Storm Warning 43, NWS Anchorage, AK

186 
FZAK51 PAFC 201310
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-210200-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front in the central Gulf moves to the eastern Gulf Thu
afternoon. A 970 mb low over Bristol Bay moves over the Kenai
Peninsula at 977 mb Thu night and then moves inland. Weak low 
pressure remains over the northern Gulf through Fri night. 

$$

PKZ119-210200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-210200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-210200-
Resurrection Bay-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-210200-
Prince William Sound-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers and 
snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-210200-
Port Valdez-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-210200-
Valdez Narrows-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...N wind less than 10 kt becoming E wind 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-210200-
Valdez Arm-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-210200-
Passage Canal-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-210200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft. Snow with rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ131-210200-
Barren Islands East-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-210200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-210200-
Chiniak Bay-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ137-210200-
Marmot Bay-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ138-210200-
Shelikof Strait-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ139-210200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft building to
7 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ140-210200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon.  Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after
midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt.
.MON...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ141-210200-
Kachemak Bay-
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

933 
FZAK51 PAFC 210008
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-211330-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 973 mb low near the Barren Islands will move into Prince William
Sound late tonight. This low will then remain nearly stationary 
and slowly weaken to 1002 mb by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-211330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt becoming 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft. 
Rain with snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ120-211330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 15 
ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ121-211330-
Resurrection Bay-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-211330-
Prince William Sound-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-211330-
Port Valdez-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-211330-
Valdez Narrows-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-211330-
Valdez Arm-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-211330-
Passage Canal-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. 
Snow and rain.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-211330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ131-211330-
Barren Islands East-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6
feet building to 16 ft after midnight.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ132-211330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-211330-
Chiniak Bay-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ137-211330-
Marmot Bay-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ138-211330-
Shelikof Strait-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ139-211330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft building to 6
ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ140-211330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt after
midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Snow.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ141-211330-
Kachemak Bay-
308 PM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Freezing spray after midnight. 
Rain in the evening changing to snow.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 AM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A 980 mb vertically stacked low in the Gulf is lifting northward
over Prince William Sound. Ample moisture continues to spread in
over Southcentral. Satellite and radar imagery show convective
signatures, indicating cold air has wrapped around the backside of
this low and it lifts inland over Southcentral. Out west,
another low centered south of the western Aleutians is being
steered eastward by a 160 knot upper level jet. This upper level
jet is forcing the leading edge of the front to elongate as it
moves eastward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions are in good synoptic agreement through Friday.
There are some differences regarding strength and timing of the
low in the Bering as it moves eastward this week. While all models
seem to agree the surface low will arrive over Bristol Bay Wed
night, the NAM/EC shows a faster solution of the low moving inland while
the GFS/Canadian keeps the center slightly farther west.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...IFR conditions in snow are expected into the early morning
hours Wednesday. Conditions should improve to MVFR during the
late morning, and then to VFR in the early afternoon as the
snowfall diminishes then ends. LLWS will become a concern again by
early Thursday morning as midlevel southeasterly flow increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wed and
Thu)...
One storm system will move out and another one will immediately
replace it. Snow has continued overnight from the Kenai Peninsula
up through the Susitna Valley along a deformation boundary.
Meanwhile a closed low is moving up into western Prince William
Sound and pushing more moisture and instability over the Chugach
and Kenai Mountains. This low pushed some warmer air into parts
of the Prince William Sound and Mat Valley allowing for a brief
period of rain this morning. However, we are now expecting a
colder airmass to surge up the Cook Inlet and turn all of the
remaining precipitation back to snow this morning. This will be
the parting shot of snow for much of the area as this system winds
down. A suite of Winter Weather products remain in effect this
morning and we have extended a few into the afternoon to account
for this last burst of accumulation.

Another strong system will move towards the area tonight.
The most notable differences will be antecedent cold air and
strong downsloping for much of the Anchorage Bowl through the Mat
Valley. The cold air that settles in today should create some
blowing snow issues by late tonight in parts of the Portage Valley
and Turnagain Pass area as snow starts to fall. Another couple of
feet of snow will be possible for the higher terrain over Western
Prince William Sound with this system. Blowing snow will also be
a concern once again through Thompson Pass as heavy snow develops.
Southeast winds will again crank up across the Turnagain Arm.
However, due to the track of the low, the gradient should remain
strong enough down Cook Inlet to keep the strongest gusts away
from Anchorage and the Hillside. These winds and cross barrier
flow will also keep the area mostly dry initially. Moderate to
heavy snow is expected for the Western Susitna Valley once again,
but most of that looks to remain west of the Parks Highway.

As the low passes over the area, winds will die down and all
locations will become vulnerable to snow by late Thu into Fri.
The system will drift slowly off to the east and pull down another
blast of Arctic Air. This will create very gusty westerly winds
across portions of Shelikof Strait and eventually Southern Cook
Inlet. It is also a favorable pattern for long duration light snow
over many of the population centers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Southwesterly onshore flow and lingering snow showers continue
across Southwest Alaska this morning, which will taper off by late
morning. The next low approaches the region this afternoon, which
will help gusty winds and a shot of snow return to the greater
Bristol Bay area. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
blowing snow, mainly to areas north of King Salmon along the
coast. The greatest threat is to Dillingham and surrounding areas,
which could see visibility reduced to a half mile and a few
inches of new snow accumulation. The track of this low should
keep snow out of the Kuskokwim Delta, but will track northward
into the Kuskokwim Valley overnight and into Thursday morning.
Snow showers will continue over this region and over Bristol Bay
much of the day Thursday and even into Friday.

Temperatures will be on the downward trend over the next few days
as Arctic air moves into Southwest Alaska starting on Thursday.
This will bring temperatures below zero for the Kuskokwim Delta by
Thursday night, and temperatures into the teens for the rest of
Southwest by Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A strong gale-force low positioned near Adak this morning will be
the key weather maker across the Bering and Aleutians for the next
few days. As this low moves into Bristol Bay by Thursday morning,
winds switch to a north to northwest flow as strong cold air
advection quickly follows. There is better model agreement that
this low will bring strong winds along the eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula on Thursday, especially through gap areas.
Expect widespread snow showers and heavy freezing spray to persist
over the eastern Bering and Aleutians through this time. This
pattern could also bring potential blowing snow conditions for
Dutch Harbor and along the AKPEN for much of the day Thursday
before winds taper down Friday as the low exits the region.

By Friday morning, models are trying to spin up a compact low
over the western Aleutians, which could bring an area of small
craft winds. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in this
feature.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Fri through Sun)...
Friday night through Saturday night, Gale force west to northwest
winds are expected over the Gulf and south of the Alaska
Peninsula. A storm system moving into the western and central
Aleutians on Saturday will produce gale force winds, which will
slide into the eastern Aleutians on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Sat through Tue)...
On Saturday morning the pattern will consist of an upper level
trough over southwest Alaska extending southeastward into the Gulf
of Alaska. The trough will very slowly slide northeast across
southern Alaska through Sunday then exit into Canada Sunday night
as the main upper low retreats northward. A weak ridge will then
build over southern Alaska Sunday night, sliding eastward on
Monday. An upper level low just south of the western Aleutians on
Saturday will move eastward through Sunday, moving north into the
central Aleutians on Monday, then into the southern Bering Tuesday.
The exact path and timing of this feature is somewhat uncertain
at this time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning 101 145.
		 Winter Weather Advisory 111 121 161.
MARINE...Gales 119 120 125 130 131 132 150 155 160 165 170 172-177 351 352 413 414.
         Heavy freezing spray 160 179 180 185 411 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
949 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0949 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER NATURE CENT 61.24N 149.27W
02/19/2020  E22.5 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            SPOTTER REPORTED 22.5 INCHES OF SNOW.

&&

MV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1113 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     SNOW             7 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.24N 149.44W
02/19/2020  M9.2 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            9.2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM 6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 11 AM
            WEDNESDAY. STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY

&&

BLUDWIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1139 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     SNOW             7 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.24N 149.44W
02/19/2020  M11.2 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            11.2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM 6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 11 AM
            WEDNESDAY. STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.

&&

BLUDWIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1146 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     SNOW             8 MILES SSE OF EAGLE RI 61.32N 149.57W
02/19/2020  E8.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SPOTTER REPORTED 8.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

&&

MV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1148 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     SNOW             8 MILES SSE OF EAGLE RI 61.32N 149.57W
02/19/2020  E8.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM 8 MILES
            SSE OF EAGLE RIVER. SPOTTER REPORTED 8.5
            INCHES OF NEW SNOW. STORM TOTAL 11 INCHES.

&&

MV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1234 PM AKST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 AM     SNOW             SUTTON                  61.71N 148.89W
02/19/2020  E16.5 INCH       MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM SUTTON.
            SPOTTER REPORTED 15-18 INCHES OF SNOW.

&&

MV