Gale Warning 65, NWS Anchorage, AK

175 
FZAK52 PAFC 161221
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170100-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the eastern Bering will remain nearly stationary 
while dissipating through Thu afternoon. A 982 mb low 340 nm south
of Shemya Thu morning moves to 180 nm southeast of Adak at 983 mb
by Fri morning and the moves into the North Pacific by Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-170100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt except 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E. Seas
18 ft except 11 ft from the Shumagin Islands E.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170100-
Bristol Bay-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free 
waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-170100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt except E 30 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray east of Port Moller.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing 
spray east of Port Moller.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170100-
Unalaska Bay-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 16 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170100-
Adak to Kiska-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft Bering side...17 ft 
Pacific side. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft Bering side...17 ft 
Pacific side. Snow and rain.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170100-
Kiska to Attu-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ181-170100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt.
.SAT THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ185-170100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
321 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
24 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

931 
FZAK52 PAFC 170022
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171300-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 981 mb low 150 nm southwest of Adak moves into the North 
Pacific at 981 mb by Fri afternoon. A 995 mb low 60 nm west of 
Saint Paul moves into the Gulf of Anadyr at 998 mb by Fri 
afternoon. A weak front Fri night remains nearly stationary across
the central Bering through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-171300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171300-
Bristol Bay-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-171300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171300-
Unalaska Bay-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 30 kt during the evening. Seas
building to 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except E 30 kt after midnight from
Unalaska E. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171300-
Adak to Kiska-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171300-
Kiska to Attu-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray in the morning along the ice edge.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ181-171300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E wind 15 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ185-171300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
322 PM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray along the
ice edge.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray along the
ice edge.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
651 AM AKST Wed Jan 15 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A highly amplified upper level pattern has developed over the
Bering and mainland Alaska. A strong low currently centered over
the Kamchatka Peninsula is bringing moderate rain and gusty
southwesterly winds to the western Aleutians. A very sharp ridge
is seen upstream, extending all the way into the Arctic Ocean.
This is inhibiting any precipitation from developing from the
central Bering through Southcentral Alaska, although patchy fog
is indicated on satellite over portions of the Susitna Valley.
Farther east, a weak upper low centered near Fort Yukon is
resulting in a tight upper pressure gradient over the eastern part
of the state. As such, strong northerly outflow winds are being
observed in terrain gaps in the Copper River Delta as well as the
city of Valdez.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

As stated in the previous discussion, synoptic model agreement
remains good. There remains some uncertainty with regards to the
interaction between the strong front and a compact low pressure
system this morning over the central Bering. This will determine
the position of the strongest (storm force) southerly winds,
which at this time looks to be just west of Nikolski.

Likewise, there is good model consensus that the aforementioned
sharp ridge will develop into a closed upper level high and begin
to weaken in the coming 48 hours, leading to the gradual
diminishing of outflow gap winds.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Patchy fog and hence brief LIFR ceilings will remain
possible through this morning. Winds will slightly increase this
afternoon, thereby causing any remaining fog to dissipate. This
scenario is likely to repeat on Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The upper ridge over western Alaska amplifies today bringing a
strong northerly upper jet across Southcentral. This combined with
cold interior air and and strong surface gradients (temp/pressure)
will enhance outflow and gap winds across Southcentral today. Most
notably the North Gulf Coast local affect areas (Copper River Delta,
Valdez zone and surrounding marine areas, and Thompson Pass) where
gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range are expected today. The
aforementioned areas will remain fairly strong through tonight, but
will experience a slow downward trend through Thursday. Elsewhere,
winds over the eastern Kenai Peninsula/western Prince William Sound
will peak today and then slowly diminish. The upper ridge shifts
east later today and the upper flow becomes more northeasterly. That
combined with more favorable pressure gradients will enhance the
cold air spilling out of the Copper River Basin and give rise to
strong northeast winds across much of the Matanuska Valley. These
winds will likely hold through late Thursday. Many locations with
winds will experience brisk wind chills through Thursday, however
Thompson Pass is the only location expected to hit advisory (-40F)
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Cold and clear conditions will persist across Southwest Alaska today
with an upper level ridge positioned over the Southwest coast
through Thursday morning. Gusty offshore flow will continue for the
Kuskokwim Delta and coastal areas of Bristol Bay, which will
slightly weaken through Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be on a
downward trend over the next few days as Southwest Alaska remains
mostly cloud-free, with frigid temperatures returning for the
Kuskokwim Delta and Valley by the end of the week. By Friday night,
most areas will likely see low temperatures below zero, with the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley dropping to 20 below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A north-south oriented front stretched over the central to eastern
Bering and Aleutians this morning will keep an active pattern
through Thursday night. Storm force winds will accompany this
system from Dutch Harbor toward the Pribilofs late this morning
through the afternoon, which should weaken to gale force strength
by later tonight. Dutch Harbor could see strong wind gusts from
60-70 mph peaking around the afternoon hours, but wind speeds
will likely stay under the warning level criteria.

Strong winds will persist as a surface low develops along the
front near the central Aleutians this afternoon. However, there is
some disagreement on the exact placement of this low, which will
affect where the strongest winds will be and how long they last.
In any case, strong southeasterly flow will persist over the
eastern Bering and Aleutians through Thursday evening, when the
front begins to lift northward and weaken.

By late Thursday morning, the next low pressure system will make
its way over the western and central Aleutians. The associated low
center will remain south of the Chain as it continues back into
the North Pacific through Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Friday through Sunday)...

After a low exits south of the Aleutians Friday, conditions look
fairly benign through the weekend. For the Gulf, it looks like a
deep low will approach the Gulf Friday and possibly move into the
Gulf Saturday through Sunday. At this time, forecast confidence
in the track of this system is low. There is potential for gale
force winds sometime this weekend, most likely over the southern
to eastern Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Saturday through Tuesday)...

For the Bering Sea and Aleutians, conditions look relatively quiet
over the weekend, with some weak systems transiting the Bering in
fairly flat upper level flow. Deep lows will track south of the
Aleutians, along the jet stream. Some model solutions bring a
deep low up to the Aleutians Monday night through Tuesday, but
confidence in this is low.

Meanwhile, Southcentral will remain cold and dry for the beginning
of the weekend as a large deep closed upper level high crosses the
northern half of Alaska. As the ridge continues eastward into
northwest Canada, this will result in a bit of a pattern change
as upper level features start to track northward across the
state. Of most interest to Southcentral Alaska, energy from a high
amplitude trough over the northeast Pacific will be pulled
northward into the Gulf as early as Sunday. This will bring
increased potential for snow to Southcentral Sunday through
Tuesday. At a minimum would expect an increase in clouds and and
upward trend in temperatures.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory: 131.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 119 121 129 139 140 160
                                       180 185.
         Gale Warning: 127 155 165 171 175-181 185.
         Storm Warning: 170 172-174.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...SB