Brisk Wind Advisory 39, NWS Fairbanks, AK

689 
FZAK52 PAFG 031242
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-040300-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
High pressure over the Brooks Range and Arctic Plain extends W 
over the Chukchi Sea to a 1028 mb high over Chukotka. A weather 
front over the Western Arctic will stall over the Northwest Arctic
Coast today. A 958 dam low is 150 nm SW of Adak, and a 973 mb low
is 150 nm S of St Matthew Island with a weather front extending 
NE over the Lower Yukon Delta this morning. The front will remain
stationary as the low near St Matthew moves W and dissipates, 
while the low in the Aleutians moves to 150 nm NW of Nikolski by 
Tue morning, and to Nunivak Island by Wed morning as it weakens to
984 mb. 

$$

PKZ200-040300-
Norton Sound-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 30 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Freezing fog. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-040300-
Dall Point to Wales-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NE winds 45 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TUE...N winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...N winds 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-040300-
Kotzebue Sound-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

.TODAY...N winds 15 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N winds 10 kt. 
.TUE...NW winds 10 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...NW winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...NW winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 5 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-040300-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
342 AM AKST Mon Feb 3 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N winds 30 kt. N winds to 35 kt near the Bering Strait. 
Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.TONIGHT...N winds 30 kt. N winds to 35 kt near the Bering 
Strait. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...N winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...N winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...S winds 10 kt.  

$$

SDB Feb 20

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
428 AM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

.Synopsis...Significant pattern change will bring warmer
temperatures to areas south of the Brooks Range as temperatures
will be rising through Tuesday, then cool slightly midweek before
warming more next weekend. Temperatures in the Arctic will remain
on the cold side with not much change through the week. A weather
front is bringing significant snowfall to the Lower Yukon Delta,
Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valleys today. Snow spreading
northeast in the Central Interior, mainly north of the Tanana
River, and into the Upper Yukon Flats today and tonight. Strong
gusty winds on St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Coast
today and tonight, with strong gusty winds developing across the
Alaska Range. The Tanana Valley Jet will develop late today with
winds gusting around 40 mph near Delta Junction tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 02/00Z solutions are in good agreement for the short
term, with minor discrepancies in locations of the major features
in the midrange. Surface solutions are in generally good
agreement as well though they do differ in the minor details quite
a bit. The low in the Western Aleutians initialized about 3 mb
weaker than the latest solution would have it be, while the high
over the interior initialized at the same strength. Winds along
the West Coast area initializing 3 to 5 kt stronger than the
solutions would have them, so will need to kick up the winds a
bit. Precipitation is pushing much further inland than what
solutions would indicate at this point, so will also need to make
some adjustments there as well. Will be using a blend of the
solutions, but as mentioned above, will need to make several
adjustments to match current conditions and differences in the
solutions that will need to be accounted for.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing over the AlCan Border will move
east this morning, while over the Arctic Coast troughing will
drag east as the 496 dam low 100 nm north of Deadhorse moves to
Banks Island by Monday morning. Ridging to the south over the
Brooks Range will strengthen as a ridge axis rotates over the
state tonight and heights across the area increase by 10 dam. A
second axis rotates over the state Monday night and heights will
start falling Tuesday morning. A 477 dam low near 82N 175W will
dig southeast to 400 nm north of Point Barrow by Monday morning,
and south to 300 nm north of Point Barrow by Tuesday morning at
480 dam. The low will dig southwest to 100 nm north of Wainwright
by Wednesday morning as ridging over the state weakens, and will
be over Point Hope by Thursday morning at 493 dam as ridging
persists to the southeast of the low. Troughing will persist over
the Bering Sea with a 498 low meandering around over the Kamchatka
Peninsula into mid week. At 850 hpa...Temperatures will be
warming across the area as the -20C isotherm is pushed north and
east and will lie along the southern flank of the Brooks Range by
Monday morning. The -10C isotherm will push northeast into the
forecast area and will lie from St Lawrence Island to Nenana, then
southwest along the Western Alaska Range by Monday morning.
Temperatures south of the Brooks Range will continue to slowly
warm as the -10C isotherm continues to push northeast to lie from
St Lawrence Island to Eagle. Over the Arctic a pool of cold air
will be pushing south over the Central Arctic. Wednesday morning
temperatures across the forecast area start cooling as the -10C
and -20C isotherms are pushed southeast.

Surface...High pressure is hanging on over Interior Alaska and
the Arctic Plain with a 1028 mb high over the Fortymile Country,
and a 1023 mb high over Umiat this morning. High pressure extends
south over the Western Gulf of Alaska, and west over the Chukchi
Sea to a 1039 mb high over Yakutia. A 1006 mb low over the
Southeast Panhandle will move southeast. A 984 mb low near 82N
175W will move southeast to 400 nm north of Point Barrow by Monday
morning and to 150 nm north of Wainwright by Tuesday morning as
it weakens to 1001 mb. A weather front associated with the low is
over the Western Arctic and will move to the Northwest Arctic
Coast Monday morning, then stalls over the Arctic Coast through
Tuesday as high pressure develops over the Arctic Plain. A 952 dam
low near Kiska will move to 200 nm southwest of Adak by Monday
morning at 962 mb as a 971 mb low develops along the weather front
north of Atka and moves to 150 nm northwest of the Pribilofs. The
front will lie from the low northeast into the Lower Yukon Delta.
The front will slide north Monday to lie from St Matthew Island to
Galena to Nenana as the low south of the Aleutians moves
northeast over Atka into the Bering Sea. Leeside troughing will
develop north of the Alaska Range today with strong gusty south
winds developing near Alaska Range Passes and the Tanana Valley
Jet developing near Delta Junction. By Tuesday the front will lie
from Old Crow YT to Gambell.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A cold front will be moving to the
Northwest Coast, but it looks dry at this time. Offshore flow over
the coast is bringing some of the coldest temperatures in quite a
while to some locations. Utqiagvik has been hanging around 36
below, Deadhorse 38 below, Nuiqsut 44 below, and Wainwright 42
below, most of the night and do not expect them to warm
significantly when Umiat has been hanging around 50 below and flow
will continue from the plains. Winds pick up around Utqiagvik to
around 15 mph with Wind Chill around 60 below expected, so will
issue a Warning that will be in effect into Monday morning. High
temperatures will only be 5 to 8 degrees warmer than the lows, and
expect the cold to hang on through most of the week even as the
winds turn from the west as a pool of cold air will be moving
southeast over the area.

West Coast and Western Interior...Strong storm is pushing into the
Bering Sea and a weather front is bringing snow to St Lawrence
Island, Lower Yukon Delta, Norton Sound Region, and Middle Yukon
this morning. Strong gusty winds are developing over the Bering
Sea and will move over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait
Coast today and persist into Tuesday. Winds gusting to 60 mph will
bring near Blizzard conditions to those areas. Gusty east winds to
40 mph will impact Eastern Norton Sound so expect visibility to be
impacted by blowing snow. Heavy snow is starting to fall in the
Lower Yukon Delta, and the southern Nulato Hills, and will spread
to the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valleys today. Winter
Storm Warnings are in place through Monday evening with Storm
total snowfall of 6 to 12 inches of snow expected. Temperatures
are warming and will continue to warm with the warmest
temperatures expected on the Lower Yukon Delta Coast midweek.

Central and Eastern Interior...Increasing clouds with increasing
chances of snow to the west of Manley Hot Springs and Bettles
today. Chances of snow increasing north of Delta Junction Monday
as the front pushes northeast over the Interior. Heaviest snowfall
will be north of a line from McGrath to Livengood to Chalkyitsik.
Temperatures will be on the rise across the area with highs
Tuesday above zero in the Tanana Valley and areas south. Strong
gusty south winds near Alaska Range Passes with blowing snow
reducing visibility. Winds will also pick up around Delta Junction
as the Tanana Valley Jet sets in with gusts around 40 mph through
Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A weather front will stall
across the state from Old Crow YT to the Lower Yukon Delta
midweek bringing light snow to most areas north of the Upper
Tanana Valley. A low moving along the front late in the week will
bring some enhancement snowfall to the Central and Eastern
Interior. A low moving north up the West Coast has the potential
to bring significant snowfall to much of the West Coast and
Western Interior next weekend. Temperatures will cool some late
in the week, then warm next weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ219-AKZ221.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ202.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200.

&&

SDB FEB 20