Gale Warning 828, NWS Anchorage, AK

860 
FZAK51 PAFC 291251
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-300145-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 995 mb low 300 nm south of Cordova and its associated front 
dissipate this evening over the northern Gulf. High pressure builds 
into the Gulf on Wed.

$$

PKZ119-300145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-300145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-300145-
Resurrection Bay-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 2
ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow
showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-300145-
Prince William Sound-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Widespread rain and snow 
showers.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-300145-
Port Valdez-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
snow showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow
showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-300145-
Valdez Narrows-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Widespread snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-300145-
Valdez Arm-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming Variable wind 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-300145-
Passage Canal-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-300145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-300145-
Barren Islands East-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-300145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-300145-
Chiniak Bay-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-300145-
Marmot Bay-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-300145-
Shelikof Strait-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-300145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.WED...S wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-300145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Snow.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-300145-
Kachemak Bay-
351 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 AM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad, vertically stacked ~950mb low is currently weakening in
the central Bering. As such, gusty winds and rain/snow showers
will continue across the entire Bering/Aleutians. The heaviest
precipitation has ended over Southwest Alaska, however widespread
rain/snow showers are continuing as a number of shortwaves
propagate around the main upper low. Farther east, a potent vort
max is tracking south to north across the Gulf coast. This
combined with strong southerly flow aloft between the
aforementioned upper level Bering low and a ridge centered over
the Panhandle is leading to widespread precipitation. Heaviest
snow and strongest winds are confined to higher elevations over
the eastern Kenai Peninsula, while much of the western Kenai
Peninsula and Anchorage bowl will remain downsloped in cross-
barrier flow, with only brief light rain/snow showers likely under
the aforementioned shortwave/vort max.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Synoptic model agreement remains good. Winds in Anchorage remain
somewhat in question. The latest NAMNest shows gusty
southeasterly winds making it into town. This would significantly
warm temperatures, possibly into the lower 40s. In any case, even
if winds remain light/variable, minimal precipitation is expected
given the cross-barrier flow.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR ceilings will generally persist. Ceilings may briefly
drop to MVFR as brief showers are possible over the terminal,
particularly through the morning. Southeasterly surface winds are
likewise expected to develop this morning, becoming light and
variable by early afternoon. Moderate wind shear will continue
early this morning until surface winds switch to southeasterly and
become unidirectional with winds aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A strong frontal boundary extends from Prince William Sound and
southward through the eastern Gulf of Alaska. This front is nearly
stationary today and will slowly move eastward tonight. This will
keep the precipitation heaviest in eastern Prince William Sound
with some rain and snow showers persisting in the eastern Kenai
Peninsula. The western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage and the
Mat-Su Valley will mostly downslope out though some light
precipitation may sneak across the mountains.

The biggest change in the forecast today is in the Anchorage and
Matanuska Valley where the southeast winds are expected to move
into the Anchorage bowl early this morning and persist most of the
day. This will also increase temperatures and highs around 40 are
now expected around the Anchorage Bowl. These winds are already
mixing into the Matanuska Valley and pushing temperatures toward
40 degrees there as well. Temperatures should be lower Tuesday as
the winds will have subsided which are the main driver of the
temperatures today, but it will remain rather mild for this time
of year around much of Southcentral into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Widespread light snow is expected to develop from interior
Bristol Bay north to the Kuskokwim Valley this morning as a
trough lifts across the Alaska Range. As scattered snow showers
wind down this morning over the Kuskokwim Delta, a second
shortwave lifting north will allow snow to redevelop over the
beginning this afternoon. This system will lift to Norton Sound
by early Tuesday morning, signaling an end to the light snow from
Kipnuk to Hooper Bay.

An area of low pressure will then lift north across the AKPEN on
Tuesday with gusty easterly winds increasing and a mix of rain
and snow developing along the coast, first from Dillingham and
Togiak Tuesday morning to the Kuskokwim Delta coast by early
afternoon. The combination of snow and gusty winds along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast could produce periods of blowing snow
through late Tuesday before the precipitation comes to an end.
Areas of rain and snow are then expected to develop over interior
Bristol Bay Wednesday as low pressure spins up north of Kodiak
Island. By late Wednesday, this round of precipitation is expected
to wind down as the low moves farther away and a ridge builds
over Southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Widespread gales will continue from the Pribilofs south and west
to the Central and Western Aleutians through Monday as a 954 mb
low slowly tracks westward over the Western Bering. Scattered rain
and snow showers will also persist over the Bering and much of
the Chain today, enhanced by multiple upper-level shortwaves
pinwheeling around the main upper-level low. One shortwave moving
over the the Western Aleutians this afternoon will usher in colder
air in its wake, changing any mixed rain/snow showers to all snow
by Monday evening.

This shortwave will phase with a second shortwave lifting north to
the AKPEN for Tuesday, helping to draw a low south of the AKPEN
northwestward. This low will parallel the Southwest coast with
southeasterly gales and mixed precipitation through Tuesday
night.

By late Wednesday, a rapidly strengthening North Pacific low will
track north toward Attu. This system will lift a storm-force front
over the Western and Central Aleutians by Thursday morning as the
expected sub 940 mb low approaches Shemya.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Gulf of Alaska:
Good forecast confidence on Wednesday/Thursday for no significant
winds or waves. Model guidance shows the potential for a small
area of gale force easterly winds in the southern portions of the
Gulf on Friday.

Aleutians/Bering:
Model guidance are in good agreement on a sub 940 mb low lifting
north from the Pacific and moving over the central Bering and
western Aleutians Wednesday night to late Thursday. There is a
risk for more widespread coverage storm force winds than currently
forecasted Wednesday night through Thursday night for the western
and central Bering/Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An active pattern will hold over the central Bering and western
Aleutians Thursday through Friday with a rapidly intensifying (sub
940 mb) low lifting south of the Aleutians and moving over the
Bering. Gusty winds and the potential of heavy precip, including
wintry mix, will cross the Aleutians Wednesday night through
Friday. After Friday, this low weakens and moves over the western
Bering. Model guidance diverge with the next potential storm
force low paralleling the Aleutians, but unsettled weather will
the continue with the risk for winds and precip over the weekend.

For Southcentral on Thursday, a trough moves from the western
Gulf to northeastern Pacific with a ridge over mainland AK. A
couple of weak shortwaves passes through the southern portions of
the gulf and AKPEN Thursday through Sunday. Southcentral will be
dry Thursday through Fri, but model guidance diverge with timing
of the next precip late Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 119 125 150 160 165 170 172-180 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM
MARINE/LONG TERM...MF