Brisk Wind Advisory 69, NWS Anchorage, AK

765 
FZAK52 PAFC 300006
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-301330-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 966 mb low 200 nm north of Attu slowly departs over the 
far western Bering through Wed. A strong North Pacific low 
moves to 170 nm southwest of Attu Wed night at 932 mb then 
to 100 nm north of Shemya at 928 mb by Thu evening.

$$

PKZ150-301330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-301330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-301330-
Bristol Bay-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 5 ft
building to 8 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.WED...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-301330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt except W 25 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-301330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-301330-
Unalaska Bay-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-301330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-301330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 60 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-301330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 60 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-301330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 55 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 65 kt late. Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft after midnight.
.THU...S wind 65 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-301330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 60 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft building to 18 ft after midnight. Snow.
.THU...S wind 65 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 38 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 36 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ177-301330-
Adak to Kiska-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 65 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft building to 26 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 65 kt. Seas 45 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 42 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-301330-
Kiska to Attu-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 65 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft building to 27 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 70 kt. Seas 52 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 44 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-301330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt around midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-301330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NW after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-301330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 40 kt.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-301330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
306 PM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island...SE wind 20 kt. 
W of Saint Matthew Island...E 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt 
after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 20 kt. 
W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 20 kt increasing 
to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 55 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
508 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Deep southerly flow continues to bring widespread cloudcover and a
rain/snow mix to much of the southern mainland. The majority of
the precipitation is focused along a sharp shortwave trough moving
northward from the Kenai Peninsula into the Susitna Valley. This
shortwave produced a band of precipitation heavy enough to produce
ice pellets and wet snow as it moved northward through the
Kenai/Soldotna area late this morning. Under this trough, a
weakening low centered over Shelikof Strait brought gale force
winds into Prince William Sound and the Barren Islands this
morning, but have all slowly diminishing as the low progressed
northward and weakened.

Over the Bering Sea, a slowly weakening 957 mb low centered over
the dateline continues to bring gale force winds and rain showers
to much of the area west of the Pribilof Islands. The next system
can be seen rotating around the southern edge of this low tracking
towards the AKPen, which is expected to bring more active weather
to the Southwest coast for Tuesday.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Synoptic model agreement is now very good through mid week with
both the approaching lows in the AKPen and Eastern Gulf. The
agreement with the Eastern Gulf low in particular has improved in
the last few days, so the forecast was changed today to reflect a
deeper and slower low track with good confidence. Starting on
Thursday the guidance is also in remarkably good agreement the
next low to move through the Western Aleutians, considering how
extremely deep and rapidly developing this system is. There
remains some question with the exact positioning of this system,
but there is good consensus that this system will bomb out to
as deep as 930 mb, or potentially even approach the North Pacific
record of 924 mb. Read the Marine discussion below for more
information on this system.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The SE winds should dissipate through the evening, leaving
VFR conditions and diminishing winds that will continue into the
day on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A North Pacific low will move to the northern Gulf of Alaska tonight.
Its frontal boundary will linger over Prince William Sound (PWS),
then retreats back to the northern Gulf by Tue morning in time
for the low curving westward to the Barren Islands through Tue
evening. This front will transition into a barrier jet which will
increase winds to gales on Tue along the coast. This feature will
be the main weather maker especially along the coastal areas over
the next couple days.

The approach of the next North Pacific low moving closer to
Kodiak Island on Tue will move the same direction as the
aforementioned low, and these two separate lows could either merge
or one would weaken while the other advances inland toward the
Alaska Range by Tue night. Essentially, the barrier jet will usher
strong gusts and increased rainfall mainly over the eastern Kenai
Peninsula through Prince William Sound through Tue night until
the trough weakens and moves inland through early Wed morning.
Warm southerly winds will continue to bring warmer temperatures
inland through at least Tue night, before cold air advection from
the Gulf moves over the region by Wed morning. The potential for
mixed precipitation (rain/snow) is in the forecast, with mostly
rainfall covering the coastal areas through at least Tue
afternoon/Tue evening. Over the Susitna Valley and Copper River
Basin, colder air will linger over the next couple days, with the
potential for snow through the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Thursday)...

A storm over the North Pacific will lift northward across the
Alaska Peninsula late tonight, then weaken as it continues
northwestward across the eastern Bering Sea on Tuesday. This
will bring gusty winds and areas of light precipitation to the
Southwest Alaska coast. With a warm air mass in place, and
additional warming likely as the storm passes by, expect rain or
a mix of rain/snow in the Bristol Bay/Alaska Peninsula region and
snow or a mix of rain/snow along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. In
the wake of this surface low, an upper level short-wave trough
will lift northward across the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday. This will bring a better chance of precipitation,
especially to Bristol Bay. A slight cooling of the airmass will
lead to a transition back toward mostly snow. High pressure will
then build overhead Wednesday night and Thursday, leading to dry
conditions and cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Thursday)...

A vertically stacked low will continue to spin over the central
to western Bering Sea through Wednesday, with a series of short-
waves rotating around the center. This will maintain a showery
pattern with locally gusty winds. Attention will then shift to a
major storm developing over the northwest Pacific. While there
remains some uncertainty in the exact track of this low, the
forecast is on track to bring widespread storm force winds to the
Aleutians and central Bering Sea Wednesday night through Thursday,
with a smaller area of hurricane-force winds likely on the south
side of the low center. There could be a period of snow and
blowing snow when precipitation first arrives Wednesday evening,
especially for Shemya, but expect winds and warm air advection to
warm up surface temperatures fairly quickly. A High Wind Warning
may eventually be needed for somewhere along the central to
western Aleutians, but that will depend heavily on the track of
the low center.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

Confidence is increasing with a deeper low moving into the Gulf on
Tuesday, which now looks to bring another round of gale force
winds along the north Gulf Coast. Afterwards conditions
throughout the Gulf will fall to small craft or below starting on
Wednesday, before the next gale force front skirts the southern
Gulf starting late Thursday.

Aleutians/Bering:

Model agreement and forecast confidence remains very good on the
track of an extremely deep low moving into the Western
Aleutians/Bering late Wednesday into Friday. Confidence is
greatest that this system will bring storm to potentially
hurricane force winds to most areas west of Dutch Harbor. This
system will also bring high seas to the region, which could reach
as high as 40-50 ft along the Pacific coast west of Adak. This
system looks to be the deepest low to move through the region
since the remnants of Typhoon Nuri in 2014, which nearly set the
North Pacific record for minimum central pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The remnants of the extremely deep, to potentially record
breaking Western Aleutian low will dominate the long term forecast
beginning on Friday. This may allow for a few weak lows to move
through the Gulf into this weekend, however at this point they
look to be centered far enough to the south to keep any
significant impacts away from the southern mainland. In general
though, model agreement and forecast confidence is below average
by late this week, largely due to significant uncertainty with the
remnants of the Bering low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 119 120 130 131 150-160 170 172-174 176-178
					   180 411 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB
MARINE/LONG TERM...DEK