Storm Warning 155, NWS Anchorage, AK

601 
FZAK51 PAFC 081838 AAB
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-090430-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 988 mb low forms Sun morning over the Shelikof Strait at 58N 
154W and moves to 60N 147W at 984 mb by Sun afternoon and then 
moves southeast towards the eastern Gulf Mon morning.

$$

PKZ119-090430-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt except SE 50 kt near the coast.  Seas
18 ft. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.  
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.  
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.  
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.  
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.  
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-090430-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.  
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.  
.MON...NW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
18 ft.  
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.  
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.  
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ121-090430-
Resurrection Bay-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2  ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.  
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.  
.MON...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7  ft.  
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-090430-
Prince William Sound-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight.  Seas
4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight.  
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.  
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-090430-
Port Valdez-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow mixing
with rain in the afternoon.  
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.  
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-090430-
Valdez Narrows-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-090430-
Valdez Arm-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.  
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-090430-
Passage Canal-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft.  Rain and snow.  
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 45 kt near Whittier after midnight. Seas 5 ft.  
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt near Whittier. Seas 5 ft.  
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-090430-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt becoming W 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10  ft.  
.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.  
.MON...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9  ft.  
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.  
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-090430-
Barren Islands East-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.  
.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.  
.MON...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon.  
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.  
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.  
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ132-090430-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.  
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.  
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.  
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.  
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.  
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ136-090430-
Chiniak Bay-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 35 kt in the afternoon.  Gusts
to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.  
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft.  
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.  
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-090430-
Marmot Bay-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon.  Gusts
to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.  
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 9 ft.  
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.  
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ138-090430-
Shelikof Strait-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 11 ft.  
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt in the evening.  Seas
11 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.  
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-090430-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Rain.  
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.  
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-090430-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
Rain.  
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.MON...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.  
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-090430-
Kachemak Bay-
938 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 35 kt. 
Seas 8 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt toward morning. 
Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.  
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

293 
FZAK51 PAFC 090046
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-091400-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK
INLET...

A 982 mb low over Knight Island in Prince William Sound moves to 
near Cape Spencer at 1022 mb and dissipates Tue afternoon. A front  
approaches the western Gulf for Tue afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-091400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt becoming NW 35 kt after midnight. Seas 21 
ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-091400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-091400-
Resurrection Bay-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt this evening increasing to 30 kt. Seas
building to 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-091400-
Prince William Sound-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt in the evening becoming NW. Seas 4 ft, Seas 
4 ft building to 6 ft after midnight.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-091400-
Port Valdez-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after
midnight. Gusts to 35 kt near Valdez after midnight. Seas 2 ft 
building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 
45 kt near Valdez in the morning diminishing to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-091400-
Valdez Narrows-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-091400-
Valdez Arm-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after 
midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-091400-
Passage Canal-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Gust to
45 kt near Whittier after midnight. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 
50 kt near Whittier diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 30 kt near Whittier in the morning. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-091400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 17
ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-091400-
Barren Islands East-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt this evening increasing to 60 kt. Seas 24 
ft.
.MON...NW wind 50 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft 
subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-091400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-091400-
Chiniak Bay-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts 
to 55 kt in the evening. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-091400-
Marmot Bay-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts 
up to 55 kt in the evening. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-091400-
Shelikof Strait-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 55 kt in the evening. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-091400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
.MON...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-091400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-091400-
Kachemak Bay-
346 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 13
ft subsiding to 8 ft after midnight.
.MON...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
532 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A negatively tilted upper level trough shows up well on satellite
extending from Southwest Alaska through the AKPEN. A minor
shortwave is moving across the southern Bering moving towards the
eastern Aleutians and AKPEN. A surface low has moved inland near
Dillingham with the front extending east towards the southern
Kenai Peninsula. Radar is showing a wide swath of precipitation
from Prince William Sound and west towards Anchorage and Kenai
area and across most of Southwest Alaska. Temperatures continue to
climb all over Southcentral with the upper 20s and 30s across
Anchorage and the MAT valley, and 30s across northern Kenai and
40s for the southern part of the Kenai. Temperatures across the
Copper River Basin have warmed to upper teens to 30s from Gulkana
southward. Most coastal locations are above freezing except
Valdez which is holding in the upper 20s. While Southwest Alaska
is in the low 30s across the Kuskokwim Delta and upper 30s to 40s
across the Bristol Bay region. Snow is occurring from just north
of Kenai up into Anchorage and the MAT- SU valleys, with a few
pockets of rain or mix where temperatures have gone above
freezing. Most coastal locations are rain except for Valdez which
is still reporting snow. Snow is also reported across the
Kuskokwim Delta and rain across the Bristol Bay area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are still in good agreement with the low moving into
southwestern Alaska with a developing triple point low in the
Shelikof Strait this morning. With this warmer track much of the
snow will change over to rain today as the warm air pushes north
into the Anchorage and MAT Valley.

Models remain in good agreement with another low moving through
the western to northern part of the Bering Sea Sunday through
Monday night. The next complex low that approaches the southern
Bering Sea by Tuesday is seeing considerable spread in model track
and strength which is causing increased uncertainty for the
Aleutians through southwest mainland Alaska for the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Transition from snow to rain is still expected this morning
with all rain likely at the terminal by the afternoon.
IFR ceilings with Intermittent IFR visibilities could continue
until the changeover occurs, after which expect visibility to
quickly become MVFR or better in the rain with ceilings remaining
IFR to MVFR. Additionally, winds will pick up from the south out
of the Turnagain Arm around the time of precip transition with
gusts up to 20 kts possible until the early evening when winds
decrease and become more westerly through Monday morning.

For this evening into early tonight, a few snow showers are
possible as colder air advects in from the west with occasional
IFR conditions not out of the question during any brief periods
of snow. Any snow showers will end late tonight, and ceilings
should lift to VFR as colder, drier air advects in from the west
early Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Monday Night)...

So far the storm is on track as forecasted. The snow changed over
to rain overnight along the Kenai Peninsula, and also changed over
in Palmer. A few reports of rain mixing in across portions of
Anchorage have also come in. The rain/snow line will continue
moving north and west across Anchorage and the rest of the Mat
Valley today, such that most everywhere should be all rain around
midday. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Susitna
Valley from Talkeetna north and west, with up to a foot and a half
of additional snow, mainly along the Alaska Range expected. The
Winter Weather Advisory for the Copper River Basin north of
Glennallen also remains in effect, with over a foot of snow
expected in the Paxson area and along the Denali Highway.
Temperatures have rapidly risen on strong southeasterly winds in
Glennallen, resulting in rain mixing in with the snow there, so
accumulations from Glennallen south and east will be very light,
if there are any at all. On the wind front, the High Wind Warning
verified on the Hillside this morning with gusts up to 90 mph
reported. Fortunately, those levels of gusts were relatively
isolated, with the average peak gust on the Hillside and Turnagain
Arm holding in the 60 to 65 mph range. As the center of the low
causing all of this wintry and windy weather moves into Prince
William Sound later this morning, that will cause the winds
through Turnagain Arm to rapidly diminish, then flip to a westerly
or northwesterly direction tonight.

After the sun sets tonight and the low begins to drift eastward
across Prince William Sound and into the northern Gulf, somewhat
cooler air will begin to move back into the Cook Inlet region.
This should allow any remaining precipitation to change back over
to snow. If any snow occurs at all, it will be brief in duration
and not last very long for most low elevation areas. However, with
northwesterly flow causing upslope along the Hillside, snow
showers will persist through midnight, which could result in
several inches of accumulation before ending. See the Special
Weather Statement for more details.

As an upper level wave moves across the area on Monday, the upper
level flow will enhance the strong outflow winds in Whittier and
Thompson Pass behind the departing low. Gusts to 60 mph are
possible in Whittier. For Thompson Pass, winds of similar
magnitude are expected out of the north starting late Sunday night
and continuing through the day on Monday. The snow falling now
through the Pass is falling on southeasterly winds. When the winds
flip to northerly on Monday, it is likely much of that snow will
redrift back over the Richardson Highway, causing hazardous travel
conditions. Elsewhere, much quieter conditions are expected for
the rest of Southcentral with some sunshine expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The much anticipated low is moving ashore into Southwest Alaska,
with the low center now on land northeast of Bristol Bay. Rain
has been falling in coastal areas, though coastal Southwest Alaska
in now on the backside of the low. Winds have switched to the
Northwest in the Kuskokwim Valley and cooled temperatures, with
rain switching to snow at Bethel overnight. This trend will
continue, however with most precipitation now inland, coastal
areas will not see much accumulation. Higher snowfall totals are
still expected inland and in the AK Range, where upslope flow will
help enhance snowfall.

Some brief clearing will occur overnight with a short wave ridge
moving in. However, low level cloud cover is still expected along
the coast with moist, on-shore flow continuing. Some fog may be
possible as well with recent precipitation falling.

Further analysis was done on the next low in regards to coastal
flooding. While its a bit early to completely rule it out, as of
now there will not be a fetch of winds strong enough and for long
enough duration to be of much concern. The storm just making
landfall looked more favorable for coastal flooding and did not
cause any impacts, so this is factored into reasoning as well. We
will certainly keep an eye on this situation though. While the
concern is low at this time, do stay tuned as a precaution.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The large low pressure system that has been progressing through
the Bering is currently moving ashore in Bristol Bay. Behind this
low in the Eastern Bering Sea are gale force winds. In the Central
Bering, there is a brief break in the weather with a short wave
ridge moving through. The next low in the series of lows is
already entering the Western Aleutians. It will take a
northwesterly track through the Central Bering, bringing largely
gale force winds, with a few areas of storm force winds. A third
low moves in Tuesday, keeping the pattern active. Although the
pattern is active, none of these lows are very powerful or will
stick around long enough to create any sustained impacts.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

A frontal system from the North Pacific will usher gales
southeast of Kodiak and offshore starting Tuesday night. As this
front moves east-northeast, the gales will be following closely
too along the frontal axis and west of the frontal boundary across
the Gulf through Wednesday morning. A long period fetch from
south of the Aleutians will approach the southwestern Gulf by late
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. This will generate
hazardous wave heights peaking to near 27 ft late Wednesday night.
Wave heights near the frontal boundary are expected to remain
near 12 to 15 ft with higher sets.

Bering Sea:

A couple of lows connected to a frontal boundary from the
Northwest Pacific will bring gales and storm force winds
across the Aleutians, central and eastern Bering starting
Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. One of the lows will
break away and trek eastward toward Bristol Bay on Wednesday
morning. Meanwhile, a parent low linked to the frontal zone
moves northward then curves south of Saint Lawrence Island before
descending southward Friday night. Dangerous wave heights between
25 to 35 feet with potentially higher sets will stay south of the
Aleutians and the central Bering through at least Wednesday
afternoon. Gales from the low over the eastern Bering
will gradually wane by Thursday night to small craft conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Synoptically, a broad longwave trough will exist from the
Kamchatka Peninsula to the west coast of Alaska with ridging over
the Gulf and Alaska mainland. The dominate feature to watch in the
first half of the forecast period is a negatively tilted trough
over the AKPEN on Wednesday. Given the broad southerly flow and
tropical moisture feed within the warm conveyor belt of the
system, warm temperatures and rain are expected over southern
Alaska on Tuesday and Wednesday. Snow is likely over Southwest
Alaska at elevations above approximately 3000 feet. For
Southcentral the rain/snow line will be a difficult forecast once
again do to when, where, and if a triple point low sets up in the
northern Gulf along the warm front. However, at this time lower
elevations along the Gulf coast will likely be rain due to little
cold air in place as the front moves in.

Over the Bering, strong cold air advection is expected out of
eastern Russia, which will be reinforced by a nearly stationary
low over the Bering Strait. Most models now show gale to storm
force winds over the central Aleutian Chain on Wednesday. On
Thursday the main shortwave trough mentioned earlier is expected
to move into the eastern Gulf, which should allow for clearer and
colder conditions over the southern mainland through Saturday.
Over the AKPEN, Bering, and Aleutian Chain, strong west to
northwest winds and rain are expected through Saturday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BJB
MARINE/LONG TERM...CB/CJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
453 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

AKZ101-111-082100-
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna,
Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
453 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING TODAY...

Snow occurring this morning in Anchorage will mix with rain this
morning, then change entirely over to rain by this afternoon.
Across the Matanuska Valley and far southern Susitna Valley, the
precipitation has already changed over to rain in eastern areas,
including Palmer and the Knik River Valley. Rain is mixing in
across Wasilla, and will change over entirely to rain later this
morning. For the far southern Susitna Valley, rain will mix in
later this morning and may change over entirely in some areas this
afternoon.

As the storm departs, there is a slight chance the rain may
change back over to snow before ending Sunday night at lower
elevations. Any accumulations will hold to 1 inch or less. At
higher elevations along the Hillside, upslope flow on westerly
winds will keep accumulating snow going well into Sunday night
once any rain changes back over to snow. An additional 2 to 4
inches of snow are possible Sunday night.

In the areas where the snow changes over to rain, icy conditions
are likely for several hours following the changeover as the rain
falls on frozen ground due to the recent cold temperatures. As
temperatures warm into the upper 30s to around 40 late this
morning into the afternoon, the icy conditions will improve.

The second impactful element with this strong storm is wind. The
High Wind Warning remains in effect until 9am this morning for
Turnagain Arm and higher elevations, where gusts to 90 mph have
been reported on the Hillside earlier this morning. Meanwhile
gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph with occasional gusts to 40 mph are
possible in the Matanuska Valley this morning. The winds
everywhere will rapidly diminish later this morning.

Please visit weather.gov/Anchorage for the latest forecasts for
your area and for any updates.

AKZ125-131-082100-
Western Prince William Sound-Northeast Prince William Sound-
Including the cities of Whittier, Seward, Girdwood, Moose Pass,
Valdez, and Thompson Pass
453 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2020

...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, LOW-ELEVATION RAIN, AND
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...

Periods of heavy snow associated with a strong storm system are
occurring in Turnagain and Thompson Passes this morning. Snowfall
amounts will be measured in feet at higher elevations by the time
the snow ends Sunday night. Gusty winds and warmer temperatures
have resulted in the snow changing over to rain at lower
elevations, including Portage Valley. Snow levels will rise to
around 1,500 feet later today, allowing rain to mix in to road
level through the Passes. Winds are gusting over 50 mph through
Portage Valley.

Areas of blowing snow combined with the falling snow will reduce
visibility in the windier areas through Thompson and Turnagain
Passes today where the precipitation remains all snow. Travelers
should expect rapid changes in visibility.

With the departure of the storm Sunday night into Monday, strong
westerly winds are expected in Whittier. Gusts to 60 mph are
possible during the day on Monday. Gusty winds through Thompson
Pass Monday may cause localized severe reductions in visibility
from blowing snow. This will be due to the large wind direction
shift from southeasterly now to northerly on Monday.

Please visit weather.gov/Anchorage for the latest forecasts for
your area.