Storm Warning 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

686 
FZAK51 PAFC 181201
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-190130-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

Easterly flow continues through Sunday afternoon North of a 
series of North Pacific lows. A weak front moves across the 
Northern Gulf and dissipates Sat afternoon. A 979 mb North 
Pacific low moves to 120 nm South of Middleton Island at 986 mb 
Sun afternoon. Its front tracks over the Eastern Gulf through Sun
afternoon and dissipates Mon morning.

$$

PKZ119-190130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-190130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-190130-
Resurrection Bay-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-190130-
Prince William Sound-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-190130-
Port Valdez-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-190130-
Valdez Narrows-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-190130-
Valdez Arm-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-190130-
Passage Canal-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the
afternoon. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier in the evening. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-190130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-190130-
Barren Islands East-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-190130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt except E 40 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas
20 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-190130-
Chiniak Bay-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-190130-
Marmot Bay-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-190130-
Shelikof Strait-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
17 ft subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-190130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ140-190130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt.
.WED...N wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-190130-
Kachemak Bay-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

755 
FZAK51 PAFC 190030
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-191300-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

Easterly flow continues across the Gulf through Mon afternoon due
to a series of North Pacific lows. A 981 mb low 335 nm Southwest of 
Port Alexander moves to 35 nm South of Seward at 994 mb by Mon 
afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-191300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River 
Delta this evening. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray near the coast. Snow.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt in the morning increasing to 40 kt. Freezing
spray along the coast in the morning. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-191300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.  Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-191300-
Resurrection Bay-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Snow.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-191300-
Prince William Sound-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of Valdez Arm. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt in the morning increasing to 25 kt. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-191300-
Port Valdez-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-191300-
Valdez Narrows-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-191300-
Valdez Arm-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-191300-
Passage Canal-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier in the evening. Seas 2 ft. 
Freezing spray in the evening.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-191300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-191300-
Barren Islands East-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-191300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-191300-
Chiniak Bay-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 7 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-191300-
Marmot Bay-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-191300-
Shelikof Strait-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 7 ft 
in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-191300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ140-191300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-191300-
Kachemak Bay-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt diminishing to 10 kt
late. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
451 PM AKST Fri Jan 17 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level ridge is closed off and centered over the Arctic
coast, but stretching southward over most of Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska. The upper level low is elongated south of the
Gulf of Alaska to the Alaska Peninsula. This pattern is keeping
mostly clear skies over the mainland part of the forecast area
with persistent easterly flow over the Gulf of Alaska. The
easterly flow over the Gulf is continuing to bring snow showers
to Kodiak Island. In the southeast Gulf of Alaska, satellite shows
a small but strong low developing which will move to Kodiak
Island after midnight tonight. This low is the source of the
Winter Storm Warning that is in effect for Kodiak Island overnight
tonight into Saturday.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
As was the case yesterday, models remain in good agreement
overall for the next few days with the western Gulf of Alaska the
only region to really discuss. The easterly flow across the Gulf
is ripe for the development of small, but strong lows to cross it
and reach Kodiak Island. The one that is expected to reach Kodiak
overnight into tomorrow is stronger on the past few NAM runs than
GFS, but the satellite imagery showing it in the southeast Gulf
late this morning shows a stronger low. However, the slightly
farther north track of the GFS is better aligned with the
satellite data than the NAM. Therefore neither model is the
'model of choice'; rather, prefer a blend of the solutions
showing the farther north track with a stronger core.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3;
Tonight through Monday)...

A large upper-level ridge across the northern half of the state
will elongate as it lifts to the north and east tonight. As it
does, the flow aloft will become more east-southeasterly,
allowing for a westerly propagation of short-waves across the
northern Gulf. The first of these is currently lifting northwest
along the immediate Southcentral coast. At the surface, this is
reflected by an inverted trough stretching from Prince William
Sound to north of Kodiak Island. This feature is producing bands
of snow showers from south of Cordova across portions of the
eastern Kenai Peninsula and south to Kodiak City, with some heavy
in intensity as showers push west through the overnight hours.

The second short-wave is situated over the eastern Gulf helping
to spin up a surface low. This low is quickly deepening as seen by
the expanse of cooler cloud tops on the most recent IR satellite
imagery. The surface low maintains its strength as it tracks west
tonight, moving toward the southern half of Kodiak Island by
Saturday morning. Snow and gusty northeasterly winds will ramp up
in intensity over the Island around midnight with periods of
heavy snow expected for both the island and Kodiak City through
Saturday morning. Gusts around 40 mph coinciding with the falling
snow will act to significantly reduce visibility to near white-
out conditions at times. It is also possible that enough warmer,
marine air works in along the coast to provide for a brief
rain/snow mix before the precipitation ends Saturday afternoon.

Elsewhere across Southcentral, it will continue to remain mainly
clear and very cold across much of the region through Sunday. By
late Sunday, clouds will be on the increase and temperatures will
begin to moderate as another low in the eastern Gulf lifts north
and west. This system will track closer to the coast, with snow
likely developing across the Southcentral coast by Sunday,
continuing through Monday. Right now, there is still quite a bit
of uncertainty as to how much, if any, snow makes it over the
Chugach Mountains to fall over the Anchorage Bowl and western
Kenai Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Through Monday Morning)...

An upper level high will remain over interior Alaska keeping
temperatures cold and conditions mostly dry for much of southwest
Alaska. A series of easterly upper level waves will move ashore
early Saturday between Shelikof Strait and the western AKPEN
bringing some clouds and light snow to the area with minimal
accumulations. Temperatures are expected to moderate some across
the area with the introduction of precipitation and cloud cover.
A line of precipitation from the western AKPEN to the Kilbucks
will linger into Sunday, again bringing minimal snow accumulations
to the affected areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Through Monday Morning)...

A weakening front stretching from the northwestern Bering into
the central Aleutians will bring scattered snow showers to the
Pribilof Islands and the Aleutian chain through Monday morning.
As the front decays, expect more cold air to filter in behind
accompanied by more snow showers.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

The Gulf of Alaska continues to look fairly quiet into next week.
For Sunday into Monday a weak low pressure will create small
craft advisory winds along the north Gulf Coast with a barrier jet
there. Beyond that, weather calms. We are confident in this
forecast for the Gulf.

For the Bering Sea, guidance now indicates a compact low
traversing the Central Bering northwest to southeast. This low is
reflected in the forecast. Gale force winds are forecast on the
backside of this low. High pressure and quieting weather are
expected to move in behind it. There is moderate confidence in
this forecast as the low was not previously depicted by model
guidance. This means it will likely need to be adjusted in coming
days as model guidance gets a better handle on it.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

The long term forecast starts with weak low pressure in the Gulf
of Alaska, which will likely be producing snow in the Chugach.
Snowfall amounts and specific locations will be honed in the next
couple of days. This system decays Tuesday and becomes a nominal
factor in the weather. Out in the Bering, a compact low has been
identified by model guidance. This low will cross the Bering Sea
quickly and dissipate as it reaches the Southwest Coast on
Wednesday.

High pressure then builds in behind general low pressure for our
forecast area. A prominent upper level ridge looks to be oriented
southeast to northwest across the Alaska Peninsula into the
Bering. It will reflect as a surface high in the Bering Sea and
likely usher in more cold air for Southcentral AK. Right now the
Mat-Su is on the eastern (downstream and cold side) of the ridge,
so more cold air can be expected, but it will really depend on
where that border sets up and how much cloud cover we get. The
Copper River Basin has a shot to get some really cold air again,
as they will be on the eastern side of the ridge where cold air
will be pulled south from the arctic. Models are in agreement of
the ridge setting up, but differ on placement slightly. So cold
temperatures will depend on what resolves over the next several
days. With this not occurring until late next week, there is time
to get this figured out.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning 171.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 139 160 180.
         Gale Warning 120 130 131 132 137 138 139.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...LB
MARINE/LONG TERM...BB