Gale Warning 60, NWS Anchorage, AK

299 
FZAK52 PAFC 141220
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-150100-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front associated with a Kamchatka low moves from the western
Aleutians to the central Aleutians Tuesday night. A 994 mb low
forms along this front Tuesday night 270 nm southeast of Adak and
moves 100 nm south of Dutch Harbor Wednesday night at 990 mb.

$$

PKZ150-150100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-150100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt except N 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt except E 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft in the afternoon. From the Shumagin
Islands E, seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-150100-
Bristol Bay-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-150100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, variable wind 10 kt
becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt except E 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 9 ft.
Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-150100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-150100-
Unalaska Bay-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-150100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 17 ft after midnight.
.WED...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ173-150100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 55 kt becoming S 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-150100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. 
Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 55 kt becoming SW 45 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ175-150100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-150100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-150100-
Adak to Kiska-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-150100-
Kiska to Attu-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 55 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-150100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-150100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas in ice
free waters 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray along the ice edge.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray along the ice edge.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-150100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt.
.WED...E wind 35 kt.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-150100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
320 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 35 kt
increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft building to 15 ft
in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 55 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 30 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
741 AM AKST Mon Jan 13 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level trough remains in place over the northern Bering
while a ridge axis is in place over the Alaska-Yukon border.
A broad upper level ridge is in place south of the Aleutian Chain,
bringing a large area of zonal flow to much of the Bering. A weak
upper level shortwave over the central Gulf continues to move
toward the southeastern Gulf. The associated surface low is also
quickly departing the area, leaving gusty northwesterly flow in
its wake.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions remain in good agreement for the short term and are
consistent with the eastward progression and amplification of an
upper level ridge over the Bering midweek. There is also good
consistency regarding conditions upstream of the ridge as a front
associated with a complex Kamchatka low arrives over the western
Bering midweek. Models have been fairly consistent in the timing
and strength of this next system, leading to above average
forecast confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR to IFR conditions in snow are expected through
early Monday morning. MVFR ceilings may be slow to lift to VFR.
Fog in place over Cook Inlet may intermittently lower visibility
at the terminal through the early afternoon. Light winds are
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper trough and weak surface front move east across
Southcentral today. Light snow across the Cook Inlet to MAT-SU
corridor will taper off through this morning as light snow or
flurries move east into the Copper River Basin. Clearing will
likely be slow with stratus and some fog lingering into the
afternoon hours from Cook Inlet to the MAT-SU Valleys, including
the Anchorage Bowl. Clearing of higher clouds will continue
through tonight, however, subsidence with a building upper ridge,
will trap low level moisture and give rise to areas of fog and
stratus over inland areas of Southcentral. Temperatures, although
warmer than in former days, will start to cool down again over
the next couple of days with 850 mb cold advection. Outflow winds
will strengthen across the Kenai Peninsula and north Gulf through
Tuesday night. Cold ambient temps combined with gusty winds will
continue low wind chills through Thompson Pass through Tuesday
night. Depending on the degree of cooling, Broad Pass could see
wind chills approaching 40 below late Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Monday
through Wednesday)...

Southwesterly winds are in place behind a frontal system that
pushed through the region yesterday. Winds will switch to a more
northwesterly direction tonight, as high pressure builds into the
eastern Bering Sea and slowly tracks east through Wednesday. This
high will be the main weather story the next couple of days as it
maintains influence over the area. It will keep weather dry along
with cool temperatures. It looks to be a quiet couple of days for
Southwest Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Monday through Wednesday)...

Zonal flow is present over the Bering while a weak wave is moving
through the central Aleutians. This will all change later today
as high pressure builds into the eastern Bering. Once the high
builds in, it will maintain its influence the next couple of days
as it drifts east. This means quiet weather for the eastern Bering
and eastern Aleutians. Out west, a strong front ahead of a low
pressure system will enter tonight. The strongest part of the
front will arrive tomorrow morning, with storm force winds
forecast for the western Bering/Aleutians. This front will slowly
work its way east to be over the central Aleutians Wednesday, as
the high pressure system to its east slows it considerably. So,
all is quiet in the eastern Bering with active weather out west.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
On Thursday, a storm force low over the northern Bering exits
north overnight while another North Pacific low develops south of
the central Aleutians. There is high uncertainty on the track and
strength of this low on Friday. A second system we are monitoring
is expected to develop across the eastern Gulf Friday night. Once
again, there is high uncertainty on the development of this storm
which could have impacts across the Gulf through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The forecast beginning on Tuesday night across Southcentral will
see a shift toward colder temperatures as a cold front across the
northwest tracks to the Gulf. This front and northwesterly flow
setting up aloft, will increase offshore flow and also along north
to south oriented gaps Tuesday night through Friday. There will
be several wind peaks Tuesday through Friday. The largest focus
for winds in the extended forecast included Broad Pass, Matanuska
Valley, Seward, Whittier, Thompson Pass, Valdez, and the Copper
River Delta.

Active precipitation is expected to mainly impact the Bering and
the Gulf Tuesday through the weekend. Tuesday night a front along
the Bering is reinforced with another developing low along the
base of the trough. This strengthens the front to storm force with
the upper level wave lifting the system to northern waters
Thursday night.

There is high uncertainty in the forecast Thursday through the
weekend as models diverge greatly on the development of two new
storms...one along the western Aleutians and the other over the
eastern Gulf. The extended forecast during this time was updated
with ensemble blends of the GFS and ECMWF which leads to a very
weak pattern advertising higher chances for precipitation across
the Bering and Gulf with a colder and drier pattern over the
southern mainland.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory 131, Flood Advisory 121.
MARINE...Storms: 175, 177, 178, 411, 412, 413.
Gales: 127, 130, 131, 132, 150, 173, 174, 176, 179, 185.
Heavy Freezing Spray: 119, 121, 127, 129.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BJB
MARINE/LONG TERM...KH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1059 AM AKST MON JAN 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 AM     SNOW             SUTTON                  61.71N 148.89W
01/13/2020  E0.8 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 0.75 INCHES OF SNOW.

0805 AM     SNOW             ILIAMNA                 59.76N 154.91W
01/13/2020  E12.0 INCH       LAKE AND PENINSULA AK   PUBLIC

            SPOTTER REPORTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 12
            INCHES ALONG WITH DRIFTING SNOW.

0849 AM     SNOW             POTTER HILL             61.08N 149.82W
01/13/2020  E1.1 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

            SPOTTER REPORTED 1 1/8 INCHES OF SNOW.

0700 AM     SNOW             O'MALLEY AND ROCKBRIDGE 61.12N 149.77W
01/13/2020  M1.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SPOTTER REPORTED 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW.

0700 AM     SNOW             68TH AND ELMORE         61.16N 149.80W
01/13/2020  E1.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SPOTTER REPORTED 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW.

0700 AM     SNOW             ANCHORAGE 7.6 SSE       61.11N 149.85W
01/13/2020  M1.6 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   COCORAHS

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM ANCHORAGE
            7.6 SSE SPOTTER REPORTED 1.6 INCHES OF SNOW.

&&