Gale Warning 62, NWS Anchorage, AK

214 
FZAK51 PAFC 150031
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-151345-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

Northerly flow continues across the western Gulf through 
Wednesday afternoon. A front slowly approaches the western Gulf 
Wednesday night before it moves southeast through Thursday 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-151345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the Copper River Delta.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas
6 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the Copper River Delta.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the Copper River Delta.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-151345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-151345-
Resurrection Bay-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-151345-
Prince William Sound-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of bays and passes. Seas
4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 6 
ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-151345-
Port Valdez-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt, increasing to 25 kt after midnight with
gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-151345-
Valdez Narrows-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-151345-
Valdez Arm-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6 
ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-151345-
Passage Canal-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 3 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 3 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 3 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-151345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-151345-
Barren Islands East-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 11
ft. Freezing spray
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-151345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt except 40 kt N of Dangerous Cape, 
diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 15 kt, except 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas 10 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-151345-
Chiniak Bay-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-151345-
Marmot Bay-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft after
midnight. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-151345-
Shelikof Strait-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-151345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-151345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters
1 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 2 ft. Freezing spray in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-151345-
Kachemak Bay-
331 PM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 PM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A weak upper level ridge is over the Alcan border this afternoon
with largely zonal flow over the Bering Sea. This zonal flow is
starting to be disrupted by an amplifying upper level ridge in
the western Bering Sea which will become a major feature by the
middle of the week. The 250 mb jet stream is already reflecting
this amplification in that a jet streak of around 100 kt has
developed over the northern part of this ridge in the northwest
Bering Sea with a speeds closer to 80 kt at 250 mb over the
eastern Bering. This jet streak will increase over the next few
days with this ridge.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement in the synoptic and all have the
large upper level ridge amplifying in the Bering Sea during the
middle of the week. As is typically the case with good model
agreement, higher resolution models were used to try and refine
winds as temperature forecasts will be highly dependent on the
wind speeds and when there will be enough wind to mix-out the
inversion.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC..Some stratus has lingered around the airport this afternoon
in the wake of last night's snowfall. It does look like drier air
will move into the area and improve the ceilings this evening.
After the stratus lifts it should be VFR conditions for awhile.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Clouds are scattering out over Southcentral as a ridge builds
over the Bering Sea and surface low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska
exits to the southeast. Tonight, temperatures will return to (or
stay in) the negatives for most of Southcentral. Exceptions
include Kodiak Island, Prince William Sound and coastal areas on
the Kenai Peninsula. Continued clearing and stable conditions will
also set the stage for fog over inland areas Tuesday morning. A
cooling trend will continue at least through Wednesday as Arctic
high pressure at the surface strengthens over the Alcan. Offshore
winds out of the usual gaps and passes (Valdez waters,
Resurrection Bay, Whittier and the Copper River Delta) will ramp
up tonight and Tuesday, remaining elevated at least through
Wednesday. A Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect for Thompson
Pass through Wednesday morning. Depending on the amount of
cooling, Broad Pass and the Matanuska Valley will need to be
monitored for potential wind chills down to 40 below late Tuesday
into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
An area of high pressure will continue building into the area
through Tuesday, eventually moving overhead. This will gradually
reduce the onshore flow and turn the winds briefly calm and then
offshore by Wednesday. This will keep snow shower activity and low
stratus and fog in the area both tonight and Tuesday night, ending
by Wednesday. That same high pressure will strengthen over the
interior into Thursday. That will very effectively block the
highly active western Bering storm track from moving into the
area. Thus, expect clearing skies by Thursday with a cooling trend
in the temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
High pressure over the central Bering will move into the eastern
Bering by Tuesday morning, then gradually move into Southwest
Alaska Tuesday night. Underneath the high, conditions will be
relatively quiet, with some snow shower activity, some stratus,
but nothing much to talk about. All of the real action will be
over the western and eventually central Bering. A strong low will
move near Shemya Tuesday morning dragging a front behind it. Ahead
of these features, southeasterly winds will strengthen as the
winds squeeze in between the low over the western Bering and the
high over the eastern Bering. This strong pressure gradient will
kick the winds up to 60 kt over the open waters of the western
Bering. It will also bring in much warmer air as well. The low
will track due north into Kamchatka, as its attending front moves
into the central Bering on Wednesday. Another low will form along
the front on Wednesday, though where exactly it forms is a big
question, with significant disagreement between the models. On the
eastern (warm) side of the low, the winds will kick up once again
into storm force, this time just west of Unalaska Island and up
to the Pribilofs. Once this low moves to the north, the front as a
whole will fall apart by Thursday over the eastern Bering, with
gale force winds expected from Dutch Harbor through the Alaska
Peninsula. Another separate low moves into the western and central
Aleutians on Thursday, but the strengthening high pressure over
mainland Alaska looks to shunt that low to the south and east back
into the North Pacific.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Thursday through Friday the main focus for gales winds are
expected over the Bering as a front slowly lifts north. There is
potential that winds could be stronger Thursday morning across the
Aleutians, however model uncertainty remains high. The next low to
monitor for the Gulf develops across the eastern waters on
Saturday night and then tracks northwest into Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Dry and cold conditions are currently forecast across the southern
mainland Thursday night through the beginning of next week with
active weather mostly impacting Bering. There is a bit of
uncertainty between the models, so the forecast was trended toward
a blend of ensembles which increases precipitation across the
eastern Bering and Gulf during the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory 131.
 Flood Advisory 121.
MARINE...Storm Warning 173>175 177 178 185.
 Gale Warning 127 130 131 132 138 150 170>172 176 179.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 119 121 126 127 129 139 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
MARINE/LONG TERM...KH