...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from Monday
afternoon through Monday evening for the Middle Tanana Valley.

* AFFECTED AREA...South of Fairbanks.

* TIMING...Monday afternoon through Monday evening.

* WINDS...East around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...75 to 80.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that weather conditions could lead to
the potential for a Red Flag event in the near future. This watch
will remain in effect until it is upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
or that it is determined that the Red Flag event will not
develop.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Fire Weather Watch.

&&

$$

AKZ223-111400-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200511T0600Z/
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.A.0001.200511T2000Z-200512T0600Z/
Deltana and Tanana Flats-
930 PM AKDT Sun May 10 2020

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...
...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS...

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning. A Fire WEather Watch remains in effect from Monday
afternoon through Monday evening for Deltana and Tanana Flats.

* AFFECTED AREA...Entire area.

* TIMING...Monday afternoon through Monday evening.

* WINDS...East 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...75 to 78.

* IMPACTS...Rapid ignition, growth and spread of fires will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that weather conditions could lead to
the potential for a Red Flag event in the near future. This watch
will remain in effect until it is upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
or that it is determined that the Red Flag event will not
develop.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Fire Weather Watch.

&&

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
417 AM AKDT Sun May 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The main story continues to be warmer than normal temperatures
across Northern Alaska through Tuesday, with near record highs
around the Interior through Monday. This will ramp up snow melt
in the higher terrain of the Interior, leading to high water
levels on most rivers and streams, and the potential for
flooding. Temperatures will begin to cool off on Tuesday,
and return to around normal by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 10/00Z GFS solution initialized around 200 meters
too weak on the 578 dam ridge over the Canadian Yukon, while the
NAM and ECMWF were around 100 meters too weak. At the surface,
solutions initialized fairly well at 10/06Z, but were a few mb too
weak on the 1057 mb high east of Yellowknife. In general, models
show similar solutions through Monday morning, but the GFS then
brings a stronger and faster moving shortwave over the North
Slope than other models. With the GFS initializing too weak on
the ridge over Canada, we will favor the NAM and ECMWF solutions
through Tuesday.

Aloft 500 mb...
The overall pattern through Monday consists of a strong ridge
over the Canadian Yukon and most of Northern Alaska, with a deep
trough extending from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska. By
late Monday and into Tuesday, the ridge will begin to weaken and
retreat southeast as it is pinched between a shortwave moving
from the Beaufort Sea to the North Slope, and a second shortwave
moving from the Gulf of Alaska into Southwest Alaska.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Fairly quiet weather expected today, aside from some areas of
stratus and fog along the Arctic Coast this morning. As high
pressure to the north begins to strengthen late tonight, easterly
winds will ramp up, becoming 20-30kts along the Arctic Coast by
Monday, and 25-35kts by Tuesday. This will also cause northerly
10-20 kt winds through the Brooks Range Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning. Stratus and fog is expected to develop in the
coastal areas both Monday night and Tuesday night.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Today and tomorrow high temperatures will be in the 60s to low
70s inland, and 40s to 50s along the coast. This will lead to
increasing snow melt, rising water levels, and the potential for
flooding, especially for areas that have not experienced breakup
yet. Rain and showers are expected for St. Lawrence Island and the
Lower Yukon Delta today, and then across most of the area late
Monday through Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
High temperatures will rise to near record levels today and
Monday, with widespread mid to upper 70s and a few places even
hitting the 80s! This will be short-lived, however, as high
temperatures are expected to cool back down to normal by the end
of the week. Skies will be mostly clear today and Monday, but
cloud cover will increase on Tuesday, bringing with it a chance of
light rain for areas south and west of a line from Delta Junction
to Fairbanks to Bettles. Rising water levels are expected over the
next several days with the increased snow melt from warm
temperatures, see the Hydrology section for details.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...No concerns at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Overall it will be pretty quiet through Tuesday. No thunderstorm
activity is expected at this time. Temperatures will be well above
normal today and tomorrow, before starting to cool on Tuesday.
Minimum relative humidities will generally be in the 20 to 30
percent range, with decent overnight recovery. Conditions may
briefly get near Red Flag at times around Delta Junction during
this afternoon with winds gusting to 25 mph. Winds in other areas
are expected to remain below 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Well above normal and near record high temperatures across the
Interior today and tomorrow will increase high elevation snowmelt,
leading to high water on rivers and streams through most of the
upcoming week. Flooding is likely on the Chena River upstream of
Moose Creek Dam, and on the Salcha River. Flooding is possible on
the Chatanika, Little Chena, and Goodpaster Rivers. The Chena
River downstream of Moose Creek Dam will start to rise to a high
level today, and remain high for most of the upcoming week. Low
areas along the Chena River, such as the Steamboat Landing
Subdivision, and bike paths under bridges in Fairbanks, will
likely see water on them starting today.

A Flood Watch is in effect for the Buckland River at Buckland due
to an ice jam that is causing water to rise there, and flooding
is possible until this jam releases. Other rivers in the Western
and Northwestern Interior including the Koyukuk and Kobuk Rivers
remain mostly ice covered, and could see ice jam flooding over the
next few days as melting increases.

The Yukon River has broken up in most areas upstream of Galena,
but some areas of ice are still remaining between the Yukon River
Bridge and Tanana. Ice remains in place downstream of Kaltag.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Advisory for the Chena River Upstream of the Moose Creek Dam.

Flood Advisory for the Salcha River.

Flood Watch for AKZ210-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

CULVER MAY 20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1220 PM AKDT Sun May 10 2020

AKZ208-210-216-217-120015-
Lower Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Northern and Interior Seward Peninsula-
Lower Koyukuk and Middle Yukon Valleys-
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-
Including Noatak, Kiana, Red Dog Mine, Buckland, Deering, Candle,
Council, Haycock, Pilgrim Springs, Serpentine Hot Springs,
Taylor, Galena, Nulato, Huslia, Kaltag, Ruby, Koyukuk, Ambler,
Shungnak, and Kobuk
1220 PM AKDT Sun May 10 2020

...Rising Water on Rivers Across the Western and Northwestern
Interior Through the Week...

Warm temperatures across the Western and Northwestern Interior
are causing rapid snow melt. This will cause water levels to rise
significantly in rivers across the Western And Northwestern
Interior this week, and cause break up to proceed rapidly in
rivers that remain ice covered.

On the Koyukuk River, the ice jammed at Bettles on Saturday but
no flooding occurred. The ice moved downstream of Bettles by
Sunday morning and the water level dropped. Ice jammed at
Allakaket Saturday night, and the water rose to several feet below
the bank. The the ice jam broke up at Allakaket and moved
downstream late Sunday morning, and the water level there dropped.
It is expected that the ice and high water will move downstream
to Hughes over the several days, and people in Hughes should be
alert for possible ice jams and rising water though Tuesday.

On the Kobuk River, ice remains in place in many locations. Ice
is expected to break up over the next week along the Kobuk River
along with rising water levels. People along the Kobuk River
should be alert for possible ice jams later this week.

The Buckland River had an ice jam near the village of Buckland on
Saturday. The river came out of its banks early Sunday morning
and caused minor flooding in Buckland. The jam broke Sunday
morning and moved downstream, and the water level dropped back
below bankfull. Due to the lack of ice upstream of the village of
Buckland, the threat of flooding there is over.

For the latest information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc

JB