Gale Warning 53, NWS Anchorage, AK

444 
FZAK52 PAFC 121244
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-130200-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 977 mb low 400 nm north of Saint Paul Island moves north and 
exits the Bering Sunday night. A ridge builds over the Bering 
Monday morning. A front associated with a Kamchatka low approaches
the western Aleutians Monday morning and reaches the central 
Aleutians Monday night.

$$

PKZ150-130200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 13
ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-130200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-130200-
Bristol Bay-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-130200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt except W 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 11
ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-130200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ171-130200-
Unalaska Bay-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-130200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ173-130200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ174-130200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-130200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming SE 40 kt. 
Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-130200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming SE 40 kt. 
Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-130200-
Adak to Kiska-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-130200-
Kiska to Attu-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ179-130200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ180-130200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing
spray.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-130200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-130200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 12 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SW 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 26 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...W 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 23 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.WED...E wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
422 AM AKST Sat Jan 11 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A persistent 1036 mb surface ridge nestled across the Al-Can
border continues to keep arctic air firmly entrenched from the
upper Kuskokwim Delta east to the Copper River Basin. An upper-
level shortwave, coupled with the development of a compact surface
low near Middleton Island, have also allowed the northerly
outflow winds to continue from Seward to Prince William Sound and
the Copper River Delta. Periodic northerly gusts have also
developed across the northern Susitna Valley and across a
channeled corridor of the Glen in the MatSu. These winds have
allowed the temperature oscillate between -15F and +15F for
places like Talkeetna and Wasilla overnight. High cloud cover is
on the increase over the southern half of the Kenai Peninsula as a
front moves over the interior of the state. Snow has ended across
the eastern half of Kodiak Island as a low in the western Gulf
races east.

Farther west, a weakening occluded front stretches from Aniak to
Iliamna. Along and ahead of this front, light snow is falling.
Behind the front, the snow has transitioned to snow showers.
Warmer air has also advected in along the coast, with overnight
temperatures climbing into the mid 20s to lower 30s from King
Salmon and Cape Newenham north to Hooper Bay.

For the Bering and Aleutians, westerly flow around a deep area of
low pressure lifting north toward the Russian coast is advecting
colder air across the region with temperatures dropping back into
the 30s. Infrared satellite imagery shows the development of a
North Pacific low along a frontal boundary draped across the
central Bering beginning to lift north toward Dutch Harbor.

Yesterday, the southerly flow across the eastern Aleutians and
southern AKPEN pushed the daytime temperature in Cold Bay to a
daily record of 50F while evening temperatures across the Yukon
Flats dropped to -50F (Fort Yukon). This made for an impressive
100 degree temperature swing across the state.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern
across the forecast area through the weekend. There is some model
divergence in the progression of the front into Southcentral and
the development of a triple-point low near Kodiak by Sunday, with
the NAM still trying to develop some degree of downsloping across
the western Kenai and Anchorage Bowl on Sunday. It is, however,
also more bullish in the amount of accumulating snow from Kenai
north across the Susitna valley late Sunday into Monday as the
upper-trough moves through. How these systems interact and evolve
will also have some impact on winds and temperatures. However,
even with these distinctions, the resulting sensible weather does
not appear significantly different.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to persist.
Clouds will be on the increase Sunday morning as a front
approaches; however, any potential reduction to ceiling and/or
visibility is expected to occur after 18z Sunday (current TAF
package).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

Very cold, arctic air remains over the Copper River Basin. This
combined with the tight pressure gradient that has remained
stationary over the north Gulf coast continues to promote strong
winds out of bays and passes. These gap winds will increase when a
tertiary component comes into play, a triple point low developing
Sunday near Kodiak Island. This third addition to our synoptic
pattern will effectively further strengthen the already intact
pressure gradient to increase gap winds Sunday into Monday. Due to
the remaining cold temperatures and wind chills in Thompson Pass
a Wind Chill Advisory has been issued through Sunday at noon AKST.
Expect wind chill temperatures as low as 50 below through this
timeframe.

The triple point low which develops near Kodiak Island Sunday will
combine with an upper level short-wave to produce widespread
precipitation across the western Gulf/Kodiak Island northward to
the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the Mat-Su. The upper trough
will split, with some of the energy diving southeastward into the
Gulf and some of the energy lifting northward up Cook Inlet.
Thus, it will weaken as it crosses Southcentral.

Southeast winds will develop ahead of the low across the Kenai
Mountains. While this could produce some downsloping on the
western Kenai, winds are weaker and more southerly as you head
north to Anchorage. For Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley, a
light dusting is possible Sunday. Snow is likely Sunday night for
these areas right ahead of the upper trough and as flow shifts to
southwest to west. It doesn't look like a lot of snow - perhaps
an inch or two accumulation. While precipitation will remain all
snow for Southcentral, Kodiak Island will likely see a mix of rain
and snow, as easterly winds off the warm Gulf waters warm surface
temperatures above freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A few snow showers will linger across Southwest Alaska this
morning as a front continues to weaken. A brief period of dry and
clear conditions set it late this morning through the early
afternoon, allowing for temperatures to continue on their upward
trend before the next system moves in.

A frontal boundary associated with a deepening upper level
shortwave will be the main focus starting this afternoon. Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay as this system is expected to see blowing snow
conditions on the front edge of the front along the Southwest
coast. As it moves inland later today into tomorrow, advisory
level snowfall amounts (6 inches in 12 hours) is likely for areas
in the Kuskokwim Delta and north and west of King Salmon in the
Greater Bristol Bay area. Blowing snow conditions will also occur
near Iliamna for Sunday morning as the system continue to move
farther inland.

The Lower Kuskokwim Valley will also see a few inches of snowfall
from this system, but it is less certain that they will see
advisory level amounts like areas closer to the coast. For this
reason, an advisory has not been issued, but will continue to be
monitored to see how well organized the frontal system remains
once farther inland. Snow showers will begin to taper off on
Monday as this system weakens.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Scatterometer imagery this morning shows a strong core of high end
gale force winds over much of the western and central Bering this
morning associated with a low center north of Shemya. Winds will
slowly weaken to small craft advisory level through Sunday as the
low continues to lift northward out of the forecast area.

A fast moving moving frontal boundary crosses over the central
Aleutians, extending to the Pribilofs late this morning into the
afternoon, which will bring a solid area of rain and snow across
the region. As the system moves eastward through the afternoon,
strong gap winds can be expected for areas north of the eastern
Chain and AKPEN through the evening hours. By Sunday, conditions
over the Bering improve, with only a weak fast moving low bringing
an area of small craft advisory levels winds over the south
central Bering through Monday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
The western gulf will see gusty northerly flow Monday through
Wednesday of next week as the pressure gradient tights between low
pressure near the Gulf and a ridge moving to the Southwest
mainland. Small craft to gale force winds will taper down for a
short time Monday night; however, gusty winds return by late
Tuesday Morning. Across the Bering...relatively quiet weather on
Monday is followed by a gale force front moving to the western
waters Monday night. This front moves slowly across to the
central waters on Wednesday. There is still high uncertainty on
the strength of the front on Wednesday and should be monitored as
it has the potential to be stronger than currently forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Dry and colder than normal conditions are on tap for much of the
southern mainland in the extended forecast Monday night through
Friday. A few snow showers will be possible across the southwest
as several weak fronts push inland. The Bering will see the most
active weather pattern as a North Pacific storm send a front to
the across the western Aleutians late Monday night. This front
moves slowly east bringing strong gusty winds and rain to the
Eastern Aleutians to Pribilof Islands. There is still some
uncertainty on the strength of this system and should be monitored
for updates. The forecast for Wednesday night through Friday will
generally be a persistent forecast with dry cold conditions over
the southern mainland and active weather over Bering and Gulf.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 121.
         Wind Chill Advisory 131.
         Winter Weather Advisory 155 161.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 119 127 128 130 139 140.
         Gale Warning 127 128 130 132 139 155 170>172 177>179
         181 185 411>413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CK/SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...KH