Gale Warning 822, NWS Anchorage, AK

618 
FZAK51 PAFC 280020
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-281330-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front extending across the western Gulf approaches the 
central and eastern Gulf on Mon while weakening. A 993 mb low 240 nm 
south of Middleton Island on Mon night will move 75 nm northeast of 
Kodiak City at 989 mb on Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-281330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 
17 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-281330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ121-281330-
Resurrection Bay-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and widespread rain showers. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and widespread
snow showers.
.TUE...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-281330-
Prince William Sound-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers and snow. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-281330-
Port Valdez-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E wind 10 kt
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow showers and rain.
.MON...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-281330-
Valdez Narrows-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers. 
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-281330-
Valdez Arm-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-281330-
Passage Canal-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 5
ft. Widespread snow and rain showers. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow and rain
showers. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-281330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-281330-
Barren Islands East-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-281330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-281330-
Chiniak Bay-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ137-281330-
Marmot Bay-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-281330-
Shelikof Strait-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain
showers. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ139-281330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. 
Widespread rain and snow showers.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
4 ft building to 6 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-281330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Widespread
snow and rain showers.
.MON...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft. and snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft building
to 5 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-281330-
Kachemak Bay-
320 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers and 
snow.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 PM AKST Sat Dec 26 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The majority of the jet activity
remains over the Bering, where a significant pattern change is
underway. At 300 mb (30,000') the jet rolls from west to east at
125 kts in support of a very deep ~940 mb surface low over the
Western Aleutians. The jet then turns over top of a shortwave
ridge in the Central Aleutians at 95 kts before diving well south
into the North Pacific. Southcentral's upper levels are fairly
quiet this afternoon. However, it is a different story in the
lower levels where a potent mid 980 mb low is rolling quickly
through Prince William Sound. This low continues to produce plenty
of snow across the higher elevations, with some rain mixing in
for Whittier. It also produced a brief period of blizzard
conditions for Thompson Pass this morning with gusty northeast
winds. The system is now tracking inland and should continue to
weaken.

At the surface over the Bering, the deep area of low pressure is
slinging an impressive warm front towards the Southwest mainland.
A very strong bent back occlusion is wrecking havoc on the
Western Aleutians with hurricane force wind gusts and driving
snow. This occlusion does not show any signs of moving anytime
soon, so expect these conditions to persist through the evening
hours at least. As the warm front treks across the Bering, it is
bringing gusty winds, heavy rain, and blowing snow to areas that
are cold enough ahead of the front (the Pribilof Islands, Alaska
Peninsula, etc).

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models have come into very good agreement and
forecast confidence is moderate to high once again. There are a
few subtle features that show some discrepancy. One of those is
the exact location of the bent back occlusion over the Western
Aleutians. Overnight and this morning, models shifted the track of
the surface low further to the east. This shifted the worst
conditions associated with the occlusion directly over top of
Shemya. If this continues to hold, further updates may be needed
to the forecast and the Winter Storm Warning in effect for that
area. The other subtle feature is the cold air ahead of the front.
A few sites have indicated a trend towards keeping cold air in
place a bit longer. This will be critical as the front approaches
the west coast. If the cold air holds on longer, it could make for
longer periods of snow and a better chance of blowing snow.
Finally, over the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley, there is
still some discrepancy regarding snowfall tonight. As the low
moves inland from Prince William Sound and a shortwave tracks up
Cook Inlet, this should be enough overrunning to produce some
light snow. However, models disagree on exactly how much QPF there
will be and exactly where the most snow might fall.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...A few light snow showers remain possible through this
evening. Conditions will be mostly VFR, but may locally drop for
brief periods with any snow shower activity. By late this
evening, snow showers will move out of the area, but cigs will
continue to linger around 5,000'. Winds should remain light and
out of the north at the surface tonight into Sun. However,
southeast winds will increase over Turnagain Arm and higher
elevations which could lead to some wind shear conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The pattern will become more active over the next couple days as a
front moves into Southcentral from the west. Winds will increase
across Turnagain Arm and higher elevations Sunday afternoon due
to the combination of ageostrophic forcing from favorable pressure
gradients with geostrophic forcing as the orientation of the
front will support southeasterly winds in Turnagain Arm. A High
Wind Watch has been issued for those areas from 3pm Sunday to 1am
Monday as the localized funneling of these winds in those
locations have the potential to produce gusts up to 75 mph at
times. As this front weakens Sunday night, both the geostrophic
and ageostrophic forcing will weaken and thus the winds will
weaken.

The next system will be a low moving north in the Gulf on Tuesday.
There is a likely chance of a barrier jet forming in the northern
Gulf on Tuesday as there will be a coastal ridge on the lee of the
Chugach Mountains as the front becomes compressed along the
windward side of the Chugach Mountains. Cross-barrier flow across
the Chugach Mountains will remain strong, thus precipitation
amounts are expected to be significantly lower in the Anchorage
Bowl due to downsloping.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A shortwave ridge ahead of a front over the eastern Bering is
pushing a trough and any lingering showers out of Southwest Alaska
this afternoon. Strong southerly winds will quickly move in
across the Southwest as the aforementioned front approaches the
coast overnight and into Sunday morning.

Cold temperatures on the front side of the system will allow for
precipitation to start initially as snow stretching from the AKPEN
to Bristol Bay. This will allow for a brief period of blowing
snow and reduced visibility along the coast from Dillingham west.
Thus, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued through Sunday
morning. Precipitation will quickly transition to rain as warmer
air moves in with the frontal system. Precipitation will become
more showery by Sunday afternoon, changing back over to a
rain/snow mix late Sunday and then back to all snow showers by
Monday with colder air moving back into the region.

Over the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley, colder air in place will
allow for a longer period of snow on Sunday before mixing over and
changing to all rain. The strong winds combined with the heavy
snowfall at times will lead to blizzard conditions along the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast, leading to a Blizzard Warning for these
conditions to be issued. Expect wind gusts up to 50 mph and
visibility reductions to one quarter mile in blowing snow
through Sunday afternoon. Snow will then begin to taper off to
snow showers across the region late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 though 3)...

Storm force winds continues across the Bering associated with a
low positioned southwest of Adak this afternoon. On the backside
of this occluded front, cold air and strong winds are keeping
blowing snow and lower visibility for Shemya today, resulting in
the Winter Storm Warning to be extended through early Sunday
morning when conditions should improve.

The associated storm force front is stretched over the eastern
Bering working its way towards the Southwest coast and Alaska
Peninsula overnight into Sunday morning. Convective activity and
lightning strikes have already been observed with this system
south of Adak today, which will continue to move into the coastal
zones this evening. Temperatures are still cold enough on the
front edge of this system keeping some blowing snow in the
forecast for the Pribilofs this afternoon before transitioning to
rain as warmer temperatures move in. Precipitation has already
switched over to rain for Dutch Harbor and will continue this
trend for the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN through the evening
hours into early Sunday as the front progresses eastward.

This system then stalls out over the Bering late Sunday into
Monday, keeping gale force winds and widespread precipitation
across much of the Bering and Aleutians. The central Aleutians may
see an area of storm force winds late Sunday for a brief period
of time before weakening back to gales.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

There is good forecast agreement on a barrier jet moving along the
northern Gulf Coast with gale force winds on Tuesday. Good
forecast confidence on Wednesday/Thursday for no significant winds
or waves.

Aleutians/Bering:

Model guidance are struggling with the positioning and movement of
a sub 945 mb low moving over the central Bering and western
Aleutians. Depending on the exact track/location, expect the
potential upside risk of gale to storm force winds Wednesday night
through Thursday for the western and central Bering/Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

A weakening Pacific low will move near the AKPen on Wednesday
bringing a light wintry mix to portions of the Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska coast, but with little impact for locations
further inland thanks to high pressure parked over east central
Alaska.

The real forecast excitement will be found further west with
models coalescing around the idea of another powerful (sub 940 mb)
low forming near the western Aleutians Wednesday night into
Thursday. The details of the exact low track still are yet to be
ironed out, but snow/blowing snow may once again be a significant
concern across the western Aleutians. In addition to this,
widespread gales and storm force winds appear possible across the
central Bering/Aleutians.

On Friday this storm looks to lift into the central Bering while
gradually weakening. Expect a continued risk for widespread Gales
across the Bering, and a wintry mix for much of the Aleutians
through the AKPen. Model agreement begins to fall apart on
Saturday, but the general idea will be continued unsettled weather
across the Bering/Aleutians and relatively quiet weather across
Southcentral as high pressure dominates.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning: 155.
		 Winter Storm Warning: 191.
		 High Wind Watch: 101.
		 Winter Weather Advisory: 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 150-165 176 178 180 185 411 412 414.
  		 Gale Warning: 119 120 125 130-138 170 172-175 177 179 181
					   351 352 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ED
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...BG/MF