Gale Warning 127, NWS Anchorage, AK

188 
FZAK62 PAFC 240018
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
318 PM AKST Sun Feb 23 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-241545-
318 PM AKST Sun Feb 23 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 mb low near 49N 168W will weaken rapidly as it drifts
eastward and dissipates Mon night. A 983 mb low near 47N 166E will
move to 50N 173E at 980 mb Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-241545-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
318 PM AKST Sun Feb 23 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-241545-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
318 PM AKST Sun Feb 23 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-241545-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
318 PM AKST Sun Feb 23 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-241545-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
318 PM AKST Sun Feb 23 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 to 10 ft.
Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8
ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.

$$

953 
FZAK62 PAFC 241226
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 AM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-250145-
326 AM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A weakening 981 mb low at 48N 169W Mon morning will dissipate by 
early Tue morning. A strengthening front associated with a 978 mb
North Pacific low will impact the eastern Aleutians and Western 
Alaska Peninsula beginning Mon afternoon and then weaken by Tue 
evening.

$$

PKZ411-250145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 AM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-250145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 AM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-250145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 AM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-250145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 AM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Freezing spray 
north of 56N.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray 
north of 56N.
.TUE...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray
north of 56N.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 0 to 5 ft.

$$

830 
FZAK62 PAFC 250006
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-251445-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 976 mb low at 49N 167E moves to 54N 178W at 989 mb for Wed
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ412-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-251445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
306 PM AKST Mon Feb 24 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 0 to 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
545 PM AKST Sat Feb 22 2020

Corrected typo

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The main upper level low remains over eastern Russia with two
troughs extending out of it over the forecast area. The first is
over the mainland part of Alaska with a second one over the
Western Bering Sea and interacting with the 250 mb jet stream
south of the Aleutians. This location is where the strong surface
low has intensified since yesterday. This low is at peak intensity
this afternoon as another surface low has developed southeast of
it. This new low is developing in the left exit region of the jet
and will become the main low we focus on the next few days.

A weak surface low near Prince William Sound is persisting with
cold air moving through the Aleutian Range and into Kodiak Island
and the Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The biggest issue with the models revolves around the front
entering the Gulf of Alaska from the south (and the movement of
the parent low south of Kodiak Island) Monday night into Tuesday.
From the 12Z models, the GFS, NAM, and even GEM are very similar
with the ECMWF notable farther west with the front and the low.
This placement of these features will have a large impact on the
weather in Kodiak. There is the potential for another significant
winter weather event with this system but it will be dependent on
the front's behavior.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR conditions in occasional light snow will persist into
this evening. Ceilings are expected to remain below 5000 ft until
late morning Sunday though visibilities are expected to remain
mostly VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A series of compact polar surface lows are spinning underneath an
upper-level trough continuing to slowly lift north and east
across the northern Gulf. The first of these surface lows is
positioned near Ninilchik, and has been producing widespread snow
showers across Cook Inlet. Locations around Kachemak Bay continue
to see the most persistent and heaviest snow showers. These are
aided by the gusty westerly flow along the backside of this
feature coupled with the continued advection of colder air. Near
a foot of new snow has been reported near Homer over the past 24
hours. These snow showers will continue through the overnight and
early morning hours from the Matanuska Valley south to Seldovia as
the low shifts easts and weakens while the developing northwest
flow brings an upslope flow across the Chugach and Kenai
Mountains.

The second surface low can be seen on satellite imagery just
beginning to spin up south of Seward this afternoon. As this
system moves east, it will help strengthen the pressure gradient
between it and a building ridge over interior Alaska. Given this
set up, strong northerly outflow winds along the coast and through
passes will develop quickly. Winds will quickly ramp up along the
eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince William Sound tonight,
peaking late tomorrow before slowly diminishing on Monday. For
the Valdez waterways, Thompson Pass, and Copper River Delta, winds
will increase early Sunday and remain quite strong through
Tuesday.

The third surface low is near Cordova, and is bringing snow
showers to Prince William Sound. This feature will weaken into an
open trough tonight before getting absorbed into the
aforementioned low. As these systems and the upper-level trough
move east, the northerly flow behind it will usher in colder and
drier air, with temperatures falling well below normal for the
next couple of days.

Late Monday night, a ridge centered over the interior begins to
shift east toward the Alcan border which keeps colder trends in
place for all of the southern mainland. Temperatures across the
Copper River Basin cool to around 20 degrees below zero. Gusty offshore
winds along the coasts continue through Tuesday as the dense cold
pool filters through channeled terrain. Gusty north winds are
also expected across the northern Parks Highway, Matanuska Valley
and Cook Inlet. The next front developing over the southern Gulf
Monday afternoon is expected to bring the next round of storm
force winds across the Gulf waters and Shelikof Strait Monday
night through Tuesday morning. Gusty conditions taper down Tuesday
afternoon, except they will persist near the low center with
small craft to gale force winds just southeast of Kodiak Island
Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation along the front will start as
snow then change over to rain as a warmer air mass moves across
the southern waters. Kodiak Island may experience a prolonged
period of snow Monday night through late Tuesday evening as the
frontal occlusion sets up along the western waters. Added blowing
snow conditions during this time as strong gusty winds persist out
of the east to northeast direction and snow amounts up to five
inches. Snow could change over to rain Tuesday afternoon for
Kodiak Island; however, there is still high uncertainty with this
event.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Quiet conditions are expected over the next few days as an upper
ridge and subsequent surface high pressure builds over the
region. Areas of fog are possible Sunday morning. Clear skies will
also lead to cooler temperatures. As usual, interior portions of
the Kuskokwim Delta will be the coldest, with highs in the upper
single digits and lows in the minus 10s. Cloud cover will
gradually increase over Bristol Bay on Tuesday as a front
approaches from the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Scattered rain/snow showers will continue across the Aleutians,
generally west of and including Unalaska through Tuesday along a
series of fronts. Gusty easterly winds are expected on the Pacific
side of the central Aleutians on Sunday. A second, stronger front
will track south of the Alaska Peninsula Monday afternoon into
Tuesday, likewise bringing gusty easterly winds to that region.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

A low tracking north into the Gulf Tue will continue to bring
widespread gales along the northern Gulf Coast and south of the
AKPEN, with areas of storm force winds in Shelikof Strait and east
of Kodiak Island. Meanwhile, expect widespread small craft advisory
level conditions over the Bering Sea with broad easterly flow under
high pressure. The Gulf low will weaken Wed. Depending on the low
track, a barrier jet could develop and bring easterly gales Wed.
Winds will decrease and seas will subside Wed into Thu over the
Bering Sea.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A weakening low in the Gulf will continue to bring precipitation
along the North Gulf Coast Wed, then gradually exit to the eastern
Gulf Thu. Farther north, expect persistent mostly dry weather,
though clouds streaming in from the Gulf should make for mostly cloudy
skies over Southcentral Wed and Thu. Thu into Sat, a
strengthening Arctic high will bring colder than normal conditions
and clear skies. Looking farther west, expect mostly dry, colder
than normal weather through Fri over the Southwest mainland. A
series of compact lows will track across the Aleutians, bringing
periods of unsettled weather. A strong low will move into the
western Bering Sat.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130 172
	     Gale Warning 121 127 128 131 132 138 155 165 170 171 173 174
			          176 177
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 127 130 138 139 150 160 165 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM