Gale Warning 657, NWS Anchorage, AK

050 
FZAK52 PAFC 152301 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

Updated 150 and 155

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-160430-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A complex 989 mb North Pacific low 540 nm south of Attu Island moves
70 nm west of Saint Paul at 995 mb by Mon night. A 988 mb North 
Pacific low 450 nm southwest of Attu Island Mon afternoon moves
320 nm northwest of Attu Island at 967 mb by Mon night.

$$

PKZ150-160430-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt in the morning diminishing to 10 kt. Seas
5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-160430-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes. Seas
11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-160430-
Bristol Bay-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-160430-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Freezing spray 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-160430-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-160430-
Unalaska Bay-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-160430-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 11 ft in the
afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-160430-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. 
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-160430-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 12 ft after midnight. 
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-160430-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain. 
.MON...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 13 ft by afternoon. Widespread rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ176-160430-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 23 ft after
midnight. Rain. 
.MON...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
25 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-160430-
Adak to Kiska-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 26 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.MON...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft Bering side...28 ft Pac side. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-160430-
Kiska to Attu-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon.
Bering side, seas 14 ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Pac 
side, seas 18 ft building to 28 ft in the afternoon. Widespread
rain  showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
27 ft subsiding to 22 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft subsiding to 18 ft by afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft. 
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ179-160430-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt in the morning becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 6 ft by afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-160430-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing Spray in the morning. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-160430-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-160430-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
201 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 15 kt becoming SE
25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft. W of Saint Matthew Island, S
wind 30  kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

716 
FZAK52 PAFC 160025
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-161330-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 969 mb low 245 nm south of Attu moves to 145 nm west of 
Mekoryuk at 999 mb and dissipates Tue afternoon. Its front moves 
to the eastern Bering for Tue afternoon. A 1003 mb low Mon morning 
moves to 195 nm northwest of Attu at 957 mb Tue afternoon. Its front
moves over the Western Aleutians and Bering through Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-161330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes.
Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ155-161330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-161330-
Bristol Bay-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-161330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-161330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-161330-
Unalaska Bay-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ172-161330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-161330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft after midnight.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-161330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 11 ft after midnight.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-161330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-161330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 23 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 25
ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ177-161330-
Adak to Kiska-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
26 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft Bering side...28 ft Pac side.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft Bering side... 22 ft Pac
side.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-161330-
Kiska to Attu-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 29
ft subsiding to 23 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-161330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-161330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-161330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-161330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
325 PM AKST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...The pattern is dominated by a
sharply building ridge over the Bering with a broad longwave
trough over the mainland. Within the trough there is widespread
cold air and a weak low in the Northern Gulf of AK. This weak low
provided just enough moisture streaming over top of the cold air
to produce some light snow (around 1 inch) over parts of the
Anchorage Bowl this morning. After the snow, fog once again
settled in the Bowl and over parts of the Matanuska Valley. Over
the Western Aleutians, the signs of the next system are already
evident. Some mid and high clouds are quickly streaming north from
the North Pacific into the Western Aleutians and southerly winds
are already making it into Shemya.

In the upper levels, a potent 300mb jet (around 30,000') is
supporting all of these key features. It currently flows from
west to east at 130 kt into the Western Bering as it supports the
developing North Pacific low. It then makes a sharp turn to the
north up and over the building ridge. It then dives back down at
120 kt through the Eastern Bering and returns to due west-east
flow well south of the Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...Models remain in good agreement with all of
the main synoptic features. The preferred models with the
incoming system for the Western Aleutians were once again the GFS
and the Canadian as they have been the most consistent with the
strength and track. The main areas where the models continue to
struggle involve any chance for precipitation associated with the
low in the Northern Gulf and fog in Southcentral. Hi-res models
and hand edits were used to handle these features. The shortwave
that moved through the YK Delta last night into this morning was
not resolved well by the models, but it appears this feature is
now quickly falling apart.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog is slowly lifting across the Anchorage Bowl. As the
offshore gradient increases and winds start to pick up out of the
northeast, this should allow just enough dry air to mix in to
allow visibilities to continue to improve. However, there is
still plenty of low level moisture to keep some MVFR ceilings into
the late evening. There remains an outside chance that an
inversion could set-up overnight and fog from Knik Arm could once
again move in for Sunday morning. Increasing offshore (NE) winds
Sunday should result in improvement to VFR conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A stalled low in the Gulf continues to bring scattered
rain/snow showers to the Prince William Sound area. As relatively
higher pressure builds to the north, stronger northerly winds will
develop. This will push the aforementioned precipitation farther
offshore as well as bring clearing skies and cooler temperatures
to the region. Winds will be strongest though mountain gaps and
passes. The same general pattern will persist through much of the
upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Saturday
night through Tuesday)...

A cold front has pushed through much of southwest Alaska today, and
snow showers have wrapped up across the Kuskokwim Delta. Clearing
skies tonight will allow for colder low temperatures with teens
and single digits expected. Even chillier conditions are expected
Sunday night as this colder airmass settles in. On Monday, weak
onshore flow develops, and with this flow will come some fairly
widespread fog across the Kuskokwim Delta. On Tuesday, slightly
warmer conditions move in, along with the return of cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Saturday morning through Monday)...

Cold advection will persist across the eastern Bering/Aleutians
tonight through much of Sunday, and this should bring continued
snow showers to the eastern Aleutians through the southern AKPEN
with some light accumulations expected.

Further west, a storm force low will approach the western
Aleutians on Sunday. This storm will continue northeast towards
the Pribilofs late Monday as it gradually weakens below Gale
force. As this storm moves into the central Bering, it will
weaken the cold advection in the Eastern Bering causing the snow
showers to taper off.

Another Gale force front will approach the western Aleutians by
early on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

Increasing confidence for a North Pacific low to retrograde into
the Eastern Gulf by Thu. Northwest to north small craft winds and
waves spread back across the Gulf with local Northwest gale force
winds near the Barren Islands and northerly gale force winds over
the Eastern Gulf for Wed and Thu. A new front approaches the
Western Gulf Thu.

Bering Sea:

An Eastern Bering low and front tracks northward through Wed.
Model track and development are mixed but widespread southerly
small craft winds and waves with local gale force winds continue
over the Eastern Bering through Wed. A strong North Pacific low
and front move across the Bering through Thu. Widespread high-end
gale force winds and waves over the Bering with local storm force
winds wrapping the low push eastward through Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The forecast period will commence with a high amplitude ridge in
place over the eastern Bering. Looking west, the models hone in on a
surface low north of Dutch Harbor with a second surface low
southwest of Attu Island. The GFS and the ECMWF are in decent
agreement with the timing and the tracks of the lows. Day 5
(Thursday/Nov 19th) the global models advertise a 3rd low spinning
up south of the central Aleutians with the track staying south of
the chain and moving towards the Gulf Of Alaska. A fourth surface
low will be at the doorstep of Attu and Shemya by Day 7
(Saturday/Nov 21st). Very confident that this pattern will be
progressive and active. Not much of a reprieve from winter in
sight through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 175-178.
Gale Warning: 130,131,411-413,155,173,174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BG
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/PJS