High Wind Watch 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

599 
WWAK71 PAFC 101236
NPWAER

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

AKZ101-101345-
/O.CAN.PAFC.HW.A.0008.201111T0800Z-201111T1800Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
336 AM AKST Tue Nov 10 2020

...HIGH WIND WATCH IS CANCELLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS...

While some strong winds will develop Tuesday night into early 
Wednesday morning along Turnagain Arm and higher elevations, they
are not expected to reach warning levels. 

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
503 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The low pressure system that brought the winds and snow to the
area is currently south of Cape Suckling and moving southeast.
Satellite shows clouds clearing across the Anchorage area and
along the Susitna valley this morning with a clearing trend
expected west to east through today. Radar shows some lingering
snow across the coastal mountains and rain from Valdez area down
to Cordova. Observations this morning are showing light snow from
Palmer east to the Copper River Basin with temperatures in the
upper 20s to low 30s. Otherwise gusty winds have developed across
the western Gulf and Kodiak Island with 40 to 50 mph winds common.
Also outflow winds have developed at Seward with gusts up to 40
mph and in Portage and Whittier gusty west winds up to 40 mph.
Elsewhere winds are light but should increase later this morning
as the low tracks southeast and cold air filters across
Southcentral.

Out west, a deepening low is tracking northward across the western
Bering Sea, with a frontal system tracking north and east across
the Bering and Aleutians. Radar shows light precipitation forming
in the Kuskokwim Delta as the front begins to push onshore.
Observations show temperatures in the low to mid 30s so a mix of
rain and snow will be seen across the Kuskokwim Delta this
morning. This low is bringing gale force winds and rain to the
central Aleutian Islands and northward towards the Pribilof
Islands with storm force winds near Adak Island.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the low pressure system moving
southeast into the eastern Gulf as well as the low pressure system
and front moving across the Bering sea. There still is some model
spread with handling of the complex low moving into the Bering
Sea on Tuesday. Despite the differences in low track, they are
grouped together and of similar strength. Thus, have moderate
confidence in the overall weather and impacts from these systems.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Cold advection has kicked in this morning and finally cleared
out all remaining precip and most low clouds from the Anchorage
area. A few patches of fog near the terminal are possible early in
the day, but otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail through
Tuesday morning with light winds persisting.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Tuesday Night)...

The winter storm that has impacted the area the past couple days
is finally departing this morning. However, it is not going out
quietly in some areas. Winds are increasing through many of the
gaps, including Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, Thompson Pass,
and likely soon out of the Copper River Delta. The strong winds
impacting each of these areas have the potential to contain gusts
that could be hazardous if they pick up any debris. For Thompson
Pass, the significant amounts of snow the area received are now
being blown about as the wind switched directions out of the
northeast tonight. Since the area received feet of snow from this
storm, there is a lot to be blown around, despite the falling snow
having now ended. Thus, a Blizzard Warning remains in effect for
Thompson Pass until 1pm today. The winds have yet to materialize
in Valdez, but the winds through the Pass and Keystone Canyon are
known to increase suddenly, so the possibility of strong winds in
town cannot yet be ruled out.

The Winter Weather Advisory for the Copper River Basin has been
allowed to expire, as conditions have improved across most of the
Copper River Basin this morning. With that said, snow showers are
likely throughout the morning along the mountains. For the rest of
the area, today will be a break in between storms, though high
clouds associated with the next front are quickly approaching from
the west, so any unfiltered sunshine may be confined to this
morning for most of the area. The next front is expected to
largely miss most of Southcentral regarding any precipitation, as
most of the energy and moisture are absorbed by the Alaska Range.
A secondary low however will not be so nice, and will approach
from the Gulf Tuesday night. This will be the next chance of
precipitation for Southcentral, which right now looks to contain a
lot of warm air and southeasterly downslope winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Onshore flow ahead of the next frontal system is bringing in some
light precipitation into the Kuskokwim Delta. Temperatures are
warm enough for this to fall as rain or at least a rain/snow mix.
Inland and over Bristol Bay, a short wave ridge is holding off
weather and keeping skies clear. The incoming front will slowly
work its way up the Lower Kuskokwim River today into tonight,
providing at least a chance of precip as it goes. Temperatures
will be warm enough for any precip to be liquid. The next low in
this active weather pattern will arrive in Southwest AK Tuesday
and push inland Tuesday night. Temperatures will still remain warm
enough to stay rain for most areas. Models are in good enough
agreement for this system that we are confident in frontal
movement and the weather it will bring Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The second in a series of lows is now moving through northeast
through the Central Bering. This low is taking a more northerly
track than the last one, so its center will push north of our
forecast area. It's frontal system will slowly push east through
tonight, extending southwest into the Central Aleutians. A weak
ridge of high pressure to the east is what is impeding its
progress, causing the slow progression. On Tuesday, the next low
moves into the Western Aleutians and again pushes northeast into
the Bering, taking a similar tack as the previous two. It strengthens
as it does so. Also similar to the previous low, its maximum
strength is strong gale force winds to storm force in some areas.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

Storm force winds are likely across the southwestern Gulf waters
south of Kodiak Island Wednesday. As a low in the Bering tracks
eastward, a triple point low will form in the vicinity of Kodiak
Island late Wednesday. This low will track eastward across the
Gulf bringing gusty gale force winds winds to the Gulf waters
through Friday. There is high confidence gusty northwesterly winds
will develop through Kamishak Gap and over the Barren Islands.

Bering Sea:

There is increasing confidence a strong low will bring northerly
storm force winds to much of the central Bering Wednesday. As the
low tracks eastward, it will weaken, however gales, and possibly storm
force winds will linger over the southeastern Bering through
Wednesday night. Westerly flow will fill in across the Bering
behind this system for Thursday with mostly small craft winds
expected. Gale force winds are possible over the western Bering
Friday as a colder airmass arrives from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

A broad longwave trough is expected to persist over the AOR with
the jet stream centered over 50N. Two upper level waves will be
the focus for upcoming forecast packages, one centered over the
Bering Strait and the other the northern Gulf. At the surface, a
broad region of low pressure is expected from the Norton Sound
into the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday. By this time most of the
southern mainland appears to be in the cold sector of the low over
the Gulf, which will bring snow to areas of Southwest and
possibly Southcentral. There is some model discrepancy on the
placement of the low in the northern Gulf, which results in
varying precipitation potential for Southcentral on Thursday.

On Friday the through over the Gulf should exit to the southeast,
which will bring colder, drier air into Southcentral. To the
west, the low over the Norton Sound should begin to move south,
which will likely bring snow to coastal Southwest Alaska, the
AKPEN, and the central and eastern Aleutian Chain. As the low
pushes south, stronger winds are also expected over the central
Bering through Saturday. By Sunday, cold and dry air is expected
to move over the southern mainland while the next system
approaches the western Bering from the Kamchatka Peninsula.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BJB
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO/CJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
117 PM AKST MON NOV 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HEAVY SNOW       4 SW TRAPPER CREEK      62.19N 150.50W
11/08/2020  E19.5 INCH       MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            1.5 INCHES 11/7 1900L. 19.5 INCHES NEW BY
            11/8 1900L.

0919 AM     SNOW             HILAND ROAD EAGLE RIVER 61.24N 149.44W
11/09/2020  E6.8 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL 6.8 INCHES. 1/2 INCH FELL SAT
            MIXED WITH RAIN SUN. 2.4 INCHES FELL 10-3
            SUN. 4.6 INCHES FELL AFTER 8PM SUN. SNOW
            WATER EQUIV 0.48 INCHES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
311 PM AKST MON NOV 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     SNOW             12 NNW HOPE             61.05N 149.77W
11/09/2020  M4.8 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED IN UPPER POTTER VALLEY.

&&

BG