Gale Warning 54, NWS Anchorage, AK

512 
FZAK52 PAFC 130054
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-131415-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 987 mb low over the Gulf of Anadyr continues north Sun night. A
1003 mb low over the North Pacific Mon morning moves 340 nm
northwest of Attu at 977 mb Tue afternoon. Its front moves into 
the western Aleutians Mon night and reaches the central Aleutians
Tues afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-131415-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-131415-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-131415-
Bristol Bay-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-131415-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-131415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-131415-
Unalaska Bay-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-131415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-131415-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-131415-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-131415-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt shifting to S after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-131415-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 13 ft after midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-131415-
Adak to Kiska-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft building to 19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-131415-
Kiska to Attu-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-131415-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the evening. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-131415-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-131415-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt.
.MON...W wind 25 kt.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt.
.WED...E wind 35 kt.
.THU...E wind 30 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-131415-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
354 PM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...W 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 23 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 25 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 PM AKST Sat Jan 11 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The general pattern consists of a deep upper low over the western
and Central Bering Sea, a sharp ridge centered along about 155
degrees west longitude, and a trough over the northeast Gulf
extending east into western Canada. There is a frontal system
extending from the central Bering across the eastern Aleutians and
western Alaska Peninsula moving towards the northeast. Clouds
from this system are already moving into southwest Alaska. Most of
Southcentral is clear, with just some high clouds starting to move
in from the southwest. Temperatures in Southcentral remain cold,
with weakening offshore flow through gaps in the terrain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement for the short term
portion of the forecast. There are some timing differences with a
developing surface low in the Gulf Sunday and Sunday night as it
races eastward, but due to the high speed of this low it has only
a minor impact on the forecast. Forecast confidence is a bit
higher than normal today.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist into Sunday
afternoon. Late Sunday afternoon conditions should drop to MVFR in
snow as a weak front moves into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Very cold, clear conditions continue over much of Southcentral as
an Arctic air mass over western Canada maintains general northeast
flow. A low moving eastward through the Gulf is enhancing the
pressure gradient between the coast and inland areas. Hence, the
persistent strong offshore gap winds out of the usual bays and
passes: Resurrection Bay, Whittier, Valdez waters and the Copper
River Delta. Tonight, a vertically stacked low in the northwestern
Bering Sea will steer a shortwave trough towards the Southwest
Alaska coast. Expect increased cloud cover from west to east
overnight into Sunday, and a round of light overrunning snow over
Kodiak Island tonight into early Sunday. Increasing cloud cover
will moderate temperatures some tonight, particularly for the
western areas (Kodiak, western Kenai Peninsula). Snow will spread
to the Kenai Peninsula by midday Sunday. The western Kenai may
initially be shadowed due to down sloping. But, precipitation
should eventually reach the ground as a closed low forms south of
the peninsula and slows the progression of the system, allowing
the column to saturate. For most of Southcentral, temperatures
will trend a good 10 degrees warmer than today. Expect snow to
reach the Anchorage Bowl Sunday night... the devil is in the
details. The track of the low will be important and there's still
enough disagreement to maintain some level uncertainty with snow
amounts. Right now, expect around an inch of light, fluffy snow Sunday
night in the Anchorage Bowl. With widespread cloud cover by
Sunday night, most of Southcentral will have overnight lows above
zero. The Copper River Valley will remain 20 to 30 below zero.
Precipitation will clear up Monday and offshore winds will begin
to ramp back up as the Gulf low drifts east out of the area and
surface high pressure builds over the Alcan.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Tuesday)...

A front over Bering is moving ashore into Southwest Alaska this
evening. As it moves into the area, snow is beginning to break
out from the coast of the Kuskokwim Delta south through Cape
Newenham. It is helping transport warmer air into the area. For
almost everyone, it will not be warm enough for rain. The gusty
winds and falling snow will lead to blowing snow conditions along
the coast tonight. Thus the Winter Weather Advisory for the
Kuskokwim Delta remains in effect, though now primarily for
blowing snow along the coast. Once the snow moves inland from the
coast, conditions will improve. Since it will shift inland from
the coast earlier, the Advisory time has been shortened to end at
9am tomorrow. Meanwhile, further inland, several inches of snow
are expected, but amounts have been lowered somewhat due to weaker
lift, warmer temperatures, and slightly less moisture. 3 to 6
inches are expected over the Kuskokwim Delta.

The snow will overspread the rest of Southwest Alaska tonight.
With better lift further south and east, the Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect through 3pm Sunday. Blowing snow will
be the primary concern at the coast, with snowfall amounts of 4 to
8 inches expected generally along a Dillingham to Port Alsworth
line. The lift is weaker further north, so sub-advisory snow
amounts remain in the forecast for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley,
where 3 to 6 inches of snow are expected. It is over the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley, in the foothills of the Alaska Range, that the
snow will persist longest, likely not ending until after sunset on
Sunday.

Broad onshore flow off the Bering will persist into Monday, with
scattered snow showers possible along the coast. Elsewhere,
clouds will persist through Monday, with the most notable clearing
beginning Monday night into Tuesday as a strong area of high
pressure builds in. This high pressure and clear skies will allow
temperatures to drop, so this period will feature a cooling trend,
with lows by Tuesday night back in the zero to 10 above range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Tuesday)...

A strong occluded low moving into the Kamchatka Peninsula this
evening is dragging its leading front across the Eastern Bering.
The front moves completely ashore in Western AK by Sunday morning,
making for strong westerly flow with somewhat colder air allowing
widespread snow showers to form over much of the Bering. This
will persist through Monday across the eastern Bering. Meanwhile,
a developing low will move into the western Aleutians late Monday
night. It will track north towards Kamchatka as well, leaving its
storm force front dragging much warmer air north across the
western Bering, in addition to soaking rains. Strong ridging and
associated surface high pressure ahead of it will keep the front
moving only slowly eastward. This will create strengthening
southeasterly winds ahead of the front over the central Bering and
Pribilofs by Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5...Tue through Thu)...
The western gulf will see gusty northerly flow continuing through
Wednesday of next week as the pressure gradient tights between
low pressure near the Gulf and a ridge moving to the Southwest
mainland. Small craft to gale force winds will taper down for a
short time Monday night; however, gusty winds return by late
Tuesday morning. Across the Bering...relatively quiet weather on
Monday is followed by a gale force front moving to the western
Bering Monday night. This front moves slowly across to the
central Bering on Wednesday. There is still high uncertainty on
the strength of the front on Wednesday and it should be monitored
as it has the potential to be stronger than currently forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Tue through Sat)...
Dry and colder than normal conditions are on tap for much of the
southern mainland in the extended forecast Monday night through
Saturday. A few snow showers will be possible across the
southwest as several weak fronts push inland. The Bering will see
the most active weather pattern as a North Pacific storm sends a
front across the western Aleutians late Monday night. This front
moves slowly east bringing strong gusty winds and rain from the
Eastern Aleutians to Pribilof Islands. There is still some
uncertainty on the strength of this system and should be monitored
for updates. A ridge will build over the eastern Bering and force
the jet to reorient from north to south across the southern
mainland. This could result in a stronger than normal offshore
wind pattern for many favored locations. Otherwise, the forecast
for Wednesday night through Saturday will generally be a
persistent forecast with dry, cold conditions over the southern
mainland and active weather over Bering and Gulf.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisories 161 155
         Wind Chill Advisory 131
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 119 127 128 130 139
		 Gale Warning  411 412 165 170 172 185 351 352 130-132 139.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
MARINE/LONG TERM...KH