Brisk Wind Advisory 150, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
417 AM AKDT Sun May 10 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The main story continues to be warmer than normal temperatures
across Northern Alaska through Tuesday, with near record highs
around the Interior through Monday. This will ramp up snow melt
in the higher terrain of the Interior, leading to high water
levels on most rivers and streams, and the potential for
flooding. Temperatures will begin to cool off on Tuesday,
and return to around normal by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 10/00Z GFS solution initialized around 200 meters
too weak on the 578 dam ridge over the Canadian Yukon, while the
NAM and ECMWF were around 100 meters too weak. At the surface,
solutions initialized fairly well at 10/06Z, but were a few mb too
weak on the 1057 mb high east of Yellowknife. In general, models
show similar solutions through Monday morning, but the GFS then
brings a stronger and faster moving shortwave over the North
Slope than other models. With the GFS initializing too weak on
the ridge over Canada, we will favor the NAM and ECMWF solutions
through Tuesday.

Aloft 500 mb...
The overall pattern through Monday consists of a strong ridge
over the Canadian Yukon and most of Northern Alaska, with a deep
trough extending from the Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska. By
late Monday and into Tuesday, the ridge will begin to weaken and
retreat southeast as it is pinched between a shortwave moving
from the Beaufort Sea to the North Slope, and a second shortwave
moving from the Gulf of Alaska into Southwest Alaska.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Fairly quiet weather expected today, aside from some areas of
stratus and fog along the Arctic Coast this morning. As high
pressure to the north begins to strengthen late tonight, easterly
winds will ramp up, becoming 20-30kts along the Arctic Coast by
Monday, and 25-35kts by Tuesday. This will also cause northerly
10-20 kt winds through the Brooks Range Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning. Stratus and fog is expected to develop in the
coastal areas both Monday night and Tuesday night.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Today and tomorrow high temperatures will be in the 60s to low
70s inland, and 40s to 50s along the coast. This will lead to
increasing snow melt, rising water levels, and the potential for
flooding, especially for areas that have not experienced breakup
yet. Rain and showers are expected for St. Lawrence Island and the
Lower Yukon Delta today, and then across most of the area late
Monday through Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
High temperatures will rise to near record levels today and
Monday, with widespread mid to upper 70s and a few places even
hitting the 80s! This will be short-lived, however, as high
temperatures are expected to cool back down to normal by the end
of the week. Skies will be mostly clear today and Monday, but
cloud cover will increase on Tuesday, bringing with it a chance of
light rain for areas south and west of a line from Delta Junction
to Fairbanks to Bettles. Rising water levels are expected over the
next several days with the increased snow melt from warm
temperatures, see the Hydrology section for details.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...No concerns at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Overall it will be pretty quiet through Tuesday. No thunderstorm
activity is expected at this time. Temperatures will be well above
normal today and tomorrow, before starting to cool on Tuesday.
Minimum relative humidities will generally be in the 20 to 30
percent range, with decent overnight recovery. Conditions may
briefly get near Red Flag at times around Delta Junction during
this afternoon with winds gusting to 25 mph. Winds in other areas
are expected to remain below 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Well above normal and near record high temperatures across the
Interior today and tomorrow will increase high elevation snowmelt,
leading to high water on rivers and streams through most of the
upcoming week. Flooding is likely on the Chena River upstream of
Moose Creek Dam, and on the Salcha River. Flooding is possible on
the Chatanika, Little Chena, and Goodpaster Rivers. The Chena
River downstream of Moose Creek Dam will start to rise to a high
level today, and remain high for most of the upcoming week. Low
areas along the Chena River, such as the Steamboat Landing
Subdivision, and bike paths under bridges in Fairbanks, will
likely see water on them starting today.

A Flood Watch is in effect for the Buckland River at Buckland due
to an ice jam that is causing water to rise there, and flooding
is possible until this jam releases. Other rivers in the Western
and Northwestern Interior including the Koyukuk and Kobuk Rivers
remain mostly ice covered, and could see ice jam flooding over the
next few days as melting increases.

The Yukon River has broken up in most areas upstream of Galena,
but some areas of ice are still remaining between the Yukon River
Bridge and Tanana. Ice remains in place downstream of Kaltag.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Advisory for the Chena River Upstream of the Moose Creek Dam.

Flood Advisory for the Salcha River.

Flood Watch for AKZ210-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

CULVER MAY 20