Brisk Wind Advisory 5, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
655 AM AKST Fri Jan 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Highlights are:
North winds 30 to 40 mph through the passes and over the south
slopes of the Brooks Range, and between Point Hope and the Bering
Strait, along with winds chills of 40 to 50 below and blowing and
drifting snow, will persist through early Sunday. Temperatures
near normal over most of Northern Alaska will drop through the
weekend to well below normal by next week.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep long wave trough
stretching from the Canadian Archipelago southwest across Alaska
and over the Gulf of Alaska, and a strong ridge stretching from
the the Western Bering north over NE Russia and into the Arctic
Ocean to the north. This pattern is expected to persist through
the weekend, then progress with the ridge pushing east over
mainland Alaska by the middle of next week. The long wave trough
will cause mostly cloudy conditions to persist through the
weekend over most of the area south of the Brooks Range, with near
normal temperatures falling below normal this weekend. There are
partly cloudy areas over all of Northern Alaska now, with much
colder temperatures developing in these areas. Can expect surface
temps of zero to 15 below in cloudy areas, and between 20 and 40
below in the clear areas. Due to clouds cycling through the long
wave trough, temperatures will be highly variable depending on
the changing cloud cover.

A short wave trough from Dawson north will move top Tok to Old
Crow by 3pm Fri, to Denali to Atigun Pass by 3am Sat, and then
dissipating. Expect low to mid level clouds and light snow or
flurries along this trough, with some clearing and cooling to the
east of the trough.

A second short wave moving over the southern Yukon Territory on
Sat and over the SE Interior Sat PM and Sun. Will see another
band of clouds and light snow or flurries with this trough.

Surface....
High pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will weaken
slowly through Sun. A low pressure trough in the high Arctic will
move south over the Western Arctic Coast of Alaska Sat PM and then
persist into Sun. This will bring stratus and flurries/fog to the
Western Arctic Coast on Sat/Sun.

A weather front stretching from the Yukon Delta to Eagle will move
to Nome to Old Crow by 3am Sat, to St Lawrence Island to Old Crow
by 3pm Sat, and then dissipate. Light snow and flurries will
persist along this front through Sat. This trough, combined with
the high pressure and cold air over the North Slope, are causing
north winds to 30 to 40 mph through Brooks Range Passes, along
south Slopes of the Brooks Range, that will persist through Sat
and then slowly decrease through Sun. These winds, combined with
cold temps are causing wind chills of 40-50 below in these areas
that will persist through 6am Sun. Can expect blowing snow through
passes in these areas through Sat night as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models Initialize well aloft at 00Z, and show similar solutions
through Sun. Some differences in moisture fields are present, and
leads us to believe that partly to mostly cloudy conditions will
be highly variable and difficult to forecast over Interior Alaska
through this weekend. On the precip fields, models are similar and
we will use a blend of the GFS, ECMF and NAM precip fields.

850 mb temperatures range from -15C over the the southern Interior
to -30 over the North Slopes of the Brooks Range and over the
Yukon Territory. Temperatures will change little along the West
Coast and Western Interior, but will cool to -25 to -30 over the
Eastern Interior by Sun.

At the surface, models verify well at 06Z, but the gradient over
the Northern Interior is slightly stronger than models indicate.
For this reason we will boost winds 3-5 kt over the Southern
Brooks Range from what models indicate and keeps these slightly
stronger winds through Sat night.

Bottom line is we will use a blend of models for precipitation and
clouds, and boost winds over the southern Brooks Range through Sat
night.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ218.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB JAN 20

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