Small Craft Advisory 976, NWS Anchorage, AK

086 
FZAK51 PAFC 180023
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-181400-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 972 mb low at 57N 148W moves inland near 60N 141W at 982 mb by
Fri afternoon. A 978 mb low at 53N 152W at Fri afternoon moves
into the northern Gulf at 976 mb by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-181400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ120-181400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ121-181400-
Resurrection Bay-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-181400-
Prince William Sound-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt this evening. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft this evening. Snow and rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-181400-
Port Valdez-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-181400-
Valdez Narrows-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-181400-
Valdez Arm-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-181400-
Passage Canal-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 30 kt near Whittier after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Snow.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-181400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 14 ft
subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ131-181400-
Barren Islands East-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.  and snow.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ132-181400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ136-181400-
Chiniak Bay-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain and snow.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Snow and rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ137-181400-
Marmot Bay-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ138-181400-
Shelikof Strait-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-181400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-181400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Freezing 
spray.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-181400-
Kachemak Bay-
323 PM AKST Thu Dec 17 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

533 
FZAK51 PAFC 181305
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-190200-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 972 mb low 35 nm south of Middleton Island moves inland west of
Yakutat Fri afternoon. A 977 mb low 250 nm southeast of Sitkinak
Fri afternoon moves to 250 mb southeast of Middleton Island by Sat
morning then moves inland near Yakutat at 983 mb by Sun morning. 

$$

PKZ119-190200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ120-190200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt becoming W. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ121-190200-
Resurrection Bay-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
40 kt near Seward in the morning. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-190200-
Prince William Sound-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-190200-
Port Valdez-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-190200-
Valdez Narrows-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-190200-
Valdez Arm-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-190200-
Passage Canal-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier in the morning. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-190200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-190200-
Barren Islands East-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ132-190200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ136-190200-
Chiniak Bay-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-190200-
Marmot Bay-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-190200-
Shelikof Strait-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-190200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-190200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-190200-
Kachemak Bay-
405 AM AKST Fri Dec 18 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 PM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level shortwave stretched across the northeastern Gulf
coast will continue to lift to the northeast. Farther west, a
broad upper level trough extends over the western Bering with
multiple upper level lows in place. A North Pacific low is visible
on satellite imagery centered south of the Alaska Peninsula and
gradually tracking toward the northeast. High level cloud cover is
already spreading across the northern Gulf with this low. Low
level stratus and patchy fog has spread across much of Southwest
Alaska as well as Southcentral in the wake of the departing
overnight snowfall.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions are struggling to resolve the exact track of a
surface low located south of the Alaska Peninsula as it moves
northeastward into the Gulf through Thursday night. While the
differences in track are small, there could be big differences in
the forecast, especially with regard to precipitation type for
Kodiak Island as the low passes overhead through Thursday.
Meanwhile out west, NAM/GFS has fallen into agreement regarding
the strength and track of a storm force low over the central
Aleutians. Later in the week, models seem to have a good handle on
a broad complex low across the Bering through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Low level stratus in the wake of exiting precip will likely keep
cigs MVFR-IFR through tonight. Improving conditions expected
Thursday with northerly flow helping to clear out lingering
moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Wednesday through Friday)...

Low stratus or patchy fog is expected to linger around Anchorage,
the northern Cook Inlet and Knik/Turnagain Arms through tomorrow
morning. This is the result of residual moisture left behind the
departing system in valley locations. Colder and drier northerly
flow will increase at the low levels and should help to clear
things out Thu morning.

Close monitoring continues for the low moving northeast towards
Kodiak Island this afternoon. Models continue to struggle with the
exact strength and track of this low which will determine smaller
scale details including precipitation type for Kodiak Island and
the potential for blowing snow through Thompson Pass. For now, the
GFS was favored, with some of the Canadian models and the EC lending
credibility to this solution. Temperatures look to remain cold to
start for Kodiak tonight, with snow or a wintry mix being the
precipitation type to start. Warming associated with the passage
of the low will change this over to rain tomorrow morning, before
changing back over to snow or a wintry mix tomorrow evening. All
in all, expect precipitation type to vary from tonight through
tomorrow night for Kodiak City. Outflow winds will increase in
strength due to the tightening pressure gradient as the low
approaches the north Gulf coast, and a strengthening temperature
gradient, as cold air accumulates in the Copper River Basin and
warm air approaches with this low. We have issued a Winter Storm
Watch in effect from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for
blowing snow in Thompson Pass. Wind gusts could reach 50 mph with
visibility dropping to a quarter mile or less at times.

After this, the NAM and GFS are trying to spin up the possibility
of another low forming south of Kodiak Island, and taking a
similar track as the one preceding it. This solution was not there
yesterday, and confidence does not accompany it at this time. We
will continue to monitor the potential formation of this low with
future forecast updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Model solutions place a low near Kodiak further south today than
yesterday, therefore, precipitation for today should be confined
to the AKPEN in the form of light snow. A couple of weak upper-
level shortwaves move southwest to northeast across the Southwest
Mainland bringing the chance for some light snow into Bristol Bay
and the Kuskokwim Valley Thursday and Friday. Periods of patchy
freezing fog may linger across the Mainland through tonight,
especially across the Kuskokwim Valley. Meanwhile, a strong low
is tracking eastward across the Southern Bering through Saturday
morning until it reaches the Bristol Bay coast. As it reaches the
coast, expect light snowfall along the Southwest Coast beginning
Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A strong low moves eastward across the Southern Bering towards
Bristol Bay through Saturday morning. Areas of gales south of the
low will track across the Aleutian coasts as this system pushes
east. Additionally, a band of storm force winds are expected to
pass over Adak on Thursday. Widespread light precipitation will
impact the Bering and Aleutian Chain as the low passes. This will
mostly be a rain/snow mix or all snow, with periods of rain south
of the Chain tonight. Model agreement for this system has
increased since yesterday, with all models taking an easterly
track just north of the Aleutian Chain. Discrepancy lies in the
speed of the system, with the GFS/NAM tracking it faster. GFS has
been the most consistent, thus, a GFS/NAM solution was used.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Saturday through Monday)...

Gulf of Alaska

There is moderate confidence that low pressure will persist over
the Prince William Sound through the forecast period. Model
discrepancies remain in regards to the strength of the westerly
winds to the south of the low center. Small craft to low end gales
are possible. There is high confidence a front will reach the
western Gulf on Monday with small craft to gale force winds
likely.

Bering Sea:

Generally benign conditions are expected throughout the Bering on
Saturday. On Sunday a broad, strong and complex low with multiple
centers is expected to move into the western Bering. Areas of gale
force winds are possible near the individual low centers Sunday
and Monday; however, confidence in the exact location of the
stronger winds is low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...

A west to east pattern change of warmer and wetter weather appears
to take place on Sunday as a broad and strong low pressure system
moves into the western Bering. Ridging along the storms front is
expected to bring much warmer temperatures and rain to areas of
the Aleutian Chain and Southwest Alaska through Monday. The finer
details of the forecast are messy due to the complex and broad
nature of the front and the low itself. Guidance indicates the
presence of many small low pressure systems and which one will
become dominant over time will be a forecast challenge. For
Southcentral, weather appears to be quiet through Monday morning
other than a few areas of snow near the coast. Guidance then
agrees that broad southerly flow will take hold of the region
through Wednesday. Generally speaking this pattern would mean rain
for lower elevations of coastal areas with snow likely inland and
over high terrain. The details of the rain/snow line is highly
uncertain at this time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WSW 131.
MARINE...Storms 175 177. Gales 119 120 130 170-174 176 352 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
MARINE/LONG TERM...CJ