Storm Warning 224, NWS Anchorage, AK

742 
FZAK52 PAFC 171224
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-180130-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 mb low at 210 nm southwest of Saint George Island moves 
through the eastern Bering to near 80 nm east of Saint George
Island at 976 mb Sat morning. A second 976 mb low at 330 nm west
of Shemya moves to 140 nm north of Shemya at 986 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ150-180130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt S of Chirikof Island, and N of Chirikof 
Island, NW wind 20 kt becoming W wind 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ155-180130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ160-180130-
Bristol Bay-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ165-180130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight, Seas
7 ft building to 14 ft after midnight. From Port Moller E, S wind
15 kt, Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-180130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. From
Unalaska E, S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-180130-
Unalaska Bay-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-180130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ173-180130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-180130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt early increasing to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft
building to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ175-180130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-180130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt early increasing to 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ177-180130-
Adak to Kiska-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-180130-
Kiska to Attu-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ179-180130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ180-180130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.

$$

PKZ181-180130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-180130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

226 
FZAK52 PAFC 172344
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-181315-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 972 mb low 130 nm southwest of Saint Paul moves to 70 nm
southeast of Saint Paul at 973 mb by Fri afternoon and then moves
to 70 nm west of Port Heiden at 978 mb by Sat afternoon. A 
complex 982 mb low 240 nm northwest of Shemya Fri afternoon moves
to 190 nm northwest of Sheyma at 988 mb by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-181315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ155-181315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, W wind
25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ160-181315-
Bristol Bay-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-181315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt except S 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
12 ft except 5 ft from Port Moller E.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt except SW 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 12
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt except S 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 
14 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-181315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-181315-
Unalaska Bay-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-181315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ173-181315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-181315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ175-181315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-181315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ177-181315-
Adak to Kiska-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-181315-
Kiska to Attu-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ179-181315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-181315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-181315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-181315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
244 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level trough from the last couple days is still making
its way northeastward across the Kenai Peninsula and the Alaska
Range, while the upper level ridge remains northeast of Mat-Su
Valley this morning. Cold air advection west of the trough fills
much of Southwest Alaska, with much colder air aloft upstream and
over Southcentral. Steady light snow persists over much of
Southcentral, but conditions should be improving as the trough
continues to lift farther inland today. Over at Southwest Alaska,
both freezing fog and steady light snow continues mostly along
the coastal area. High-level clouds and increased moisture from a
developing upper level system south of the Aleutians will continue
to pass through the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

GFS, NAM and ECM are pretty consistent tracking synoptic features
for the short-term. GEM/Reg begins to steer off-track a bit from
the rest of the solutions by Thursday morning. By Friday afternoon,
the other three models start to differ with the placement of
synoptic large scale features approaching both the Gulf and AKPEN
through Friday night. Overall, GFS maintains to be a better solution
for this forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The heaviest portion of snow is currently making its way
over the terminal. There is a clear back edge moving up Cook
Inlet. As this moves through over the next few hours, expect
fairly rapid improvement. There is an outside chance for some low
stratus and/or fog to form behind it. Cigs are expected to remain
MVFR through the day with light flow allowing moisture to linger.
As flow turns to come out of the north later tonight, this should
bring drying and allow conditions to return to VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Wednesday through Friday)...

Snow is continuing this morning in much of the Mat-Su Valleys
along and ahead of the axis of a potent, negatively tilted
shortwave as it works its way eastward. The passage of the wave
will mark an abrupt end to the snow from southwest to northeast
later this morning across the western Chugach slopes and the
Anchorage Bowl. The trough axis will also end ongoing snow over
the Copper River Basin slightly later as it sweeps past during
this afternoon and evening. A few areas of lingering low stratus
or patchy fog may linger or form in/around the northern Cook Inlet
and Knik/Turnagain Arms after the snow ends. This would mainly
result from residual moisture left behind the departing system in
the valleys before colder and drier northerly flow increases at
the low levels and likely helps to clear things out by late
tonight.

A second system will enter the picture from Wednesday night to
early Friday as a deep surface low tracks to the south of Kodiak
and then across the central Gulf. The models continue to struggle
with the exact track and strength of this system. Some of the
details of the forecast, especially for Kodiak and Thompson Pass,
will hinge on precisely where the storm ends up. Winds will
increase around the low as it tracks into offshore waters with at
least small craft to low end gales likely across much of the Gulf
as the low tracks eastward on Thursday into early Friday. With
colder air building in over the Copper River Basin by this time,
and with the low aiding the pressure gradient near the Gulf coast,
outflow winds should pick up substantially on Thursday and
Friday. The strongest winds will be mainly through Thompson Pass,
the Valdez Arm and Copper River Delta. Periods of blowing snow are
quite possible in these areas by Thursday evening into early
Friday, but remain highly dependent on the exact track of the
surface low. Additionally, Kodiak City may experience a mix of
rain and snow as the low passes just to the south. A transition
from mainly rain to snow may occur on Thursday afternoon, perhaps
with a quick inch or so of accumulation in town before precip ends
on Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Friday)...

An upper level ridge combined with weak surface winds are leading
to patchy freezing fog across portions of Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Delta. There remains uncertainty on the track of a low
moving near Kodiak Island late tonight into early Thursday. In any
case, light snow is expected to overspread the Bristol Bay
region, possibly leading to a few inches of accumulation in the
Dillingham area. Precipitation may shift slightly northward over
the Kuskokwim Delta by Thursday evening, though any accumulations
there would be minimal. Periods of reduced visibility due to
blowing snow are also possible as gusty northeasterly winds will
persist through the day. Scattered snow showers will remain
possible through Friday along the Kuskokwim Delta coast ahead of a
low centered near the Pribilofs. Areas inland and to the south
look to remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Friday)...

A strong, compact low will move across the western Aleutians
today bringing gusty winds and moderate precipitation. Farther
east, a weak upper ridge will lead to benign conditions today
before the aforementioned low's front will quickly track west to
east across the Aleutians on Thursday. While uncertainty exists
into the end of the week, scattered rain/snow showers look to
continue with steadier precipitation near the low centers.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Friday through Sunday)...

Gulf of Alaska: There is a very good agreement that a gale force
low will impact the Gulf on Friday. Most of the gale force wind
activity is expected to be on the southern side of the low center.
Model guidance spreads out after this with the possibility for
relatively benign conditions across the Gulf whereas the other
models are showing at least small craft westerlies across the Gulf
Saturday through Sunday which is currently what we are leaning
towards. There is potential for these to be gale force as well
but there is still uncertainty for this.

Bering Sea: For Friday and Saturday, generally benign conditions
are expected across the Bering with winds below 30 kts and seas
less than 15 feet with some rather small compact lows. The big
weather maker is a rather large gale force storm system that is
expected to impact the Bering Saturday evening through the day
Sunday which all model guidance agrees on. As a result of the
winds, waves (greater than 15 feet) will be on the increase as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)...

The weather pattern during the first half of the forecast time
period continues to show strong Arctic high pressure locked in
over the Interior of Alaska east to the Yukon Territory. The
subtropical jet continues to remain fairly active during this time
frame as well with multiple storms trying to move northeastward
and into the cold air that is locked in across the interior areas
of Alaska and the Yukon. Latest data suggests that coastal areas
of the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and Prince William
Sound area have the best chance to see any meaningful
precipitation during this timeframe. Some of the energy from these
systems may occasionally send some light snow into the Anchorage
area and across Southwest but this time frame looks to remain on
the colder side with temperatures averaging below normal. The
exact track and intensity of any of these systems in this time
frame continues to remain highly uncertain and will become more
clearer over the coming days.

Farther west, model guidance has since come into much better
agreement across the Bering and for Southwest Alaska for a rather
large low to impact the area. The details of this system remain
uncertain as this time but the threat is there for it bring a
decent amount of warmer air northward towards Southwest Alaska
Monday and Tuesday potentially creating precipitation type issues
for this time period. Stay tuned as we continue to hone in on the
details of this system in the coming days.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 119 130-131 173 175-177 413-414.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 180-181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CMB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS/MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...MV