Gale Warning 783, NWS Anchorage, AK

345 
FZAK52 PAFC 152353
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-161315-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 986 mb low 190 nm northeast of Adak moves over the northern 
Bering by Wed afternoon and weakens. A 982 mb low 280 nm southwest 
of Dutch Harbor Wed morning moves to 110 south of Cold Bay by 
Wed afternoon and then moves into the Western Gulf by Thu afternoon.
A 978 mb low tracks in the vicinity of the central Aleutians Wed 
afternoon and continues eastward through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-161315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-161315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, 
SE wind 15 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ160-161315-
Bristol Bay-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-161315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. From Port Moller E, variable 
wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-161315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-161315-
Unalaska Bay-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-161315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 19 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ173-161315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-161315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 24 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-161315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. Snow showers 
and rain showers.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-161315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming variable 10 kt by midnight. 
Seas 21 ft subsiding to 15 ft after midnight.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ177-161315-
Adak to Kiska-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt becoming variable wind 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Bering side, W wind 25 kt. Pacific side, W wind 40 kt
diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft Bering side...17
ft Pacific side. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-161315-
Kiska to Attu-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-161315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-161315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.WED...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. 
Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-161315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Patchy fog. Snow.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
Freezing spray and patchy fog.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-161315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
253 PM AKST Tue Dec 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt 
becoming E 20 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, 
E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

896 
FZAK52 PAFC 161204
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170100-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 987 mb low at 56N 166W moves to 160 nm northwest of Port Heiden 
at 985 mb Wed night, then dissipating. A second 978 mb low
intensifying Thu afternoon near 120 nm southwest of Amchitka moves 
to 80 nm east of Saint George at 970 mb Fri morning. An area of low 
pressure lingers to the north of western Aleutians through Fri 
morning.

$$

PKZ150-170100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt early becoming S. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 11 
ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, E wind 15 kt
becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170100-
Bristol Bay-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt, except 15 kt E of Cape Constantine. Seas 4 ft.
Freezing spray, patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Freezing spray. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-170100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. From Port Moller E, variable wind 10 kt
becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt except W 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170100-
Unalaska Bay-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft 
building to 12 ft after midnight. Rain and snow showers.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt early increasing to 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.THU...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 
ft subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.THU...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170100-
Adak to Kiska-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Pacific side...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Bering side...SW 
wind 30 kt becoming variable 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 19
ft, Bering side...9 ft Pacific side.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170100-
Kiska to Attu-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft 
building to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 
ft. Freezing spray. Rain and snow showers. 
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of Cape
Newenham.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-170100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
ft. Freezing spray and patchy freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray after midnight.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-170100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
304 AM AKST Wed Dec 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray E of Saint
Matthew Island in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
419 PM AKST Mon Dec 14 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An elongated trough extends over the eastern Bering while an upper
level ridge is in place over the Alcan border. A vertically
stacked low over the southeastern Gulf is gradually lifting toward
the northeast. Meanwhile over Southcentral, a weakening frontal
boundary has moved inland, spreading in light rain showers along
the coast and a few snow showers inland. Farther west, snow
showers continue over the Bristol Bay region and Kuskokwim Delta
coast as several upper level waves rotate around the eastern
Bering low. High level cloud cover associated with the low in the
southeastern Gulf will continue to reach Southcentral today.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement through the short-term. One
consistent difference between model solutions has been when the
snow across the Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys will taper off,
with the NAM solution suggesting a longer duration through Tuesday
evening. One major difference is the timing of an upper level wave
that moves across Southcentral Tuesday night. The GFS/EC solution
is slower to bring this wave through while the NAM has a faster
solution. By later in the week, models are struggling to resolve
the strength and track of a North Pacific low that approaches the
southern Alaska Peninsula. Currently, the GFS is the fastest and
northernmost solution. Overall, there is much lower confidence in
the forecast beyond Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light and variable winds will continue
through Monday evening. Snow may start as early as 9Z, bringing
conditions down to MVFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Thursday)...
The focus of the next couple days will be a long duration light
snow event for Southcentral Alaska. A short-wave trough
approaching the western Gulf will tap into moisture from the deep
low sitting over the northeast Pacific. The trough, which has
a very slight negative tilt, will be slow to move because of a
robust short-wave ridge sitting over Southcentral. Therefore,
initial forcing will come from a low level moisture and
convergence boundary extending from east of Kodiak Island
northward to the Kenai Peninsula along with weak low level
instability (12Z Anchorage sounding shows a 5000 ft layer with
lapse rates around 7 degrees C/km). Expect light snow to develop
across the Kenai Peninsula this evening, then continue northward
to Anchorage, the Mat-Su and the Copper River Basin overnight
tonight through Tuesday. The upper trough axis will then pick up
speed as it crosses Southcentral Tuesday night through Wednesday.
The trough axis itself is quite weak, thus snowfall will generally
be quite light, with storm totals of roughly 1 to 4 inches across
Southcentral. A vorticity maximum associated with the upper level
low currently over Southwest Alaska looks like it will phase with
the trough, which could locally and briefly enhance snowfall
rates. However, it is not yet clear where this phasing will occur.
Snow will taper off across the region from southwest to northeast
Tuesday night through Wednesday, lingering longest in the Copper
River Basin.

For Wednesday night and Thursday, a low will approach the Gulf
from the North Pacific. At this time, there is high level of
uncertainty in the track of this low and specifically, how far
north into the Gulf it will make it. Kodiak and the north Gulf
coast are the most likely regions to see wind and precipitation
from this low. The rest of Southcentral should remain dry out
ahead of this system, with seasonably cold temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Widespread snowfall continues across the Kuskokwim Delta and
western Bristol Bay this afternoon, which will spread farther
inland overnight into Tuesday morning. These areas could see an
additional 2 to 4 inches of snowfall, with the Togiak area likely
to see highest totals, over the next day with this system. The
associated surface low near Nunivak Island today will continue to
lift northward out of the forecast area through Tuesday, leading
to a break in snowfall across much of the Southwest mainland early
Wednesday. The chance for snow returns to the Alaska Peninsula
and Southwest Alaska on Thursday as a low in the North Pacific
lifts northward. However, there is still some uncertainty in the
position of this system as to how far inland the snowfall will
move.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Benign conditions continue across the Bering and Aleutians this
afternoon, which will quickly transition back to an active pattern
overnight tonight into Tuesday. A compact low will move lift over
the central Aleutians by early Tuesday morning, bringing a round
of strong gale force winds, with the potential for storm force
gusts and widespread precipitation. This system has once again
shifted its track, now farther north like the model runs from two
days ago showed. However, the strongest winds should remain south
of the Aleutian Chain as this system moves eastward and weakens
through Wednesday.

A second North Pacific low will approach the eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula on Wednesday, but models are struggling on the
placement of how far north this system will lift. This will bring
another round of widespread mixed precipitation to the region
through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Thursday through Saturday)...

Gulf of Alaska: The forecast period looks to be active during this
time with two lows potentially impacting the Gulf. The first one
Thursday we continue to become more confident in that a gale
force system will impact the Gulf, however, exact track and
intensity remain uncertain affecting where the gale force winds
occur. There may be a brief lull in the gale force winds Friday
especially for the western Gulf. Another gale force system may
impact the Gulf Friday night into Saturday but this one remains
highly uncertain.

Bering Sea: For the eastern Bering, confidence has increased some
since yesterday for a potential gale force system to impact the
region Thursday through Friday, however, exact placement and
intensity continue to remain uncertain. Confidence is fairly high
for the western, northern, and central Bering for the forecast
period to have relatively benign conditions with winds less than
30 kts and seas less than 15 feet.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Friday through Monday)...

The weather pattern during the forecast time period continues to
show strong Arctic high pressure locked in over the Interior of
Alaska east to the Yukon Territory. The subtropical jet continues
to remain fairly active during this time frame as well with
multiple storms trying to move northeastward and into the cold
air that is locked in across the interior areas of Alaska and the
Yukon. Latest data suggests that coastal areas of the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and Prince William Sound area have the
best chance to see any meaningful precipitation during this
timeframe. Some of the energy from these systems may occasionally
send some light snow into the Anchorage area and across Southwest
but this time frame looks to remain on the colder side with
temperatures averaging below normal. The exact track and intensity
of any of these systems in this time frame continues to remain
highly uncertain and will become more clearer over the coming
days. Therefore, stay tuned. The weather continues to remain
fairly active as well across the Aleutian Island Chain with
chances for rain and snow accompanied by some wind with any system
that moves through.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 174 176 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...MV