Gale Warning 737, NWS Anchorage, AK

091 
FZAK62 PAFC 280027
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
327 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-281515-
327 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 946 mb low at 55N 175W will move to 56N 174E at 966 mb on Tue 
afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-281515-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
327 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Widespread snow
and rain showers.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas
11 to 18 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 23 to 35 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 23 to 29 ft.

$$

PKZ412-281515-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
327 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft. Widespread 
rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft.

$$

PKZ413-281515-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
327 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 30 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ414-281515-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
327 PM AKST Sun Dec 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

109 
FZAK62 PAFC 281217
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
317 AM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-290200-
317 AM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 954 mb low at 56N 177W will move to 56N 172E at 968 mb by Tue
evening.

$$

PKZ411-290200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
317 AM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Rain and snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas
11 to 18 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Widespread rain and
snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...E wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 26 to 31 ft.

$$

PKZ412-290200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
317 AM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft.

$$

PKZ413-290200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
317 AM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft.

$$

PKZ414-290200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
317 AM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

616 
FZAK62 PAFC 282344
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
244 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-291415-
244 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 958 mb low at 56N 178W moves to 56N 172E at 968 mb by Tue 
evening then to 56N 166E at 976 mb Wed evening. A 979 mb low at 
49N 161W crosses the Alaska Peninsula near Sand Point at 985 mb 
Tues morning then dissipates over Nunivak Island Tues evening. 

$$

PKZ411-291415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
244 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt except E wind 20 to 30 kt N of 56N. 
Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ412-291415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
244 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-291415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
244 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-291415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
244 PM AKST Mon Dec 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

150 
FZAK62 PAFC 291328
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-300215-
428 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 964 mb low at 56N 177E slowly departs over the far western
Bering through Wed. A 941 mb low moves to 49N 168E Wed evening,
with its front extending across the western Aleutians.

$$

PKZ411-300215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
428 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt except E 15 to 30 kt N of 56 N. Seas 9 
to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...SE wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-300215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
428 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 20 to 33 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-300215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
428 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ414-300215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
428 AM AKST Tue Dec 29 2020

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 PM AKST Sat Dec 26 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The majority of the jet activity
remains over the Bering, where a significant pattern change is
underway. At 300 mb (30,000') the jet rolls from west to east at
125 kts in support of a very deep ~940 mb surface low over the
Western Aleutians. The jet then turns over top of a shortwave
ridge in the Central Aleutians at 95 kts before diving well south
into the North Pacific. Southcentral's upper levels are fairly
quiet this afternoon. However, it is a different story in the
lower levels where a potent mid 980 mb low is rolling quickly
through Prince William Sound. This low continues to produce plenty
of snow across the higher elevations, with some rain mixing in
for Whittier. It also produced a brief period of blizzard
conditions for Thompson Pass this morning with gusty northeast
winds. The system is now tracking inland and should continue to
weaken.

At the surface over the Bering, the deep area of low pressure is
slinging an impressive warm front towards the Southwest mainland.
A very strong bent back occlusion is wrecking havoc on the
Western Aleutians with hurricane force wind gusts and driving
snow. This occlusion does not show any signs of moving anytime
soon, so expect these conditions to persist through the evening
hours at least. As the warm front treks across the Bering, it is
bringing gusty winds, heavy rain, and blowing snow to areas that
are cold enough ahead of the front (the Pribilof Islands, Alaska
Peninsula, etc).

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models have come into very good agreement and
forecast confidence is moderate to high once again. There are a
few subtle features that show some discrepancy. One of those is
the exact location of the bent back occlusion over the Western
Aleutians. Overnight and this morning, models shifted the track of
the surface low further to the east. This shifted the worst
conditions associated with the occlusion directly over top of
Shemya. If this continues to hold, further updates may be needed
to the forecast and the Winter Storm Warning in effect for that
area. The other subtle feature is the cold air ahead of the front.
A few sites have indicated a trend towards keeping cold air in
place a bit longer. This will be critical as the front approaches
the west coast. If the cold air holds on longer, it could make for
longer periods of snow and a better chance of blowing snow.
Finally, over the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley, there is
still some discrepancy regarding snowfall tonight. As the low
moves inland from Prince William Sound and a shortwave tracks up
Cook Inlet, this should be enough overrunning to produce some
light snow. However, models disagree on exactly how much QPF there
will be and exactly where the most snow might fall.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...A few light snow showers remain possible through this
evening. Conditions will be mostly VFR, but may locally drop for
brief periods with any snow shower activity. By late this
evening, snow showers will move out of the area, but cigs will
continue to linger around 5,000'. Winds should remain light and
out of the north at the surface tonight into Sun. However,
southeast winds will increase over Turnagain Arm and higher
elevations which could lead to some wind shear conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The pattern will become more active over the next couple days as a
front moves into Southcentral from the west. Winds will increase
across Turnagain Arm and higher elevations Sunday afternoon due
to the combination of ageostrophic forcing from favorable pressure
gradients with geostrophic forcing as the orientation of the
front will support southeasterly winds in Turnagain Arm. A High
Wind Watch has been issued for those areas from 3pm Sunday to 1am
Monday as the localized funneling of these winds in those
locations have the potential to produce gusts up to 75 mph at
times. As this front weakens Sunday night, both the geostrophic
and ageostrophic forcing will weaken and thus the winds will
weaken.

The next system will be a low moving north in the Gulf on Tuesday.
There is a likely chance of a barrier jet forming in the northern
Gulf on Tuesday as there will be a coastal ridge on the lee of the
Chugach Mountains as the front becomes compressed along the
windward side of the Chugach Mountains. Cross-barrier flow across
the Chugach Mountains will remain strong, thus precipitation
amounts are expected to be significantly lower in the Anchorage
Bowl due to downsloping.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A shortwave ridge ahead of a front over the eastern Bering is
pushing a trough and any lingering showers out of Southwest Alaska
this afternoon. Strong southerly winds will quickly move in
across the Southwest as the aforementioned front approaches the
coast overnight and into Sunday morning.

Cold temperatures on the front side of the system will allow for
precipitation to start initially as snow stretching from the AKPEN
to Bristol Bay. This will allow for a brief period of blowing
snow and reduced visibility along the coast from Dillingham west.
Thus, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued through Sunday
morning. Precipitation will quickly transition to rain as warmer
air moves in with the frontal system. Precipitation will become
more showery by Sunday afternoon, changing back over to a
rain/snow mix late Sunday and then back to all snow showers by
Monday with colder air moving back into the region.

Over the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley, colder air in place will
allow for a longer period of snow on Sunday before mixing over and
changing to all rain. The strong winds combined with the heavy
snowfall at times will lead to blizzard conditions along the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast, leading to a Blizzard Warning for these
conditions to be issued. Expect wind gusts up to 50 mph and
visibility reductions to one quarter mile in blowing snow
through Sunday afternoon. Snow will then begin to taper off to
snow showers across the region late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 though 3)...

Storm force winds continues across the Bering associated with a
low positioned southwest of Adak this afternoon. On the backside
of this occluded front, cold air and strong winds are keeping
blowing snow and lower visibility for Shemya today, resulting in
the Winter Storm Warning to be extended through early Sunday
morning when conditions should improve.

The associated storm force front is stretched over the eastern
Bering working its way towards the Southwest coast and Alaska
Peninsula overnight into Sunday morning. Convective activity and
lightning strikes have already been observed with this system
south of Adak today, which will continue to move into the coastal
zones this evening. Temperatures are still cold enough on the
front edge of this system keeping some blowing snow in the
forecast for the Pribilofs this afternoon before transitioning to
rain as warmer temperatures move in. Precipitation has already
switched over to rain for Dutch Harbor and will continue this
trend for the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN through the evening
hours into early Sunday as the front progresses eastward.

This system then stalls out over the Bering late Sunday into
Monday, keeping gale force winds and widespread precipitation
across much of the Bering and Aleutians. The central Aleutians may
see an area of storm force winds late Sunday for a brief period
of time before weakening back to gales.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

There is good forecast agreement on a barrier jet moving along the
northern Gulf Coast with gale force winds on Tuesday. Good
forecast confidence on Wednesday/Thursday for no significant winds
or waves.

Aleutians/Bering:

Model guidance are struggling with the positioning and movement of
a sub 945 mb low moving over the central Bering and western
Aleutians. Depending on the exact track/location, expect the
potential upside risk of gale to storm force winds Wednesday night
through Thursday for the western and central Bering/Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

A weakening Pacific low will move near the AKPen on Wednesday
bringing a light wintry mix to portions of the Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska coast, but with little impact for locations
further inland thanks to high pressure parked over east central
Alaska.

The real forecast excitement will be found further west with
models coalescing around the idea of another powerful (sub 940 mb)
low forming near the western Aleutians Wednesday night into
Thursday. The details of the exact low track still are yet to be
ironed out, but snow/blowing snow may once again be a significant
concern across the western Aleutians. In addition to this,
widespread gales and storm force winds appear possible across the
central Bering/Aleutians.

On Friday this storm looks to lift into the central Bering while
gradually weakening. Expect a continued risk for widespread Gales
across the Bering, and a wintry mix for much of the Aleutians
through the AKPen. Model agreement begins to fall apart on
Saturday, but the general idea will be continued unsettled weather
across the Bering/Aleutians and relatively quiet weather across
Southcentral as high pressure dominates.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning: 155.
		 Winter Storm Warning: 191.
		 High Wind Watch: 101.
		 Winter Weather Advisory: 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 150-165 176 178 180 185 411 412 414.
  		 Gale Warning: 119 120 125 130-138 170 172-175 177 179 181
					   351 352 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ED
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...BG/MF