Storm Warning 142, NWS Anchorage, AK

747 
FZAK62 PAFC 270021
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
321 PM AKST Thu Nov 26 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-271445-
321 PM AKST Thu Nov 26 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 mb low at 54N 175E moves to 53N 177W at 985 mb by Sat 
morning. A 966 mb low at 53N 171W moves to 55N 158W at 963 mb by 
Sat morning. 

$$

PKZ411-271445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
321 PM AKST Thu Nov 26 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming E 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...N wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft.  and rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-271445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
321 PM AKST Thu Nov 26 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-271445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
321 PM AKST Thu Nov 26 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow and 
widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow 
and rain showers.
.SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-271445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
321 PM AKST Thu Nov 26 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

672 
FZAK62 PAFC 271248
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-280230-
348 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 mb low at 53N 171W Fri morning moves to 55N 156W Sat 
morning. This low then moves into the Gulf. A second low at 55N 
177E at 966 mb Fri morning moves to 55N 179W at 985 mb Sat 
morning. This low then moves to 53N 164W at 995 mb Sunday morning. 


$$

PKZ411-280230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon south of
56N. NE wind at 25 kt north of 56N. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.  and rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-280230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt becoming 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-280230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow and widespread 
rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ414-280230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 AM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

518 
FZAK62 PAFC 280010
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-281415-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 964 low at 54N 165W moves to 59N 149W at 982 mb for Sun 
afternoon. A 975 mb low near 55N 180 moves to 51N 162W at 1001 mb
and its front dissipates Sun afternoon. A 989 mb North Pacific 
low and front moves to 48N 179W Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow showers and 
rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-281415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
310 PM AKST Fri Nov 27 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.

$$

600 
FZAK62 PAFC 281244
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-290145-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 mb low at 54N 157W Sat morning moves into the Gulf Sat
afternoon. A 987 mb low at 55N 175W Sat morning moves into the
north Pacific Sun morning. A 961 mb low 48N 173W Sun morning 
moves to 48N 169W at 960 mb Mon morning. 

$$

PKZ411-290145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt early diminishing to up to 20 kt. Seas 9
to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-290145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-290145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-290145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
344 AM AKST Sat Nov 28 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
511 PM AKST Wed Nov 25 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A high amplitude trough remains in place from eastern Russia to
mainland Alaska, anchored by a closed low over the far northwest
Bering Sea. A broad 100-150kt zonal jet streak extends along and
south of the Aleutian Islands. Arctic air continues to poor out of
Russia and across the Bering Sea and North Pacific. This pattern
has produced and will continue to produce fast moving deep storm
systems across the Alaska region.

The feature of most interest today is a negatively tilted short-
wave trough lifting northward across the southern Alaska mainland.
A triple point low (with estimated central pressure of 975mb) is
tracking northward up Cook Inlet, with an occluded front pushing
onshore of Southcentral. As of midday, this was leading to
widespread strong winds, with storm force winds along the north
Gulf coast and Prince William Sound, and hurricane force wind
gusts in Turnagain Arm and across the Kenai and Chugach Mountains.
Precipitation, heavy at times in the Prince William Sound region
is falling primarily as rain at/near sea level, with snow in the
mountains. However, colder air is advecting in behind the low and
front, causing precipitation over Southwest Alaska to change to
all snow.

Meanwhile, a series of weaker upper level short-waves are tracking
eastward across the Bering, Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula. With
cold air aloft and still warm sea surface temperatures, the
overall environment is fairly unstable. This is evident in the
cold cloud tops seen in IR Satellite imagery. As a result, there
are widespread rain and snow showers and gusty winds across the
region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
In general, the models continue to struggle with the exact track
and depth of deep lows over the next few days. They are grouped
together, but when you are focused on where the core of strongest
winds will track, it creates a challenge for honing in on potential
impacts. As far as handling of specific systems, models have come
into much better agreement with a deeper low crossing the Gulf
Thursday and moving into Prince William Sound Thursday night.
Thus, the wind and precipitation forecast will be overhauled to
reflect this common solution. Out west, there is a larger spread
with two lows tracking to the Aleutians on Thursday. The track
along the central Aleutians Thursday night will be key to whether
Adak and Atka experience hurricane force winds. After this
critical juncture, models are in good agreement as the system
continues eastward to the Gulf and Southcentral this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The early part of the TAF forecast is quite challenging.
Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will be in full force this
afternoon into evening. These winds will result in a jump up in
temperature, so that if any precipitation were to fall, it would
likely fall as rain or a rain/snow mix. At this point, low level
flow will still be fairly strong across the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains, so any precipitation that falls should be very light.
Winds will then shift around to S to SW as colder air moves in
this evening. Expect at least a brief period of light snow
between 06Z and 12Z to reduce ceiling/vis, though exact timing is
uncertain. Then expect rapidly improving conditions after 12Z,
along with diminishing southerly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Tonight through Saturday)...

Heavy periods of snow will pass through Matanuska Valley
especially over the Hatcher Pass this evening. Meanwhile, the rain
and snow will continue over much of the Prince William Sound as
cloud remnants from a weakening frontal zone treks inland and
northward tonight. The next active developing storm from the
southwestern Gulf of Alaska will bring another series of snow
showers over Kodiak on Thanksgiving morning, then across Prince
William Sound Thanksgiving Day and Thursday night. A shortwave
from the North Pacific will follow right behind the weakening
system on Thursday night, which could reinforce the potential for
a chance of snow Friday morning over Prince William Sound.

Another major developing storm from the Bering Sea will again
bring another series of snow over much of Southcentral Alaska.
This feature will impact the region with mix rain/snow between
Friday night and Saturday night, with strong winds up to 35 mph.
For now, will monitor the future development of this latter
system, so stay tuned for more updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Temperatures across much of the coastal areas, moving inland, have
begun to drop as cold air advection moves over the area from the
Bering Sea. This has transitioned rain to snow for much of the
region. Temperatures will continue to drop for the next few days,
with all precipitation staying as snow. Windy conditions have
started to taper off as the front has moved out of the area, and
calmer conditions should prevail after midnight.

Snow showers will continue Thursday morning into Friday with coastal
areas anticipated to receive the most snowfall. Friday afternoon,
a front associated with a strong low pressure system over the
central Aleutians will bring the next chances for snowfall to the
area. Limited confidence in model agreement on the initial
location of the low keeps the timing, placement and track of this
front uncertain. There is confidence, however, that snowfall will
occur south of Bethel, across Bristol Bay, the AKPEN and inland
areas nearby Friday afternoon through Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Westerly flow continues across the Bering this afternoon. This
will continue through tomorrow morning, until the next low
pressure system begins to move across the western Aleutians in the
afternoon. This is a strong system, bringing a large swath of
storm force winds across the Aleutian Chain with hurricane force
winds anticipated from Adak to Atka. A High Wind Watch remains in
effect from Adak to Atka for Thursday evening through Friday
morning. This system will bring another round of rainfall for the
Chain, as temperatures will approach the mid-40s. After this,
expect a lull in the weather before the next system approaches the
western Aleutians Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Saturday through Monday)...
A large and deep storm system will make its way from the Bering
Sea into the Gulf Friday night through Saturday, with widespread
gales across the region storm force winds likely along the leading
frontal boundary as it crosses the Gulf. As this system weakens in
the Gulf Saturday night, another storm force low will track south
of the Aleutian chain. As this storm approaches the Gulf on
Monday, the low will start to take a more northerly track. Thus,
there is potential for another round of storm force winds across
the Gulf waters as the leading front crosses the Gulf on Monday.
The forecast will stick with gales for now on Monday, but suspect
as we get closer models will settle on the stronger solution.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...
A seasonably strong upper level jet combined with progressive
upper level flow will persist through at least the first half of
next week. There is seemingly no end in sight to the supply of
large deep storm systems traversing the Alaska region. Starting
out on Sunday, one storm will be in the weakening phase over the
northern Gulf and Southcentral Alaska. Another storm will be
strengthening as it tracks just south of the Aleutian chain.
Expect widespread strong winds and moderate to heavy precipitation
along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula as this storm continues
eastward Sunday through Sunday night. As this low continues to
deepen, a short-wave ridge will strengthen out ahead of it, which
will then cause the storm to curve northward as it approaches the
Gulf. As a result, expect precipitation and wind to overspread
southern Alaska. Based on a storm track in the vicinity of the
Alaska Peninsula and the western Gulf, warm air will surge
northward toward Southcentral. Thus chances are this will be
primarily a rain event along the coast, with potential for enough
warm air to spread inland and cause precipitation to change to
rain there as well. The effects of this storm look to linger
through Wednesday, with colder air moving in behind it. Stay
tuned, as it's too early to nail down specific impacts from this
storm.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Hurricane force 175 173 174 176 177.
         Gale 119 120 130 139 155 170 172 178 351 411 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CK
MARINE/LONG TERM...SEB