Gale Warning 193, NWS Anchorage, AK

524 
FZAK52 PAFC 201250
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-210130-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 mb low over Bristol Bay moves inland Thu afternoon. A 980 
mb low develops 370 nm southwest of Adak Fri night.

$$

PKZ150-210130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. Heavy freezing 
spray along the coast.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ155-210130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ160-210130-
Bristol Bay-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-210130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ170-210130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-210130-
Unalaska Bay-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the
afternoon. Freezing spray. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray. Widespread snow showers.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-210130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ173-210130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-210130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ175-210130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-210130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ177-210130-
Adak to Kiska-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-210130-
Kiska to Attu-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-210130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-210130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-210130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 kt.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-210130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
350 AM AKST Thu Feb 20 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...N 20 kt 
W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 AM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A 980 mb vertically stacked low in the Gulf is lifting northward
over Prince William Sound. Ample moisture continues to spread in
over Southcentral. Satellite and radar imagery show convective
signatures, indicating cold air has wrapped around the backside of
this low and it lifts inland over Southcentral. Out west,
another low centered south of the western Aleutians is being
steered eastward by a 160 knot upper level jet. This upper level
jet is forcing the leading edge of the front to elongate as it
moves eastward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions are in good synoptic agreement through Friday.
There are some differences regarding strength and timing of the
low in the Bering as it moves eastward this week. While all models
seem to agree the surface low will arrive over Bristol Bay Wed
night, the NAM/EC shows a faster solution of the low moving inland while
the GFS/Canadian keeps the center slightly farther west.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...IFR conditions in snow are expected into the early morning
hours Wednesday. Conditions should improve to MVFR during the
late morning, and then to VFR in the early afternoon as the
snowfall diminishes then ends. LLWS will become a concern again by
early Thursday morning as midlevel southeasterly flow increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wed and
Thu)...
One storm system will move out and another one will immediately
replace it. Snow has continued overnight from the Kenai Peninsula
up through the Susitna Valley along a deformation boundary.
Meanwhile a closed low is moving up into western Prince William
Sound and pushing more moisture and instability over the Chugach
and Kenai Mountains. This low pushed some warmer air into parts
of the Prince William Sound and Mat Valley allowing for a brief
period of rain this morning. However, we are now expecting a
colder airmass to surge up the Cook Inlet and turn all of the
remaining precipitation back to snow this morning. This will be
the parting shot of snow for much of the area as this system winds
down. A suite of Winter Weather products remain in effect this
morning and we have extended a few into the afternoon to account
for this last burst of accumulation.

Another strong system will move towards the area tonight.
The most notable differences will be antecedent cold air and
strong downsloping for much of the Anchorage Bowl through the Mat
Valley. The cold air that settles in today should create some
blowing snow issues by late tonight in parts of the Portage Valley
and Turnagain Pass area as snow starts to fall. Another couple of
feet of snow will be possible for the higher terrain over Western
Prince William Sound with this system. Blowing snow will also be
a concern once again through Thompson Pass as heavy snow develops.
Southeast winds will again crank up across the Turnagain Arm.
However, due to the track of the low, the gradient should remain
strong enough down Cook Inlet to keep the strongest gusts away
from Anchorage and the Hillside. These winds and cross barrier
flow will also keep the area mostly dry initially. Moderate to
heavy snow is expected for the Western Susitna Valley once again,
but most of that looks to remain west of the Parks Highway.

As the low passes over the area, winds will die down and all
locations will become vulnerable to snow by late Thu into Fri.
The system will drift slowly off to the east and pull down another
blast of Arctic Air. This will create very gusty westerly winds
across portions of Shelikof Strait and eventually Southern Cook
Inlet. It is also a favorable pattern for long duration light snow
over many of the population centers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Southwesterly onshore flow and lingering snow showers continue
across Southwest Alaska this morning, which will taper off by late
morning. The next low approaches the region this afternoon, which
will help gusty winds and a shot of snow return to the greater
Bristol Bay area. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
blowing snow, mainly to areas north of King Salmon along the
coast. The greatest threat is to Dillingham and surrounding areas,
which could see visibility reduced to a half mile and a few
inches of new snow accumulation. The track of this low should
keep snow out of the Kuskokwim Delta, but will track northward
into the Kuskokwim Valley overnight and into Thursday morning.
Snow showers will continue over this region and over Bristol Bay
much of the day Thursday and even into Friday.

Temperatures will be on the downward trend over the next few days
as Arctic air moves into Southwest Alaska starting on Thursday.
This will bring temperatures below zero for the Kuskokwim Delta by
Thursday night, and temperatures into the teens for the rest of
Southwest by Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A strong gale-force low positioned near Adak this morning will be
the key weather maker across the Bering and Aleutians for the next
few days. As this low moves into Bristol Bay by Thursday morning,
winds switch to a north to northwest flow as strong cold air
advection quickly follows. There is better model agreement that
this low will bring strong winds along the eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula on Thursday, especially through gap areas.
Expect widespread snow showers and heavy freezing spray to persist
over the eastern Bering and Aleutians through this time. This
pattern could also bring potential blowing snow conditions for
Dutch Harbor and along the AKPEN for much of the day Thursday
before winds taper down Friday as the low exits the region.

By Friday morning, models are trying to spin up a compact low
over the western Aleutians, which could bring an area of small
craft winds. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in this
feature.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Fri through Sun)...
Friday night through Saturday night, Gale force west to northwest
winds are expected over the Gulf and south of the Alaska
Peninsula. A storm system moving into the western and central
Aleutians on Saturday will produce gale force winds, which will
slide into the eastern Aleutians on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Sat through Tue)...
On Saturday morning the pattern will consist of an upper level
trough over southwest Alaska extending southeastward into the Gulf
of Alaska. The trough will very slowly slide northeast across
southern Alaska through Sunday then exit into Canada Sunday night
as the main upper low retreats northward. A weak ridge will then
build over southern Alaska Sunday night, sliding eastward on
Monday. An upper level low just south of the western Aleutians on
Saturday will move eastward through Sunday, moving north into the
central Aleutians on Monday, then into the southern Bering Tuesday.
The exact path and timing of this feature is somewhat uncertain
at this time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning 101 145.
		 Winter Weather Advisory 111 121 161.
MARINE...Gales 119 120 125 130 131 132 150 155 160 165 170 172-177 351 352 413 414.
         Heavy freezing spray 160 179 180 185 411 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
949 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0949 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER NATURE CENT 61.24N 149.27W
02/19/2020  E22.5 INCH       ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            SPOTTER REPORTED 22.5 INCHES OF SNOW.

&&

MV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1113 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     SNOW             7 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.24N 149.44W
02/19/2020  M9.2 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            9.2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM 6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 11 AM
            WEDNESDAY. STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY

&&

BLUDWIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1139 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     SNOW             7 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.24N 149.44W
02/19/2020  M11.2 INCH                          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            11.2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM 6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 11 AM
            WEDNESDAY. STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.

&&

BLUDWIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1146 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     SNOW             8 MILES SSE OF EAGLE RI 61.32N 149.57W
02/19/2020  E8.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SPOTTER REPORTED 8.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

&&

MV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1148 AM AKST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     SNOW             8 MILES SSE OF EAGLE RI 61.32N 149.57W
02/19/2020  E8.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM 8 MILES
            SSE OF EAGLE RIVER. SPOTTER REPORTED 8.5
            INCHES OF NEW SNOW. STORM TOTAL 11 INCHES.

&&

MV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1234 PM AKST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 AM     SNOW             SUTTON                  61.71N 148.89W
02/19/2020  E16.5 INCH       MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM SUTTON.
            SPOTTER REPORTED 15-18 INCHES OF SNOW.

&&

MV