Hurricane Force Wind Warning 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

656 
FZAK52 PAFC 161302
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170200-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A complex 982 mb low over Shemya moves 100 nm south of Adak at 
980 mb Sun night and then weakens and moves south. A 985 mb low
160 nm east of Adak moves over the Pribilof Islands at 980 mb Sun
afternoon. Meanwhile, a 985 mb North Pacific low at that time 
merges with the Pribilof low 160 nm southeast of Saint Paul Island at
965 mb Sun night and then moves over Nunivak Island at 970 mb Mon
night.

$$

PKZ150-170200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon except S 30 
kt from the Shumagin Islands E. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt increasing to 60 kt after midnight, Seas
17 ft building to 26 ft after midnight. From the Shumagin Islands
E, S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight, Seas 19 ft. 
Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. From
the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170200-
Bristol Bay-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.  
Snow with rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Snow.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ165-170200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, S wind 25 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.MON...S wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft except 12 ft from Port Moller E. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming W 55 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170200-
Unalaska Bay-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 55 kt after midnight with gusts
to 65 kt after midnight. Seas 18 ft building to 26 ft after 
midnight. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Snow with rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170200-
Adak to Kiska-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming N 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft Bering side...18 ft Pacific side.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170200-
Kiska to Attu-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
Snow showers.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon.  Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight.  Snow.
.MON...SE wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 40 kt.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ181-170200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Widespread snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-170200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
402 AM AKST Sun Feb 16 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 20 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, W wind 25 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas in 
ice free waters 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A large area of low pressure over the Bering continues to slowly
drift northward. A weakening front is pushing inland over the
Southwest coast, producing light snow over the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay coast. Upper level ridging over the mainland has
become less amplified as it moves eastward. Beneath the ridge, a
weak surface trough over the northern Gulf coast continues to move
eastward as well. Light snow fell across the western Kenai
Peninsula for most of the overnight hours, though is beginning to
taper this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good synoptic agreement through the short term. By
Sunday night, models begin to show fairly large discrepancies
with the track and strength of a complex low in the Bering, and a
series of lows that spin off of this parent low and propagate
eastward into the Gulf of Alaska. Forecast confidence beyond
Sunday remains low, however it is likely that there will be an
active pattern for the southern half of Alaska early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sat and
Sun)...
The weekend will continue to feature relatively quiet weather
before things get much more active next week. A very weak remnant
shortwave is lifting over the Western Kenai Peninsula and portions
of the upper Cook Inlet this morning. This has made for continued
light snowfall through the overnight but with very little in the
way of accumulations. This is expected to continue through around
daybreak before tapering off completely from west to east. The
other story in this pattern is the offshore winds through the
typical locations. Whittier, Seward, and Thompson Pass continue to
hold onto gusty conditions with a general thermal offshore
gradient. The winds in Whittier could actually come up a bit more
later this evening into the overnight as an upper-level jet and
mid-level shortwave pass through the area. Besides some very light
snow showers over the coastal areas of the Prince William Sound
and North Gulf Coast, all inland locations will remain mostly dry
through Sun afternoon.

Sun afternoon will start to show the first signs of the pattern
change. An initial (primer) front will slide from Kodiak Island
early Sun afternoon up through the Susitna Valley by early Mon
morning. This front will primarily feature warmer air and some
windy conditions, but it could also spell some precipitation type
woes. While precipitation will start out as snow at Kodiak, it
will quickly switch over to rain. Further north and inland, it
will be a battle between the colder air at the surface and the
warmer air aloft. There looks to be enough southeast flow with
this front to bring winds into the Turnagain Arm/Anchorage
Hillside as well as parts of the Knik River Valley. Temperatures
in these locations should jump fairly quickly. It will be a
different story in the Susitna Valley where cold air should be
able to hold on in the lower levels and allow for accumulating
snow. Turnagain Pass will also be vulnerable to snow and possibly
some blowing snow into Mon morning with this system. Again, this
will be the first of several systems for next week (FEB 17-21), so
please see the Long Term discussion for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Snow showers will continue across the Southwest Alaska today
associated with a front from a weakening low over the central
Bering. Areas in the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay will likely
see an inch or two of new snow accumulation with this system
through this afternoon.  Gusty conditions along the Kuskokwim
Delta coast this morning will cause lower visibility with blowing
snow, which will weaken through the afternoon as winds diminish
and snow showers move farther inland.

Sunday morning, shower begin to taper off before the next
organized system lifting across the Alaska Peninsula moves in for
Sunday afternoon. Widespread precipitation is expected across the
Bristol Bay region, which will initially start off as snow, but
could transition to rain or a mix of rain and snow as warmer
temperatures move in. This system will continue to lift northward
into the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley overnight Sunday into Monday
keeping widespread snow showers in the forecast. Colder air
wrapping around the backside of the associated low will bring the
potential blowing snow for Bristol Bay Monday afternoon, extending
into the Kuskokwim Delta with stronger winds moving in.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Strong winds over the Bering will weaken this afternoon as a low
continues to lift northward and weaken over the north central
Bering. The next system system will quickly move over the western
Aleutians later this evening, which will bring an area of gale
force winds. However, there is still some uncertainty in the exact
placement and strength of this system, but there will be the
potential for blowing snow for the western Aleutians. The active
pattern continues overnight tonight as the next low system moves
over the central Aleutians, bringing widespread precipitation and
winds to the region. Models are struggling with the strength of this
low as it moves north over the Pribilofs through Sunday afternoon.
The next significant low will move over the eastern Aleutians by
Monday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Monday through Wednesday)...
Expect multiple deep lows over the eastern Bering Sea down into
the North Pacific on Monday. All of this will shift eastward, with
one or more strong lows tracking into the Gulf of Alaska Monday
night through Tuesday. Forecast confidence remains high in the
overall pattern, with support for gale to storm force lows.
Meanwhile, forecast confidence in the track and strength of each
individual storm is low.

Meanwhile, it is looking likely that another large and deep low
will move to the western Aleutians Tuesday, then quickly track
eastward across the Bering and Aleutians on Wednesday. Once again
expect widespread gales with potential for storm force winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)...
Models have come into slightly better agreement for the
Monday/Tuesday time frame, and there is increasing confidence in
an active pattern for the southern half of the state early next
week. Potential impacts with this active pattern include mixed
precipitation and possible coastal impacts across the Southwest
coast, strong gusty winds for Southcentral and along the northern
Gulf coast, and the potential for a brief warm-up.

Solutions converge upon the same general solution beginning with
a deep low tracking to the western Aleutians on Tuesday. A strong
zonal jet will drive this system quickly eastward, across the
Bering Sea and Aleutians and into the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday.
The GFS solution takes the track a bit farther north, but
ensembles support the more southern track. Based on this, expect
another round of strong winds and heavy precipitation as the storm
system crosses the area. The southern track would keep
precipitation primarily in the form of snow across the southern
mainland of Alaska Wednesday night through Friday.

On the back side of this storm, Arctic air will plunge back
southward across the entire forecast area. Thus, expect well below
normal temperatures to settle back in across Southwest Alaska late
next week, then into Southcentral Alaska by next weekend. Upper
level flow will remain progressive, so it looks like another deep
low will reach the western Aleutians by Friday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales...127, 155, 165, 170, 172, 173, 174, 176, 178, 185, 412,
413, 414.
Heavy Freezing Spray...185.
. FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...SEB/KO