Storm Warning 25, NWS Anchorage, AK

056 
FZAK61 PAFC 240052
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 PM AKST Sun Feb 23 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-241430-
352 PM AKST Sun Feb 23 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 980 mb low near 51N 155W Mon afternoon will move to 56N 154W at
974 mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-241430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
352 PM AKST Sun Feb 23 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft building to 15 to
25 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 26 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ352-241430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
352 PM AKST Sun Feb 23 2020

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 25 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

655 
FZAK61 PAFC 241230
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
330 AM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-250130-
330 AM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 978 mb low near 51N 155W Mon afternoon will move to 54N 151W at
973 mb Tue morning then move to 57N 152W at 978 mb by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ351-250130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
330 AM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft building to 15 to
25 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 26 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-250130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
330 AM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 18 to 25 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

885 
FZAK61 PAFC 250039
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
339 PM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-251415-
339 PM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 976 mb low at 51N 155W moves to 59N 148W at 985 mb for Wed 
afternoon. Its front pushes over the North Gulf Coast through Wed 
afternoon. A 993 mb North Pacific low moves along this front to 
56N 140W by Wed afternoon.


$$

PKZ351-251415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
339 PM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft building to 15 to
27 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 27 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-251415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
339 PM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

106 
FZAK61 PAFC 251306
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
406 AM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-260215-
406 AM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 973 mb storm force low at 53N 153W moves to 56N 148W at 983 mb
by Wed morning then moves to 59N 146W at 991 mb by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ351-260215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
406 AM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 27 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-260215-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
406 AM AKST Tue Feb 25 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
545 PM AKST Sat Feb 22 2020

Corrected typo

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main upper level low remains over eastern Russia with two
troughs extending out of it over the forecast area. The first is
over the mainland part of Alaska with a second one over the
Western Bering Sea and interacting with the 250 mb jet stream
south of the Aleutians. This location is where the strong surface
low has intensified since yesterday. This low is at peak intensity
this afternoon as another surface low has developed southeast of
it. This new low is developing in the left exit region of the jet
and will become the main low we focus on the next few days.

A weak surface low near Prince William Sound is persisting with
cold air moving through the Aleutian Range and into Kodiak Island
and the Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The biggest issue with the models revolves around the front
entering the Gulf of Alaska from the south (and the movement of
the parent low south of Kodiak Island) Monday night into Tuesday.
From the 12Z models, the GFS, NAM, and even GEM are very similar
with the ECMWF notable farther west with the front and the low.
This placement of these features will have a large impact on the
weather in Kodiak. There is the potential for another significant
winter weather event with this system but it will be dependent on
the front's behavior.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR conditions in occasional light snow will persist into
this evening. Ceilings are expected to remain below 5000 ft until
late morning Sunday though visibilities are expected to remain
mostly VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A series of compact polar surface lows are spinning underneath an
upper-level trough continuing to slowly lift north and east
across the northern Gulf. The first of these surface lows is
positioned near Ninilchik, and has been producing widespread snow
showers across Cook Inlet. Locations around Kachemak Bay continue
to see the most persistent and heaviest snow showers. These are
aided by the gusty westerly flow along the backside of this
feature coupled with the continued advection of colder air. Near
a foot of new snow has been reported near Homer over the past 24
hours. These snow showers will continue through the overnight and
early morning hours from the Matanuska Valley south to Seldovia as
the low shifts easts and weakens while the developing northwest
flow brings an upslope flow across the Chugach and Kenai
Mountains.

The second surface low can be seen on satellite imagery just
beginning to spin up south of Seward this afternoon. As this
system moves east, it will help strengthen the pressure gradient
between it and a building ridge over interior Alaska. Given this
set up, strong northerly outflow winds along the coast and through
passes will develop quickly. Winds will quickly ramp up along the
eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince William Sound tonight,
peaking late tomorrow before slowly diminishing on Monday. For
the Valdez waterways, Thompson Pass, and Copper River Delta, winds
will increase early Sunday and remain quite strong through
Tuesday.

The third surface low is near Cordova, and is bringing snow
showers to Prince William Sound. This feature will weaken into an
open trough tonight before getting absorbed into the
aforementioned low. As these systems and the upper-level trough
move east, the northerly flow behind it will usher in colder and
drier air, with temperatures falling well below normal for the
next couple of days.

Late Monday night, a ridge centered over the interior begins to
shift east toward the Alcan border which keeps colder trends in
place for all of the southern mainland. Temperatures across the
Copper River Basin cool to around 20 degrees below zero. Gusty offshore
winds along the coasts continue through Tuesday as the dense cold
pool filters through channeled terrain. Gusty north winds are
also expected across the northern Parks Highway, Matanuska Valley
and Cook Inlet. The next front developing over the southern Gulf
Monday afternoon is expected to bring the next round of storm
force winds across the Gulf waters and Shelikof Strait Monday
night through Tuesday morning. Gusty conditions taper down Tuesday
afternoon, except they will persist near the low center with
small craft to gale force winds just southeast of Kodiak Island
Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation along the front will start as
snow then change over to rain as a warmer air mass moves across
the southern waters. Kodiak Island may experience a prolonged
period of snow Monday night through late Tuesday evening as the
frontal occlusion sets up along the western waters. Added blowing
snow conditions during this time as strong gusty winds persist out
of the east to northeast direction and snow amounts up to five
inches. Snow could change over to rain Tuesday afternoon for
Kodiak Island; however, there is still high uncertainty with this
event.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Quiet conditions are expected over the next few days as an upper
ridge and subsequent surface high pressure builds over the
region. Areas of fog are possible Sunday morning. Clear skies will
also lead to cooler temperatures. As usual, interior portions of
the Kuskokwim Delta will be the coldest, with highs in the upper
single digits and lows in the minus 10s. Cloud cover will
gradually increase over Bristol Bay on Tuesday as a front
approaches from the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Scattered rain/snow showers will continue across the Aleutians,
generally west of and including Unalaska through Tuesday along a
series of fronts. Gusty easterly winds are expected on the Pacific
side of the central Aleutians on Sunday. A second, stronger front
will track south of the Alaska Peninsula Monday afternoon into
Tuesday, likewise bringing gusty easterly winds to that region.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

A low tracking north into the Gulf Tue will continue to bring
widespread gales along the northern Gulf Coast and south of the
AKPEN, with areas of storm force winds in Shelikof Strait and east
of Kodiak Island. Meanwhile, expect widespread small craft advisory
level conditions over the Bering Sea with broad easterly flow under
high pressure. The Gulf low will weaken Wed. Depending on the low
track, a barrier jet could develop and bring easterly gales Wed.
Winds will decrease and seas will subside Wed into Thu over the
Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A weakening low in the Gulf will continue to bring precipitation
along the North Gulf Coast Wed, then gradually exit to the eastern
Gulf Thu. Farther north, expect persistent mostly dry weather,
though clouds streaming in from the Gulf should make for mostly cloudy
skies over Southcentral Wed and Thu. Thu into Sat, a
strengthening Arctic high will bring colder than normal conditions
and clear skies. Looking farther west, expect mostly dry, colder
than normal weather through Fri over the Southwest mainland. A
series of compact lows will track across the Aleutians, bringing
periods of unsettled weather. A strong low will move into the
western Bering Sat.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130 172
	     Gale Warning 121 127 128 131 132 138 155 165 170 171 173 174
			          176 177
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 127 130 138 139 150 160 165 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM